ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

So the 200 mb high did form over Hispaniola as forecast by the GFS yesterday. Centered roughly 800 km NW of 95L.



This feature is forecast to move west. In the meantime, won't this make it difficult for an anti-cyclone to form directly over 95L for at least the next few days?
This seems to be indicated by the GFS anyway until 95L reaches the NW Caribbean and then we see some excellent upper level divergence and rapid development.

[caneseddy]

HPC thoughts this morning:

"DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED."

It seems that HPC is also agreeing on a Florida threat but not as far west as the Canadianc (which hit Pensacola...very interesting

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking good

[MWatkins]

Avila wrote the TWO with Berg...I don't understand why some choose to slam the NHC and their products. Are there not enough folksy anticdotes in the discussions? Just absolutely bizarre.

I mean, seriously...what's the agenda?

This idea that there is some secret conspiracy out there in the hurricane world tells me that some people have WAY TOO MUCH time on their hands.

Anyway, back to the system...

Regardless of what happens with the center, there is little doubt that whatever emerges from the coast (if it comes in) will have a very favorable upper pattern. Even with as much time as the 6Z GFS spends inland, it quickly redevelops once it comes north.

That's going to the the problem...it almost doesn't matter to the US (although, it makes a HUGE difference to CA) if this develops significantly or not before the stall...it will be a problem once it comes off the coast.

It will just be a bigger problem if it doesn't get hung up over land for 3 days.

MW

[Vortex]

Looking much better...loks to be a large system

[HURAKAN]

Last 72 hours

[Comanche]

Anyone care to tackle this?



Regardless of heat content, this is at May levels, way below climo and from what I gather, is an impeding factor for this.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 4/abstract

Excerpt- "it would appear difficult for cyclones or anticyclones of any reasonable size to develop significantly in low latitudes, with the exception of cyclones in a vertically unstable atmosphere."

[Frank2]

MWatkins,

My comments were an aside based on my own first-hand experiences with Lixion many years ago, and were meant as poking fun at his always looking for a west wind (a/k/a looking for an LLC) - kind of like a surfer looking for the perfect wave (lol), so, no agenda here...

Frank

[Vortex]

NHC does a remarkable job for an inexact science...

[Portastorm]

NHC does a remarkable job for an inexact science...

Yes they do ... now let's all get back on topic please!

[HURAKAN]

Looking great in the loops

[Frank2]

Si - just remember that we are still in September and the zonal flow in the Caribbean still exists...

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

It should start pulling up soon....

[Bocadude85]

I was looking back at past hurricanes that have hit Florida from the south and came across Hurricane Isbell in 1964.. track looks similar to what the models are showing.

http://yfrog.com/n0trackng

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Anyone care to tackle this?



Regardless of heat content, this is at May levels, way below climo and from what I gather, is an impeding factor for this.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 4/abstract

Excerpt- "it would appear difficult for cyclones or anticyclones of any reasonable size to develop significantly in low latitudes, with the exception of cyclones in a vertically unstable atmosphere."

Comanche, I was asking about this yesterday, got an identical response.

I am not in any form or fashion an expert on this, or even a buff, but it would seem to me that if you cant get a parcel of air to sufficiently rise, everything else is for not.

I would very much appreciate hearing from those who understand these things far better than I. But I believe there's a reason that 95L continues to look like it does, i.e., not materializing, despite continued suggestions that it's "looking good".

Appreciate you bringing this up as well.

[SFLcane]

A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.
B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650

[MGC]

The low the NHC mentioned must be tiny....I still see no cyclonic turning on the satellite loop. We will see when recon gets down there....still not impressed.....MGC

[kohlejgreene]

Loop

is that circulation located under hatie

[Comanche]

http://www.bama.ua.edu/~jcsenkbeil/gy4570/formation.pdf

opening sentence says it all, yet still crickets here.