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gatorcane wrote:Landfall South Florida (only 7 days from now):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif
Blown Away wrote:gatorcane wrote:Landfall South Florida (only 7 days from now):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif
The 12z and 18z have almost the same Miami landfall/brush, the 18z does almost 5 days earlier than the 12z. It will be interesting to see if the 00z models start latching on to a sooner turn to the NE or continue to bury 95L in the Gulf of Honduras for almost 10 days.
Dean4Storms wrote:Not buying that run of the GFS, I just can't see the trough digging that deep to turn it that far to the NE before the ridge builds back. That is also the furthest south it has depicted that cut off low.
hurricaneCW wrote:This gfs run is a lot more tolerable, it doesn't have a second low, it's much faster with the storm, and the track is pretty straightforward. Could be an east coast runner that goes from Florida all the way to the mid-atlantic/northeast. Big precipitation producer and drought buster of a storm.
The next thing will be how strong does it get. The gfs indicates that we could be seeing at least a Cat 1 hurricane given the actual pressures are always a lot lower than shown on a model map. It does sit in the Western Caribbean for a couple of days so it could be a lot stronger than depicted, but then a landfall with Cuba will probably keep its strength down. I don't see anything higher than a Category 1 (90 mph) as of right now because of land interaction, but things could change.
Comanche wrote:
"that run" of the GFS? I think it fairly safe to say the model consistancy for a strike on the Florida pen. is there, and has been there for many many runs of both GFS AND the Euro. Exact timing and exactly what have been a little more up in the air, but run after run after run after run.................Florida.
KWT wrote:Still too early to call, I bet the models still don't have a good grip on the set-up aloft for a few days, the fact the 18z GFS and 12z ECM agree is interesting but I'm not convinced they both have a good idea of what will evolve...though I've already said I personally think the Florida and close call to the Bahamas/East coast is my own call.
We will see, bet whilst the 00z models will broadly be similar they may well change in terms of strength and forward speed yet quite alot.
Vortex wrote:12Z Canadian ensemble very near SW Florida at H156
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PUS156.gif
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