ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[artist]

it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them

you know what redfish, when our emergency managers have been notified of the possibility as well as our local forecast discussions mention the possibility, well, we just tend to discuss that possibility here. It has nothing to do with -removed-.

[weatherSnoop]

it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them

Not this girl...I just want a little tropical moisture. Nothing More

Lee

[Saints]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

I havent heard anyone scream the sky is falling...but we do need to be concerned to a point. I think it should be noted that it is out there and maybe just check on your supply of batteries at this point. Not many models are saying this dies in CA, some just loop it around in odd fashions.

Oh, come on. You can't honestly believe the first part of your post about a number of posters; "screaming the sky is falling", posting over and over about the pending, or perceived doom and gloom, with this system, do you?

But the remainder of your post is well stated and very good to remind folks of the importance of simply staying alert, but not to overreact with such doom and gloom scenarios, with such a minimal system. There certainly will be times down the road to get nervous and alarmed, but it's best to save all of your energy for those real events, not for a minimal tropical storm. That's just me though.

[artist]

it seems to me someone is trolling to cause havoc. Maybe we just need to ignore them, myself included.

[Florida1118]

it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them

you know what redfish, when our emergency managers have been notified of the possibility as well as our local forecast discussions mention the possibility, well, we just tend to discuss that possibility here. It has nothing to do with -removed-.

Were going to start getting burned by the mods if we keep getting off topic...take it to the Discussion... I hope the 00z models come into better agreement...

[Vortex]

18Z MM5 turns sharper to the NE...I've been following it this year closely and has done well this year.


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Ivanhater]

The tone better change in here fast unless you want to take a vacation from S2K.

Get back on topic now!

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF similar just too weak


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps completes the loop




http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Florida1118]

18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...

[BigB0882]

HWRF seems to be taking a turn to the NW at the end? I can't imagine it will not be at least a TS since it avoids land so that makes me question the track as well.

[Aquawind]

18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...

Dang none of those url pages load for me..says I have a connection problem..not.

[baygirl_1]

Question: Could the loop/turn back east that is showing up on some of the models be an indication of weak steering currents or really slow forward speed?

[artist]

18Z GFDL loops back around to the east...notice a trend with these models



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

This constant looping is going to flood the heck out of CA...

Dang none of those url pages load for me..says I have a connection problem..not.

here you go for this link-

[Aquawind]

Weird I even added it as a trusted site and nuttin..

[Vortex]

and here we go folks...00z GFS is rolling....

[Vortex]

H6...good starting point..also watch the area near the NW coast of South America as energy may shhot off the coast leading to the development of a 2nd cyclone...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

[RachelAnna]

Last I looked Matthew was projected to take a hard right toward the EGOM. Was surprised to see the changes in the "cone" tonight. Any opinions on what areas are most at risk down the line? Consensus still thinking Florida? This looks as though it could go anywhere from Texas to the Panhandle right now.

[Vortex]

H12 low also noted now near SA coast...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal012.gif