Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

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Aquawind
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#161 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:34 pm

Plenty of room for more.. I have seen 5 systems at one time. It's a big basin. I think this pouch watching has been very interesting..lol
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#162 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:31 pm

Where shall the 00z GFS end with the carribean storm...Yucatan or Florida?? rolling out now....
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#163 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:37 pm

one thing is for sure is that the GFS has not backed down on development. Run after run now...we are getting into day 7 which is not la la land by any means..close....but still showing a developing system heading through the islands...where it goes from there is a up in the air still IMO....

BTW- really low pressures all through out the carib. I would rule out some sort of carib brew while we are waiting on this guy.....
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#164 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:38 pm

The area to watch is at 8/38.....
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#165 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:38 pm

Vortex wrote:Where shall the 00z GFS end with the carribean storm...Yucatan or Florida?? rolling out now....



hey V you going to post it?
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#166 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:45 pm

well since where going back in forth btwn yucatan and florida and the 18z was the yucatan ill say florida... :lol: care to chime in rock?
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#167 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:48 pm

h+24 has a low at 9/20 this should lift north..its the energy to the west that has been the focal point of the models that gets into the carribean...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
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#168 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:05 pm

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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#169 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:06 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

at 54hr we got lows all over the ITCZ moving across...interesting that IGOR doesnt seem in a hurry to move out.....as long as it stays weak it should make it across...
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#170 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:08 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I'm thinking that this might be an excellent analog.
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#171 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:11 pm

looks like ivan turned in early :lol:
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#172 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:19 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

coming together..outside the islands...
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#173 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:25 pm

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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#174 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:30 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

when we talk about low pressures across the carib this map tells it all....look at all those lows lined up down there.....5 in a row then you get to the guy we are tracking.....
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#175 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:32 pm

:uarrow: Yeow!!! Not funny.
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#176 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:33 pm

This is going to happen...The GFS has been on this run after run after run.....
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#177 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:35 pm

rock do you think one of those 5 lows will develop into a tc?
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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#178 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:36 pm

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Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

#179 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:38 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:rock do you think one of those 5 lows will develop into a tc?



no you need a trigger and we dont have that looking at this guidance...however pressures are low, ssts are high and if the upper air aloft is right..this guy moving in could really get going....
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#180 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:39 pm

Really beginning to intensify wsw of jamaica....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
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