ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[canes101]

Igor will turn east of the Caribbean. But it may cross 20N between 56W-58w rather than 55W as per last NHC track.

Well if it makes it to 58 before 20 then the Northern Islands could definitely be feeling some affects no?

[deltadog03]

I still don't see how some people think this is going at 280... Its not. I agree with wxman...It will prolly cross 20N at 56-58W Nice BUST GFS!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

I still don't see how some people think this is going at 280... Its not. I agree with wxman...It will prolly cross 20N at 56-58W Nice BUST GFS!!!!

exactly its still between 270 to 275..

[hurricaneCW]

I think 56-58W at 20N is was too far west. I would go with 53-55W at 20N.

[BigA]

For all the talk about the direction in which this is moving, it's all academic except for Bermuda and perhaps the Canadian Maratimes. There is almost no conceivable way that Igor could flout the models and reach the east coast. The synoptic set-up just isn't there. Right now the debate is whether the farthest west it gets is 63, 65, or 67.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC mentions the ERC starting..

[gixxer]

I remember Hurricane Floyd - how they kept saying it would make the turn...and it kept going further west. If I remember correctly, the Keys to parts of Virginia were evacuated. It was all about the 'when' the turn would begin....which kept being pushed back. I'm sure they've tweaked the models a bit since 1999.

Code: Select all

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999H/FLOYD/track.gif[/img]

Im curious. Does anyone have a link that would show where it was originally suppose to turn north etc?

http://www.stormpulse.com/ is actually pretty cool you can zoom in and use track history and some of the main models too its worth checking out.

[Florida1118]

..."IGOR JUST WILL NOT BUDGE VERY MUCH TO THE NORTH AND IS MOVING 275
DEGREES AT 8 KT"...
Shocker.

[brunota2003]

IGOR JUST WILL NOT BUDGE VERY MUCH TO THE NORTH AND IS MOVING 275
DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE UKMET MODEL HAS CAPTURED THIS MOTION WELL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE IS STILL
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE BEGINNING OF A TURN...THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE UKMET.

The UKMET nails one thus far? Well, guess a dead clock is right twice a day

[wxman57]

Igor will turn east of the Caribbean. But it may cross 20N between 56W-58w rather than 55W as per last NHC track.

Well if it makes it to 58 before 20 then the Northern Islands could definitely be feeling some affects no?

20N/58W would be nearly 300 miles from the NE Caribbean. At that distance they might see some cirrus outflow but no squalls. Some large NE well, too.

[brunota2003]

The newest NHC forecast has it crossing 20N just on the other side of 55W

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like the trough is beginning to lift out, I don't know about this turn.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 5java.html

[wxman57]

I think 56-58W at 20N is way too far west. I would go with 53-55W at 20N.

To hit 20N/53W it would have to track at 321 degrees from its current location. To hit 20N/55W would require an average heading of 301 degrees from the current position. In contrast, 20N/56W requires a 306 deg heading and 20N/58W would require a heading of 289 degrees from its current location.

Not a lot of heading difference between about 55W and 58W, but I don't think it'll turn NW immediately to make that 321 deg heading to hit 53W.

[deltadog03]

Honestly, this non-turn **YET** shouldn't really suprise most people. Look at the steering flow and don't just pay attention to US generated models all the time.

[Dean4Storms]

Honestly, this non-turn **YET** shouldn't really suprise most people. Look at the steering flow and don't just pay attention to US generated models all the time.

Right on, Right on, Right on!!!

[hurricaneCW]

I think 56-58W at 20N is way too far west. I would go with 53-55W at 20N.

To hit 20N/53W it would have to track at 321 degrees from its current location. To hit 20N/55W would require an average heading of 301 degrees from the current position. In contrast, 20N/56W requires a 306 deg heading and 20N/58W would require a heading of 289 degrees from its current location.

Not a lot of heading difference between about 55W and 58W, but I don't think it'll turn NW immediately to make that 321 deg heading to hit 53W.

Wait, so, it has to head slightly further to the nw to get further west. 301 degree to hit 20N/55W and 306 degrees to hit 20N/56W.

[brunota2003]

I think 56-58W at 20N is way too far west. I would go with 53-55W at 20N.

To hit 20N/53W it would have to track at 321 degrees from its current location. To hit 20N/55W would require an average heading of 301 degrees from the current position. In contrast, 20N/56W requires a 306 deg heading and 20N/58W would require a heading of 289 degrees from its current location.

Not a lot of heading difference between about 55W and 58W, but I don't think it'll turn NW immediately to make that 321 deg heading to hit 53W.

Wait, so, it has to head slightly further to the nw to get further west. 301 degree to hit 20N/55W and 306 degrees to hit 20N/56W.

I think those two are supposed to be flipped around.

[Steve H.]

Honestly, Igor is getting rather tiring. Hopefully he pulls north and gets out to the North Atlantic quickly. I need some sleep.

[plasticup]

I remember Hurricane Floyd - how they kept saying it would make the turn...and it kept going further west. If I remember correctly, the Keys to parts of Virginia were evacuated. It was all about the 'when' the turn would begin....which kept being pushed back. I'm sure they've tweaked the models a bit since 1999.

Code: Select all

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999H/FLOYD/track.gif[/img]

Im curious. Does anyone have a link that would show where it was originally suppose to turn north etc?

You can read all of the old discussions, if you'd like:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/FLOYD.html

Just picking one from September 9, 1999:

FLOYD HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.
THE TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY A WELL
DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS TROUGH MAY FORCE FLOYD ON A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND EVEN NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO HINT THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FORECAST PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A MORE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INSTEAD OF A NORTHWARD TURN OVER OPEN
WATERS.

So by September 9th they were moving away from the northward solution. Maybe they came back to that theory later? I'm not interested enough to comb through that archive, but I'm sure your answer is in there!

[bvigal]

Track of Igor, below. 17.7N 11pm Saturday night, and 11pm tonight, 48hrs later. Whether it has begun a track north is not a matter for conjecture, it just hasn't happened yet.

Code: Select all

Date: 08-14 SEP 2010
Hurricane-4 IGOR
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  13.70  -23.50 09/08/15Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 1A  13.70  -23.70 09/08/18Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  2  13.90  -23.90 09/08/21Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 2A  13.90  -24.20 09/09/00Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  3  13.80  -24.60 09/09/03Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 3A  13.80  -24.80 09/09/06Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4  13.80  -24.30 09/09/09Z   35  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 4A  14.10  -24.20 09/09/12Z   35  1006 TROPICAL STORM
  5  14.70  -24.80 09/09/15Z   35  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 5A  15.50  -25.40 09/09/18Z   35  1006 TROPICAL STORM
  6  16.00  -26.40 09/09/21Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  7  15.40  -28.00 09/10/03Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  8  16.00  -29.30 09/10/09Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  9  16.40  -31.00 09/10/15Z   35  1004 TROPICAL STORM
 10  16.70  -33.30 09/10/21Z   40  1002 TROPICAL STORM
 11  17.10  -34.90 09/11/03Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 12  17.10  -37.80 09/11/09Z   60   995 TROPICAL STORM
 13  17.40  -39.50 09/11/15Z   60   995 TROPICAL STORM
 14  17.40  -41.20 09/11/21Z   60   995 TROPICAL STORM
 15  17.70  -42.50 09/12/03Z   65   992 HURRICANE-1
 16  17.70  -44.40 09/12/09Z   70   988 HURRICANE-1
 17  17.70  -45.70 09/12/15Z   90   970 HURRICANE-2
 18  17.70  -46.10 09/12/18Z  115   950 HURRICANE-4
 19  17.70  -46.90 09/12/21Z  120   942 HURRICANE-4
 20  17.60  -47.80 09/13/03Z  130   935 HURRICANE-4
 21  17.70  -48.80 09/13/09Z  130   935 HURRICANE-4
 22  17.50  -49.70 09/13/15Z  130   933 HURRICANE-4
 23  17.70  -50.50 09/13/21Z  130   933 HURRICANE-4
 24  17.70  -51.20 09/14/03Z  120   937 HURRICANE-4