ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[otowntiger]

So much uncertainties with Matthew.

Scenarios:
1.) Makes landfall on Central America and dies off.
2.) Heads for Florida.
3.) Goes to the Gulf of Mexico.
4.) Lingers over the Caribbean and becomes a monsterous hurricane.

None are enticing.

Well #1 is certainly much less troublesome, that is if it doesn't get too strong before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

update

[DanKellFla]

I give up. In 24 hours the models should start to make sense. At this point, we are guessing about guesses.

[Aric Dunn]

we could see a hurricane tomorrow sometime.. I said earlier that we are very likely to see rapid intensification given the synoptics and heat content...

[artist]

the 11 pm discussion should be interesting...

[cycloneye]

we could see a hurricane tomorrow sometime.. I said earlier that we are very likely to see rapid intensification given the synoptics and heat content...

But Aric, will it gain latitude before Nicaragua,or is inevitable the landfall there?

[Vortex]

CDO in the process of forming as we speak...very deep convection is firing -80C over the center....

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is indeed the question... Will it lift north enough?

[psyclone]

i wonder if the northeast hook will disappear on the 11pm track. it will be interesting to see what they do and how they handle intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aquawind]

CDO in the process of forming as we speak...very deep convection is firing -80C over the center....

Yes it looks like a solid core with deep convection..

[Vortex]

it should be just about on the NE part of honduras at this time tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

we could see a hurricane tomorrow sometime.. I said earlier that we are very likely to see rapid intensification given the synoptics and heat content...

But Aric, will it gain latitude before Nicaragua,or is inevitable the landfall there?

It is likely to interact with Nicaragua regardless, I was referring to the over night and tomorrow before it landfall for RI. the NE coast of Nicaragua is quite flat and it will depend on how far inland the circulation gets.

[gatorcane]

looks like it may crash and burn in Central America (Nicaragua)..............?

Could just bury itself in Central America and end up not being a threat to the CONUS afterall.....

[Vortex]

Looking at the current and forecasted stering flow matt should continue at about the same speed(15-17mph) through friday evening...Then slow to 10-12mph saturday and maybe a near stall saturday night/sunday....

[hurricaneCW]

looks like it may crash and burn in Central America (Nicaragua)..............?

Could just bury itself in Central America and end up not being a threat to the CONUS afterall.....

Well you could be right, this one could just bury itself inland, the next one will probably be a completely different story.

[Aric Dunn]

This will help some see the evolution of the steering and the ridge. if you notice it has been sliding east the last few days the western edge is being weakened by the approaching trough. the ridge should continue to shift slowly east allowing matthew to turn wnw soon then slow down.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 2java.html

[otowntiger]

It seems to me that there are 3 postive things happening here (as I see them and I'm no expert so take with a grain of salt):
1. The storm is moving very quickly. It may not give itself enough time to really strengthen. Generally (but not always) storms that move very fast are less likely to rapidly intensify because it enhances the wind shear. but regardless it could make landfall before it has a chance to really deepen.
2. It doesn't seem to be gaining any lattitude. If it doesn't, then it will plow headlong into northern or even central Nicaraugua and get ripped to shreds.
3. It seems that a majority of the models have it diving deep into CA/Mex headed sw keeping it away from the GOM.

[Vortex]

Btw Nam on the 00z takes it west and leaves a very energetic sw carribean behind....as Ivan mentioned earlier this may actually become the threat to the US that has been hinted at by several models....

[Sanibel]

Despite the low track-look NHC trop points still call for a clip of Honduras and onto Belize as a hurricane. Watch out, that Gulf of Honduras can power storms once it emerges back over water. The structure is tightening to a tight little black IR bursting CDO.