Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me on that 500mb EURO EM run that there is a good bit of ridging over all of eastern MX so I would expect a stall in the western Carib and an eventual NW motion around the SW periphery of the SE CONUS ridge. Much will depend on how deep the system gets in the western Carib, a deeper system the more northward. If a trough advances into the picture from the NW there is no way this doesn't get turned northward or/and eastward IMO!

Agree with Dean here except for two caveats:
1. GFS has done a good job depicting the origins of the system...(I can't believe I said that ) but the Euro does a better job depicting the evolution of the system IMO
2. Timing seems to be an issue with the GFS with the last run at 300 plus hours whereas the Euro depicts a broad area of low pressure in 240.
So we'll just have to wait and see. This ridge over the northern gulf isn't breaking down anytime soon.

Both however show a trough in the central US with the EURO above having it draped from the Great Lakes to the plains, you can see the EURO Ensemble is depicting a low developing along the front in the southern plains. This would eventually sweep eastward heading into Oct. and the ridge depicted centered over the south would likely break down. I cannot see a TC in the western Carib. at that time not being lifted northward as the ridge erodes. Like I said, the deeper the system the more likely it advances northward into the Gulf as the ridge breaks down.

[lonelymike]

Could be Dean Could Be. At this point of the year Texas or West coast of Florida are as likely to see this system as the NGOM. Just my two cents.

[stormhunter7]

Interesting report for http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/predict/htmlwrap?file_url=/predict/report/pouch/20100917/report.pouch.201009171450.synopsis.html PGI46L

Date (UTC): 2010/09/17 14:50
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/17 14:57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 11N 38W
Notes:

The story is similar for the models. A vorticity/OW max is
initially located near 11N, 38W. Models hint that it initially
moves eastward, perhaps being pulled that direction by some help
from PGI45L. Then, another OW max develops farther west from a
circulation that seems to come out of the north. For the pouch
tracking for yesterday and again today, I then jump to that new
western OW max, which then develops a pouch and moves into our
area of operations. Perhaps in retrospect, I should have
started a new pouch number. So be aware, that going from east
to west at around day 2-3, it is possible to see PGI45L, the
initial eastern PGI46L, and then the eventual western PGI46L
that moves westward.


Other potential systems:
GFS depicts a tiny pouch over West Africa that dissipates after
just one day. Meanwhile, ECMWF keeps it as a slow, weak pouch
for longer, and then intensifies it just as it leaves the
African coast. The interesting thing about ECMWF is that it
doesn't seem to have the following AEW. While GFS dissipates
the western one and then moves a stronger eastern (~13E now)
pouch into the area and out over the Atlantic, ECMWF simply
slowly develops this initally small, weak, western pouch with no
hint of, what I thought should be(!), the stronger eastern pouch
currently around 13E. (See "Other Possible Systems".)

The models have been indicating development in the west
Caribbean. I determined a phase speed for GFS based upon what
appeared to be a westward-moving wave in the Hovmoller, but I'm
not sure if that's accurate. I used Cp=0 for UKMET, and tracked
a pouch moving northward from Panama. (GFS is similar, just not
tracked.) ECMWF is slow to develop a pouch near Panama, and
then it stays well to the south and does not move northward like
the other models. (See "Other Possible Systems".)

[Dean4Storms]

Could be Dean Could Be. At this point of the year Texas or West coast of Florida are as likely to see this system as the NGOM. Just my two cents.

Not out of the question I agree and I'd lay heavier toward the west coast of Florida than TX. But timing and the depth of the trough will be key here.

[ROCK]

All the globals now are indicating lowering pressures across the western carribean over the next 7-10 days...Any energy coming in from the east may serve to act as the spark to ignite genesis. Or we may get something organized from 46 and just take advantage of favorable environmental conditions. 18 Z rolls in 30...Looking forward to the 00z Globals overnight...

I must say Vortex....this GFS hugging of late has really got me excited...though Its probably the 3rd model I look at with the EURO then CMC.....been fun watching all these runs come in....

[lonelymike]

Surprised Ivan isn't here....oh wait it is Friday so he's probably off studying hard at the library

[djmikey]

Anyone have a link to the latest gfs run?

Thanks in advance.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone have a link to the latest gfs run?

Thanks in advance.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/18zgfs.html

[ROCK]

Surprised Ivan isn't here....oh wait it is Friday so he's probably off studying hard at the library

nah hes doing his vodka cranberry thing DT.......

[lonelymike]

Surprised Ivan isn't here....oh wait it is Friday so he's probably off studying hard at the library

nah hes doing his vodka cranberry thing DT.......

Well you need a little refreshment when you're studying scantily clad fema.....er I mean chemistry...yeah that's it

[latitude_20]

So Ivan is a Cape Cod kinda guy - interesting, and off topic, so I apologize - just couldn't resist!

[srainhoutx]

Back on topic folks...

[latitude_20]

Interested in thoughts on a Dean replay. Dean actually chased me out of the Yucatan that year, interested in knowing what your thoughts are at this point.

[Vortex]

00z GFS 30 min til roll time...

[Ivanhater]

I see the 18z is back to Tampa..glad we are nailing it down

Also, I'm starting to think this is going to be a slooooow brew system in the NW Caribbean..almost like Wilma in terms if development, not necessarily track.

[South Texas Storms]

im very interested in what the 00z models will show. and of course im ready for some more entertainment on the landfall on the gfs if it develops it on this run.

[srainhoutx]

I agree Michael. The signals are becoming rather clear that the Western Basin is the main area to watch IMO. We watch these vortex traverse every season. Lower pressures, favorable upper air pattern in a Mod La Nina...

[Vortex]

Ivan thats my thinking now as well...It seems a good 7-10 days out before any possible genesis. The consensus is growing that we will get some development over the western carribean over the next 2 weeks..I think from this point on the other globals will also indicate more organized/stronger genesis..It's getting to that time of year.

[cycloneye]

In other words, a new thread for the Western Caribbean may be in order to continue posting the model runs. I am starting to think any development in the Western Caribbean may be triggered by energy from Southamerica instead from PGI46L, unless the models start to see PGI46L for development as GFS had until two days ago.

[Vortex]

I was thinking the same thing luis..Sooner than later may need a new thread "Possible development SW carribean late next week" I think if we continue to build a consensus after the 00z/12Z might be a good idea if 46 looks detached from this potential..