ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

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KWT
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#1421 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 5:57 pm

Still looks like an amazing hurricane to me and this one may well pass very close to Bermuda and so hopefully we may get good radar images though hopefully it does miss, 100-110kts sounds reasonable sort of strength at Bermuda IMO...though dry air by then may start to weaken it a little as well if the models are right.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1422 Postby Migle » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:05 pm

rosethornil wrote:Still waiting for one of the smart people to offer a prediction as to when this thing will get close to the East Coast. In other words, when should we panic? :double:


No. This one should stay well away from the East Coast and Virginia. Only problems the East Coast should have is the rip currents like they faced with Danielle. Now, Canada is a different story though.
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#1423 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:10 pm

Small 6-9hr motion 'wobbles' now may already start to either slightly decrease or raise the risk to Bermuda. The fact its currently tracking close to the track isn't a great sign though unless the NHC nail the 5 day position it will probably be a touch east/west of Bermuda...
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1424 Postby TheBurn » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:14 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1425 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:18 pm

The worst case is if Igor is just to the west of Bermuda. They could potentially be dealing with the same conditions as they did with Hurricane Fabian. I'm not sure what to make of Igor right now, the eye has recently contracted quite a bit and the outflow seems to be constricted on its west side, but regardless of that, it's still a breathtaking hurricane to look at.

From a tropical enthusiast point of view, the data from Igor as it passes near Bermuda from the island should prove very interesting plus any webcams will be cool to see.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1426 Postby Riptide » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:26 pm

Wow, Igor is becoming absolutely massive. This one will be fun to track.
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#1427 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:29 pm

Yeah HCW, that being said the good news is the odds of Bermuda getting the eyewall are still very slim at this stage even if they were to get a direct hit, still obviously people should still pay very close attention to this, esp if you are in Bermuda!
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#1428 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:36 pm

The only good news is that some dry air is trying to get into Igor. If that channel closes off though, Cat 5 seems quite possible.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1429 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:40 pm

I don't see dry air being as big of a problem as with Earl, Igor has a broader area of moisture around it. It might be undergoing an EWRC. Dry air tends to be more present during storms that undergo EWRC and this one has been very intense for a while. I can't wait to get recon into this storm to see what's really going on. I think Igor may have even reached Cat 5 intensity for a brief time yesterday, but we'll never know. It could still become a Cat 5 given conditions are still rather ideal for the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1430 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:54 pm

Anyone else seeing strong westerly wobbles?
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1431 Postby Battlebrick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:00 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Anyone else seeing strong westerly wobbles?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irE1_an.gif

another wobble to the W, maybe even WSW, gonna wait to see in the next couple of frames.
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1432 Postby O Town » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:03 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Anyone else seeing strong westerly wobbles?


No, just the last frame was a slight westerly wobble. Its stair stepping right on NHC track it seems.


Image
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1433 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:03 pm

yes i see the wobbles....but ....the NHC did mention this in the 5pm disco ...that igor may take on a more westerly wobble for the next few hours.....

the biggest difference in forecast track future....is the synoptic setup i see on the 12z euro and wether the euro is consistent with this feature tonite .....if so it's an eye opener....if not.....then these wobbles may matter for bermuda.

fyi the 12z euro takes igor well SW of bermuda via a north/central atlantic high that noses/builds SW and on top and around igor late thur nite thru sat....and brings him close enough to scare the folks on the outerbanks...before recurving very sharply out to see at around 36 N
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Hurricane - Discussion

#1434 Postby cpdaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:06 pm

latest frame on ramdis (seems to be ahead of the other sites) 745....shows deep convection on the NW side now....and the best igor this pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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#1435 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:13 pm

14/2345 UTC 18.9N 53.4W T7.0/7.0 IGOR -- Atlantic
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#1436 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:14 pm

Based on that and other data, I would go 135 kt for Igor. I want to see that dry air channel gone before going up to Cat 5.
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#1437 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:15 pm

Wow 7.0. Definitely needs to be at 135 kt. Come on Igor you can make it :D
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Re:

#1438 Postby Battlebrick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:14/2345 UTC 18.9N 53.4W T7.0/7.0 IGOR -- Atlantic

CAT5???
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#1439 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:15 pm

Looks like he's NEVER going to cross 20N ( I know he is, just seems its taking forever for him to do it)
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Re: Re:

#1440 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:16 pm

Battlebrick wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:14/2345 UTC 18.9N 53.4W T7.0/7.0 IGOR -- Atlantic

CAT5???


That alone supports Cat 5, but other agencies may not yet. I personally don't have enough confidence to go up there yet.
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