Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[Aquawind]

Plenty of room for more.. I have seen 5 systems at one time. It's a big basin. I think this pouch watching has been very interesting..lol

[Vortex]

Where shall the 00z GFS end with the carribean storm...Yucatan or Florida?? rolling out now....

[ROCK]

one thing is for sure is that the GFS has not backed down on development. Run after run now...we are getting into day 7 which is not la la land by any means..close....but still showing a developing system heading through the islands...where it goes from there is a up in the air still IMO....

BTW- really low pressures all through out the carib. I would rule out some sort of carib brew while we are waiting on this guy.....

[Vortex]

The area to watch is at 8/38.....

[ROCK]

Where shall the 00z GFS end with the carribean storm...Yucatan or Florida?? rolling out now....

hey V you going to post it?

[Vortex]

well since where going back in forth btwn yucatan and florida and the 18z was the yucatan ill say florida... care to chime in rock?

[Vortex]

h+24 has a low at 9/20 this should lift north..its the energy to the west that has been the focal point of the models that gets into the carribean...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[Vortex]

10/42 at H+54 is the low to watch


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

at 54hr we got lows all over the ITCZ moving across...interesting that IGOR doesnt seem in a hurry to move out.....as long as it stays weak it should make it across...

[dwsqos2]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I'm thinking that this might be an excellent analog.

[Vortex]

looks like ivan turned in early

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

coming together..outside the islands...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

coming in at low lat....

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

when we talk about low pressures across the carib this map tells it all....look at all those lows lined up down there.....5 in a row then you get to the guy we are tracking.....

[Aquawind]

Yeow!!! Not funny.

[Vortex]

This is going to happen...The GFS has been on this run after run after run.....

[South Texas Storms]

rock do you think one of those 5 lows will develop into a tc?

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168l.gif

its here....crossing over the islands...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168l.gif

[ROCK]

rock do you think one of those 5 lows will develop into a tc?

no you need a trigger and we dont have that looking at this guidance...however pressures are low, ssts are high and if the upper air aloft is right..this guy moving in could really get going....

[Vortex]

Really beginning to intensify wsw of jamaica....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif