lonelymike wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Looks to me on that 500mb EURO EM run that there is a good bit of ridging over all of eastern MX so I would expect a stall in the western Carib and an eventual NW motion around the SW periphery of the SE CONUS ridge. Much will depend on how deep the system gets in the western Carib, a deeper system the more northward. If a trough advances into the picture from the NW there is no way this doesn't get turned northward or/and eastward IMO!
Agree with Dean here except for two caveats:
1. GFS has done a good job depicting the origins of the system...(I can't believe I said that) but the Euro does a better job depicting the evolution of the system IMO
2. Timing seems to be an issue with the GFS with the last run at 300 plus hours whereas the Euro depicts a broad area of low pressure in 240.
So we'll just have to wait and see. This ridge over the northern gulf isn't breaking down anytime soon.
Both however show a trough in the central US with the EURO above having it draped from the Great Lakes to the plains, you can see the EURO Ensemble is depicting a low developing along the front in the southern plains. This would eventually sweep eastward heading into Oct. and the ridge depicted centered over the south would likely break down. I cannot see a TC in the western Carib. at that time not being lifted northward as the ridge erodes. Like I said, the deeper the system the more likely it advances northward into the Gulf as the ridge breaks down.