Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[Vortex]

wow! FL hit again according to 12Z GFS in the long range from carribean low

[BigA]

The GFS consistency from run to run in developing this is noteworthy.

[Vortex]

Ivan, at work so I can’t determine where this low originates from…Any idea?

[Ivanhater]

Pretty much due north from SW Florida into Georgia..a Gulf threat is a concern

[KWT]

Not an unrealistic forecast BUT if the modelsd are right and there is a pattern change then likely the most realistic evolution would be actually something close to what 92L is doing right now.

That being said its far harder to forecast long range in late September/October then it is in say July/August simply because everything is in a state of flux.

Either way this one is IMO a real threat going forwards, I've said before that there is a very high risk of major hurricanes in the CAribbean in warm phase AMO La Nina years...I see no reason why this year will be different!

[Ivanhater]

And finally to end the run bumps NW into the Tennessee valley. And the storms keep on rolling

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, at work so I can’t determine where this low originates from…Any idea?

The wave coming off the coast now. The GFS has consistently split the vorticity.

[Vortex]

Thanks

[cycloneye]

There it is.

[Vortex]

The important thing to take from the recent GFS runs is that weeks prior to the CV season getting going it did well indicating the parade of storms that would follow. Now were seeing similar indications across the Carribean/Fl….Likely a good indicator of pending activity in this region.

[Weatherfreak000]

And finally to end the run bumps NW into the Tennessee valley. And the storms keep on rolling

If that were to verify I would be utterly speechless, there has been NO breaks whatsoever since August 22nd it's been continuous action.

[wxman22]

Slight;ly off topic but did anyone notice how strong the trough the GFS brings down that pushes the system towards Florida? 1030mb high with the 0c line diving into the Midwest thats pretty unusual for this time of year if it were to verify ofcourse thats why its called lala land lol

[Macrocane]

Yeah, I don't remember such a strong cold high so early in recent years.

[KWT]

Thats why I suspect this one will roll through the Caribbean into Mexico in the end rather then recurve into the Gulf states...but I do think the 06/12z evolutions will happen at some point in the next month even if they don't with this one....

Think the action is about to shift westwards after Julia...

[otowntiger]

wow! FL hit again according to 12Z GFS in the long range from carribean low

At least it's only a 974 mb low. That would equate to a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2, right? I think FL can handle that.

[South Texas Storms]

i agree kwt, i dont see that big S.E. US ridge breaking until october.

[Macrocane]

that big would be the big relief to the heat that you have been expecting

[Stormcenter]

That's why if this were to pan out (highly unlikely) it would probably
be a Florida panhandle and to points eastward event. IMO

:uarrow: Yeah, I don't remember such a strong cold high so early in recent years.

[Vortex]

all the globals on the 12z run take this system north as an early recurve...it appears that part of the same vorticity splits and one part of the vorticity develops quickly and the other heads west towards the carribean without much development until it nears the carribean....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif

[Vortex]

excellent presentation on the 12Z HWRF run of what may happen...notice the system nearing the carribean...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation