ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[lonelymike]

Looks like a buzz saw in that frame doesn't he

[Windtalker1]

That's quite a limb.

And a very Strong Limb it is . I'm sorry, without any recon yet, I am having trouble beliving all the models especially seeing this westward motion and if Igor is indeed going through an ERC and grows weaker for a time, I believe he will continue on that westward track until he grows stronger again. Let's all wait till tomorrow and see what happens to the models after all that data is imputed in.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cpdaman]

i would not put my little toe's weight on that limb....

but i do agree the track will be interesting to watch and see when a true WNW motion starts.

[O Town]

On water vapor imagery you can see the trough digging down on its way to pick up Igor.

[brunota2003]

Just glancing at the loop...the north edge of the eye did make it up to 18N, but it looks like it is pulling away some...again.

[Windtalker1]

On that water vapor image, it looks to me like it is going to miss him and flatten out, giving the ridge time to build back in.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormhunter7]

seem that the more northward motion started this after noon?

MIMIC imagery shows a gradual northward movement as Igo moves west? Igor gets close and closer to 18N

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[LCfromFL]

I remember Hurricane Floyd - how they kept saying it would make the turn...and it kept going further west. If I remember correctly, the Keys to parts of Virginia were evacuated. It was all about the 'when' the turn would begin....which kept being pushed back. I'm sure they've tweaked the models a bit since 1999.

[cpdaman]

seem that the more northward motion started this after noon?

MIMIC imagery shows a gradual northward movement as Igo moves west? Igor gets close and closer to 18N

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

thank you i knew i had a good eye.... hey KWT it is clear.....about 280....as the loop shows between 12 and 8 pm. might be a wobble SW right after loop runs out....but then it will wobble back WNW as it has in the latest ramdis loop. but 280 is still officially "West" prob about 278 between noon and 10 pm.

[Windtalker1]

seem that the more northward motion started this after noon?

MIMIC imagery shows a gradual northward movement as Igo moves west? Igor gets close and closer to 18N

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Yes, I have to admit that He was tugged to the North for a bit, I would not call it his start of a WNW motion due to the fact that his heading has adveraged around 275 for the last 6 hrs.

[hurricaneCW]

Igor will make his turn very, very soon. The current trough is not the one that picks him up and recurves him. The current trough is what will induce the wnw/nw movement. Another shortwave will head off the east coast and that will not allow the ridging to rebuild and cause Igor to recurve near Bermuda. The bad news is that if the turn is delayed a bit further, then Igor could pass either right over or just to the west of Bermuda, giving them the worst side of the storm.

[jonj2040]

Hi I new here (but I've been lurking for years) this is a real nice weather community, and I've always heard about D-min having something to do with waning convection. Is this warming of convection due to D-min (is this even the time or hour that D-min occurs), or is this actual weakening of Igor do to dry shear air or some other factor.
thanks

[Windtalker1]

Igor will make his turn very, very soon. The current trough is not the one that picks him up and recurves him. The current trough is what will induce the wnw/nw movement. Another shortwave will head off the east coast and that will not allow the ridging to rebuild and cause Igor to recurve near Bermuda. The bad news is that if the turn is delayed a bit further, then Igor could pass either right over or just to the west of Bermuda, giving them the worst side of the storm.

Here in TN we have no fronts coming through until Thursday Night/Friday Morning which means it will not be off the coast until maybe Sunday? Where will Igor be on Sunday?

[Aric Dunn]

The latest steering analysis still has a ridging in place in the upper steering levels. it actually over the past 6 hours ( at least according cimss) has build in a little more or become better defined. not sure it will hold but it would explain its reluctant to turn.

just toggle back and forth between the different hours.. and 500 and above levels..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[wxman57]

Igor will turn east of the Caribbean. But it may cross 20N between 56W-58w rather than 55W as per last NHC track.

[canes101]

I remember Hurricane Floyd - how they kept saying it would make the turn...and it kept going further west. If I remember correctly, the Keys to parts of Virginia were evacuated. It was all about the 'when' the turn would begin....which kept being pushed back. I'm sure they've tweaked the models a bit since 1999.

Code: Select all

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999H/FLOYD/track.gif[/img]

Im curious. Does anyone have a link that would show where it was originally suppose to turn north etc?

[psyclone]

I agree that Igor will turn east of the caribbean but thank goodness they have a pretty good margin to work with...it allows the cyclone to deviate quite a bit from the projected track and still have room to spare.

[Aric Dunn]

I remember Hurricane Floyd - how they kept saying it would make the turn...and it kept going further west. If I remember correctly, the Keys to parts of Virginia were evacuated. It was all about the 'when' the turn would begin....which kept being pushed back. I'm sure they've tweaked the models a bit since 1999.

Code: Select all

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999H/FLOYD/track.gif[/img]

Im curious. Does anyone have a link that would show where it was originally suppose to turn north etc?

this was about all i could find

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Floyd/images/Track3_hi.jpg

[hurricaneCW]

Generally if a storm was meant to get further west, then a majority of models would show that. Floyd was meant to get further west and so was Ike. With Earl, generally the models showed it going no further west than 75W which is exactly what he did. Igor will not get further west than what a majority of the models show which is between 60-65W.