ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1061 Postby artist » Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:59 pm

redfish1 wrote:it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them :roll:


you know what redfish, when our emergency managers have been notified of the possibility as well as our local forecast discussions mention the possibility, well, we just tend to discuss that possibility here. It has nothing to do with -removed-. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherSnoop
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 702
Age: 62
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:06 pm
Location: Tampa, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1062 Postby weatherSnoop » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:01 pm

redfish1 wrote:it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them :roll:


Not this girl...I just want a little tropical moisture. Nothing More

Lee
0 likes   

Saints
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:16 pm

Re: Re:

#1063 Postby Saints » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:01 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
Saints wrote:
southerngale wrote:Update on some of the latest "consensus" Image



Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

I havent heard anyone scream the sky is falling...but we do need to be concerned to a point. I think it should be noted that it is out there and maybe just check on your supply of batteries at this point. Not many models are saying this dies in CA, some just loop it around in odd fashions.


Oh, come on. You can't honestly believe the first part of your post about a number of posters; "screaming the sky is falling", posting over and over about the pending, or perceived doom and gloom, with this system, do you?

But the remainder of your post is well stated and very good to remind folks of the importance of simply staying alert, but not to overreact with such doom and gloom scenarios, with such a minimal system. There certainly will be times down the road to get nervous and alarmed, but it's best to save all of your energy for those real events, not for a minimal tropical storm. That's just me though.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#1064 Postby artist » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:02 pm

it seems to me someone is trolling to cause havoc. Maybe we just need to ignore them, myself included.
0 likes   

Florida1118

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1065 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:04 pm

artist wrote:
redfish1 wrote:it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them :roll:


you know what redfish, when our emergency managers have been notified of the possibility as well as our local forecast discussions mention the possibility, well, we just tend to discuss that possibility here. It has nothing to do with -removed-. :wink:

Were going to start getting burned by the mods if we keep getting off topic...take it to the Discussion... :D I hope the 00z models come into better agreement...
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1066 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:04 pm

18Z MM5 turns sharper to the NE...I've been following it this year closely and has done well this year.


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1067 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:04 pm

The tone better change in here fast unless you want to take a vacation from S2K.

Get back on topic now!
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1068 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:04 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1069 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:05 pm

18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1070 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:07 pm

0 likes   

Florida1118

Re:

#1071 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:07 pm

Vortex wrote:18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#1072 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:19 pm

HWRF seems to be taking a turn to the NW at the end? I can't imagine it will not be at least a TS since it avoids land so that makes me question the track as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

Re: Re:

#1073 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:27 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
Vortex wrote:18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...



Dang none of those url pages load for me..says I have a connection problem..not.
0 likes   

User avatar
baygirl_1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 825
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:06 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1074 Postby baygirl_1 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:33 pm

Question: Could the loop/turn back east that is showing up on some of the models be an indication of weak steering currents or really slow forward speed?
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: Re:

#1075 Postby artist » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:42 pm

Aquawind wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:
Vortex wrote:18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...



Dang none of those url pages load for me..says I have a connection problem..not.

here you go for this link-
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#1076 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:47 pm

Weird I even added it as a trusted site and nuttin..
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1077 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:35 pm

and here we go folks...00z GFS is rolling....
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1078 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:38 pm

H6...good starting point..also watch the area near the NW coast of South America as energy may shhot off the coast leading to the development of a 2nd cyclone...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
RachelAnna
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:38 pm
Location: Cypress, Texas

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1079 Postby RachelAnna » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:39 pm

Last I looked Matthew was projected to take a hard right toward the EGOM. Was surprised to see the changes in the "cone" tonight. Any opinions on what areas are most at risk down the line? Consensus still thinking Florida? This looks as though it could go anywhere from Texas to the Panhandle right now. :?:
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1080 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:39 pm

H12 low also noted now near SA coast...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal012.gif
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests