ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[cycloneye]

A note to the peeps=Long range runs for another system not related to 95L, you can post those on the Long Range runs thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2072632#p2072632

[Dean4Storms]

Not buying that run of the GFS, I just can't see the trough digging that deep to turn it that far to the NE before the ridge builds back. That is also the furthest south it has depicted that cut off low.

[Blown Away]

Landfall South Florida (only 7 days from now):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

The 12z and 18z have almost the same Miami landfall/brush, the 18z does almost 5 days earlier than the 12z. It will be interesting to see if the 00z models start latching on to a sooner turn to the NE or continue to bury 95L in the Gulf of Honduras for almost 10 days.

[hurricaneCW]

This gfs run is a lot more tolerable, it doesn't have a second low, it's much faster with the storm, and the track is pretty straightforward. Could be an east coast runner that goes from Florida all the way to the mid-atlantic/northeast. Big precipitation producer and drought buster of a storm.

The next thing will be how strong does it get. The gfs indicates that we could be seeing at least a Cat 1 hurricane given the actual pressures are always a lot lower than shown on a model map. It does sit in the Western Caribbean for a couple of days so it could be a lot stronger than depicted, but then a landfall with Cuba will probably keep its strength down. I don't see anything higher than a Category 1 (90 mph) as of right now because of land interaction, but things could change.

[pricetag56]

Look the moral of the models is that the US's luck has run out this year and Florida is the first to be in danger. so all the people who thought the season was over in florida need to prepare for their livilihoods because we dont know yet how strong the storm or storms will be.

[Dean4Storms]

Landfall South Florida (only 7 days from now):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

The 12z and 18z have almost the same Miami landfall/brush, the 18z does almost 5 days earlier than the 12z. It will be interesting to see if the 00z models start latching on to a sooner turn to the NE or continue to bury 95L in the Gulf of Honduras for almost 10 days.

Sure enough, but for it to occur it moves the Low from Belize almost ENE to south of central Cuba before turning it northward toward SE FL. I just don't buy the trough digging that far down into the western Carib. to send this ENE this time of year. The GFS is the eastern outlier much like it has eroded ridges too much in the recurves this year with trough depicted much deeper than what they ended up being. I can see enough of a trough to lift this low toward the SE Gulf and western FL, but not turning it ENE in the Carib., too much trough IMO.

[plasticup]

I'd say the moral of the models is that they need more to initialize on. The suite is highly divergent to the point that it is not even meaningful.

Wake me in two days.

[Comanche]

Not buying that run of the GFS, I just can't see the trough digging that deep to turn it that far to the NE before the ridge builds back. That is also the furthest south it has depicted that cut off low.

"that run" of the GFS? I think it fairly safe to say the model consistancy for a strike on the Florida pen. is there, and has been there for many many runs of both GFS AND the Euro. Exact timing and exactly what have been a little more up in the air, but run after run after run after run.................Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean.......NEW ORLEANS!!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS Ensemble completed up to the 288hr.....loop


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _Loop.html

[BigB0882]

I know it is 18z and only one run of the ensembles but I have been waiting on the Westward trend to begin. Let's see if this will be the beginning of a trend or just a one off. That latest GFS made me laugh since the cut off low was even further south than in previous runs. I am just not buying into that at this point. If it does happen, then I want cool and dry weather for the football game!

Can anyone guess on the strength for that 18z GFS ensemble run? It appears to avoid land completely until NO. Unlikely but if it does happen then I wonder what the intensity might be.

[SouthFLTropics]

This gfs run is a lot more tolerable, it doesn't have a second low, it's much faster with the storm, and the track is pretty straightforward. Could be an east coast runner that goes from Florida all the way to the mid-atlantic/northeast. Big precipitation producer and drought buster of a storm.

The next thing will be how strong does it get. The gfs indicates that we could be seeing at least a Cat 1 hurricane given the actual pressures are always a lot lower than shown on a model map. It does sit in the Western Caribbean for a couple of days so it could be a lot stronger than depicted, but then a landfall with Cuba will probably keep its strength down. I don't see anything higher than a Category 1 (90 mph) as of right now because of land interaction, but things could change.

I agree that this run of the GFS looks more realistic.

As far as landfall in Cuba and the potential weakening affect that it may have I think that it will all depend on the forward speed of the storm. It could traverse Cuba in short order and pop out in the Florida straights with some very warm water to work with from the Gulf Stream.

Track at this time looks pretty straightforward meaning that somewhere in Florida is probably going to have to deal with this system. With that being said that could mean anywhere from Pensacola or the Keys (or both).

Intensity is going to be difficult to forecast right now, especially since it really hasn't gotten going yet and we also don't know how much land interaction it is going to have down in Central America.

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Not sure if this is updated with the ensemble mean but a large shift west.

[KWT]

Still too early to call, I bet the models still don't have a good grip on the set-up aloft for a few days, the fact the 18z GFS and 12z ECM agree is interesting but I'm not convinced they both have a good idea of what will evolve...though I've already said I personally think the Florida and close call to the Bahamas/East coast is my own call.

We will see, bet whilst the 00z models will broadly be similar they may well change in terms of strength and forward speed yet quite alot.

[KWT]

"that run" of the GFS? I think it fairly safe to say the model consistancy for a strike on the Florida pen. is there, and has been there for many many runs of both GFS AND the Euro. Exact timing and exactly what have been a little more up in the air, but run after run after run after run.................Florida.

Yeah and there is some agreement about that being the case but to be fair it is still somewhat too early to feel confident about that sort of solution occuring...

I wonder what the 00z suite will show!!

[Normandy]

While there is still uncertainty regarding future Matthew one can't help but notice the potential danger involved with this setup from many perspectives. A cyclone sitting around the Gulf of Honduras, especially one as large as this one is modeled right now, will produce heavy rain and lots of problems for Honduras. If it misses Honduras it traverses the highest OHC (and a large area of it mind you) for 2-3 days. This could be a big problem down the line for somebody, because it has the opportunity to become quite intense before exiting the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

12Z Canadian ensemble very near SW Florida at H156





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PUS156.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Canadian Ensemble at H144. Just North of western Cuba





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PUS144.gif

[Blown Away]

Still too early to call, I bet the models still don't have a good grip on the set-up aloft for a few days, the fact the 18z GFS and 12z ECM agree is interesting but I'm not convinced they both have a good idea of what will evolve...though I've already said I personally think the Florida and close call to the Bahamas/East coast is my own call.

We will see, bet whilst the 00z models will broadly be similar they may well change in terms of strength and forward speed yet quite alot.

I think we have a good idea where the NHC would have 95L moving by looking at the HPC maps and the TCVN model, both have 95L in the Yucatan Channel in about 7 days. I'm getting pretty confident in a Yucatan Channel type track in about 7 days, it's the intensity that is a big unknown, it could be no more than a big rain event.

[BigB0882]

12Z Canadian ensemble very near SW Florida at H156





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PUS156.gif

But still a ways out in the Gulf. If this is moving more N than NE then it is easily headed for the big bend area of FL or even the panhandle when wobbles are taken into account.