ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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Steve
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#721 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:35 pm

>>Off topic a bit but I found it a little funny that those here who weeks ago were shouting that this season is a colossal bust seem to be very quiet these days.

That's because they had to be right. They were just dying for a feather in their proverbial caps that they were mistaking for credibility. You remember the old line about the light at the end of the tunnel? Yeah, it was a freight train. We'll be at Named Storm #11 within a day or two (September 14/15/16). That's not bad considering we're probably still going to see another 4 or 5 named storms (conservatively) by the end of October. Certainly some were paranoid about hyper-activity and others were prognosticating on about what is wrong with this season blah blah blah blah blah. The latter was ignorant because instead of following along with the obvious - western basin biased, late blooming, > average ACE, # of storms, etc. that were obvious signs of where we were headed, they had to keep harping on the then and now (e.g. all those "upper level lows - 2010 the season of upper level lows!" ) All the while, certain posters ;) kept noting they were a sign of things to come. Be patient. Watch and learn. But no. They couldn't help themselves. There were a lot of posters off their medications who seem to have quietly been put back on those prescriptions. Unfortunately for them, they can no longer clammor about as their ideas were debunked, and they were exposed for being impatient to the point of imprudence.

Oh and Sanibel, I doubt seriously anyone was referring to you. You've always been one of the best posters on the site. I read everything you put out there. But there were others who maybe are spending more time doing homework (grades 8-10 no doubt).

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Last edited by Steve on Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#722 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:43 pm

I think a lot of posters need to slow down and read the comments a little better. No matter if we hit the numbers or not, playing the numbers game is idiotic. ACE tells you how strong a season is, numbers tell you how lucky/unlucky you are. 3 giant hurricanes moving through the Caribbean over a 3 week period is going to make for a huge, destructive, and high ACE season. Compared to that the number of storms in the Caribbean doesn't mean much.

I'll button my lip now, as far as this off topic rant is concerned. :)

The kids predicting a slow season are all back in school and doing their homework in the evening. :cheesy:
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#723 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:44 pm

(e.g. all those "upper level lows - 2010 the season of upper level lows!" )[/Quote]



I remember that! :lol: from memory they did the same in the lull period that occurred in 2005. The 2005 Hurricane Season they were season canceling! I think a TUTT would cry in fear at the intensity of the Atlantic Ocean right now. :lol: Igor would probably eat a ULL like it was fourth meal at taco bell.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#724 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:47 pm

Blame me for the OT rants as I started it. :oops:

"C'mon Port, you're a moderator now. You should know better!" you might say. Sorry gang.

Point of clarification: My initial post was definitely NOT referring to Sanibel whom I hold in high regard on this forum.

Now let's get back to the soon-to-be-named tropical system currently known as 92L.
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superfly

#725 Postby superfly » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:48 pm

Recon will find a TS by the time they get there. Looks very nice this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#726 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:49 pm

tolakram wrote:I think a lot of posters need to slow down and read the comments a little better. No matter if we hit the numbers or not, playing the numbers game is idiotic. ACE tells you how strong a season is, numbers tell you how lucky/unlucky you are. 3 giant hurricanes moving through the Caribbean over a 3 week period is going to make for a huge, destructive, and high ACE season. Compared to that the number of storms in the Caribbean doesn't mean much.

I'll button my lip now, as far as this off topic rant is concerned. :)

The kids predicting a slow season are all back in school and doing their homework in the evening. :cheesy:


Right now ACE is at 81.2625
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#727 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:50 pm

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Re: Re:

#728 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I would not be surprised if we have Hurricane Karl before landfall.


First or second landfall?


First landfall. I think this could absolutely BOMB in the next 24 hours.


It'd have to probably match Lorenzo/Humberto's record for rapid development for that to occur...that being said I could well see a decent strength TS into the Yucatan like we saw with Alex...

Amazing how fast things can flip once you get to the W.Caribbean...hopefully when we get another system in the Caribbean this season (sorry but I'm pretty sure we will get another one!) people will remember that.
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cwachal

#729 Postby cwachal » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:59 pm

how do conditions look in the BOC once this storm gets there???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#730 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:26 pm

SAB Dvorak.

14/1745 UTC 18.1N 83.7W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic

TD numbers.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#731 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:28 pm

I still think it's kind of broad; I mean surface obs are good enough for a TD. But more than 35-45 knot TS prior to the Yucatan, I can't see that.
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#732 Postby blazess556 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:29 pm

58 knots SMFR
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cwachal

#733 Postby cwachal » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:30 pm

NO WAY is that accurate with only a 1004 mb pressure do we have a 60 knt storm or even a 50 knt storm
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Re:

#734 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:31 pm

blazess556 wrote:58 knots SMFR


181900 1815N 08357W 9702 00319 //// +195 //// 351014 016 058 031 05

5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
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#735 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:31 pm

it has an 05 at the end, which means that the SMFR is questionable
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#736 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:32 pm

There was a 57 kt SFMR unflagged. Given the feeble FL winds, I would blend out to 45 kt unless new data comes in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#737 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:32 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

FF:
Quality control flags.

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable
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#738 Postby blazess556 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:32 pm

i know and I agree with you. they are flying really low at 970 mb.
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#739 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:34 pm

What a month!
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#740 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:36 pm

Its easily a TD. could be a TS just have to wait and see if they can find some real reliable winds. But I think they will.
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