Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#941 Postby blp » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:56 pm

I can't believe we are still a week away from this even consolidating.... It feels like we have been looking at this thing for a month. I am going to need another month off just to sleep after this.... :lol:
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#942 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:59 pm

Nogaps 12z

Image
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#943 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:00 pm

The ECM looks alot like hurricane Irene but a touch to the east, a northward/NNE motion....

Way too early to call thats for sure!
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Re:

#944 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:06 pm

KWT wrote:The ECM looks alot like hurricane Irene but a touch to the east, a northward/NNE motion....

Way too early to call thats for sure!



well I guess everyone is talking in here about the two systems that come together in the central and western carrib. anyway
12z EURO no longer turns it west and now NE motion like the nogaps and the old GFS run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#945 Postby ospreygrad » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:09 pm

SFLcane wrote:Nogaps 12z

Image


That is an interesting run from the NOGAPS. Shows a very deep trough over the Eastern CONUS with a strong nor'easter off the DELMARVA and a very strong tropical cyclone heading N/N-NE out of the NW Caribbean Sea.

We will continue to see some very interesting model runs during these next several days.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#946 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:24 pm

Could this system should up the coast or would it just go out to sea after passing Florida and the Bahamas. A deep slow moving trough and a strong high to the east could funnel the system northward, however, if a high pressure rebuilds to the north, like the gfs showed, then the system would only get so far north and then possibly look back to the southwest under the building high.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#947 Postby chrisjslucia » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:27 pm

Vortex wrote:46 has a very deep and moisture ladden southerly flow noted on the vis this afternoon...46 continues westward and it looks like the weather gets very active tonight/tuesday across barbados/windwards...Fairly low pressures across the region as well but likely nothing organizing until its gets further west. Still, I think the Windwards will deal with gusts to 35-40mph with localized flooding....Awaiting latter guidance to see how 46 plays into a developing cyclone across the western carribean late week/weekend...


Well St Lucia and no doubt St Vincent and Martinique at the least are getting the rain from this - burst of torrential rain for an hour and then continuous drizzle but very little wind. Looking at the sat images, more rain and no doubt some localised flooding to come but hopefully the wind gusts will not materialise. If I want to remember how lucky we are here, I just check the photos from Bermuda...
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#948 Postby djmikey » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:31 pm

Question:
I'm hearing a lot about this system heading towards Florida because of the soon expected trough. Does that mean that TX/LA are in the clear? Models seems consistent with a N/NE motion once or if it get to the GOM. Just curious.
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#949 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:38 pm

18Z NAM running and it appears fairly agressive with 46 at H60
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Re:

#950 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:43 pm

djmikey wrote:Question:
I'm hearing a lot about this system heading towards Florida because of the soon expected trough. Does that mean that TX/LA are in the clear? Models seems consistent with a N/NE motion once or if it get to the GOM. Just curious.


no
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#951 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:44 pm

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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#952 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:44 pm

12z Euro Ensembles disagree with the operational run.

Image
Image
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#953 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:45 pm

:uarrow: id hedge on the ensembles at this point
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#954 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:45 pm

I have my doubts that we will get a deep digging trough to turn this thing east of the U.S. This is late September, not mid-October, and the ridge over the southeast has been very persistent this summer. I do think the storm will eventually have an eastward vector in its motion, but I see a path through Cuba east of Florida as unlikely.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#955 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:48 pm

Updated...ensembles do agree with the operational :D
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#956 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:52 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Updated...ensembles do agree with the operational :D


Aren't the ensembles a good deal to the west of the operational? Or do you mean agree in the sense that they both form a significant cyclone over the NW Caribbean?

Edit: OK, I see it. The new Ensembles are still west of the operational, but not by as much. 12Z ensemble mean shows what looks like a path across the tip of Cuba toward SE Florida.
Last edited by BigA on Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#957 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:00 pm

If the 18Z NAM even remotely verified we would probably be dealing with a powerful storm in the NW carribean...Upper air pattern looks very favorable...
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#958 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:01 pm

BigA wrote:I have my doubts that we will get a deep digging trough to turn this thing east of the U.S. This is late September, not mid-October, and the ridge over the southeast has been very persistent this summer. I do think the storm will eventually have an eastward vector in its motion, but I see a path through Cuba east of Florida as unlikely.


From the position that this thing will form, I definitely think it would be very difficult for the system to just bypass parts of the U.S., particularly Florida, perhaps if it developed further east into the eastern Caribbean, then it would be plausible but the system develops far west enough where it would really have to go due north with an easterly component to fully miss us and I think that's unlikely although considering how lucky the U.S. has been, it just might miss us once again. I believe that Florida and perhaps the rest of the SE coast may be under the gun.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#959 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:02 pm

Convoluted upper air pattern according to HPC. Low confidence on the east coast trough - probably why we're seeing large swings in the guidance (i.e. GFS 12z vs 00z) and Euro (00z vs 12z).

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010

CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.
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#960 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:22 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 15 min....
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