Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

H72 Large and in charge...probablly Nicole at this point...excellent pattern aloft...Big time flood problems across the carribean im sure...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[sfwx]

I think it's safe to say that if Nicole forms. Somewhere in the Gulf will get landfall. I just hope it ain't me.

No worries, you aren't on the Gulf!!

Eric

[Vortex]

H78 deepening...once this starts to consolidate lookout...very impressive circulation




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[gatorcane]

H78 deepening...once this starts to consolidate lookout...very impressive circulation




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[SFLcane]

Huge well organized low at 84hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

Ya. That's what I thought with Wilma. No power for 15 days.

[Vortex]

NAM 00Z Loop..impressive..we end with a strengthening system....


Loop:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

No power means humidity in the house who the heck needs that crap.

[gatorcane]

Huge well organized low at 84hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif

Wow well certainly I am keeping a close eye when you see that. It is the nam but still.....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest.

[cycloneye]

Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest.

And not even a code yellow. But that will change soon.

[SFLcane]

[Vortex]

00Z GFS rolls in 30....

[Vortex]

Luis you may even get some weather from this...

[hurricaneCW]

It has a very Pacific like look to it on the Nam. A very large circulation with widespread low pressures, kind of like Igor had.

[Vortex]

BTW, where the NAM ended... the NHC has a low just N of the east coast of Honduras in 72 hours per TAFB charts. Point is..I think it looks like a realistic run...

[gatorcane]

Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest.

It will be soon with words like: "some slow development is possible as it remains nearly stationary." Probably code yellow later tonight or tomorrow.

[shah8]

The look of the NAM is pretty serious. This looks like a storm that will be killing many across the region before it even heads north.

[cyclogenesis]

September 25, 2010
this Saturday night
1002 PM CDT



Gang ~~ It's been 6 weeks since I've been on these boards. I'm including my hand-drawn illustration depicting 5 different models' & their 5 respective, different positions forecasted for 7 AM, CDT, Friday, October 1st. It's the same storm -- Just MUCH different positionings from 5 different models' estimates. I do this from time to time to score the models.


I scanned the image and then had to re-write over it, because it didn't pick-up 2 of the colors.


U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st








U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st


I do this to get ALL the models on ONE surface map, at an instantaneous snap-shot in time -- 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st & so's I can see the variations all on one mapping.


I've labelled the 6-Day Pressure forecasts, in millibars, for each of the 5 different models, with your C-Gem the lowest, (most developed), pressure of 992 mb; & your UKM, (the least developed), & the highest pressure of 1003 mb over the Central Gulf of Mexico. So there you see....anywhere's from a low-end tropical storm to a high-end tropical storm, coming from the pressure output in the models' grid domains.


....And finally, your JMA model, was estimated to be between the "E" & "U" above in the diagram.


So, what was the directional headings of them all??


Nogaps was North-Northwest out to 180 hours (that's 7 1/2 days).
UKM was straight North out to 144 hours, (this is 6 days).
ECMWF was an acceleration to the Northeast into the Western Atlantic, after the Florida Keys.
GFS was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.
C-Gem was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.


Now, what you get to do from here, is take a fresh, brand-new look at the 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite data tomorrow afternoon, and COMPARE back to this illustration, & see how your results have updated on Sunday, September 26th. What you'll do is, look at the 120 hour forecast positions from 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite & see how it's changed from my above-plotted points of the 144 hour forecast position points from the 9/25/2010, 12Z model suite. It'll be for the same time, if you do it right, Friday morning, 7 AM, 10-1-2010; you're just comparing what a difference 24 hours makes in the model suite, and take notice how it's all changed.


The one attribute that looks fairly certain: It looks to me like a LARGE storm, with a LARGE circulation, which looks to have a rather expansive wind-field, encompassing a goodly amount of aerial real estate over water & land.




-- cyclogenesis

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey thanks a lot for your idea and suggestions.

I have the 00Z 00 Hour GFS run coming out now...