Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)
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- sfwx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
HURRICANELONNY wrote:I think it's safe to say that if Nicole forms. Somewhere in the Gulf will get landfall. I just hope it ain't me.
No worries, you aren't on the Gulf!!

Eric
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H78 deepening...once this starts to consolidate lookout...very impressive circulation
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
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- gatorcane
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Re:
Vortex wrote:H78 deepening...once this starts to consolidate lookout...very impressive circulation
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

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- SFLcane
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Huge well organized low at 84hrs...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Ya. That's what I thought with Wilma. No power for 15 days.
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hurricanelonny
NAM 00Z Loop..impressive..we end with a strengthening system....
Loop:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Loop:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
No power means humidity in the house who the heck needs that crap.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
SFLcane wrote:Huge well organized low at 84hrs...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif
Wow well certainly I am keeping a close eye when you see that. It is the nam but still.....

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-
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest. 

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hurricanelonny
- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest.
And not even a code yellow. But that will change soon.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
It has a very Pacific like look to it on the Nam. A very large circulation with widespread low pressures, kind of like Igor had.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Do you all realize that we're talking about something that isn't even an invest.
It will be soon with words like: "some slow development is possible as it remains nearly stationary." Probably code yellow later tonight or tomorrow.
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- cyclogenesis
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
September 25, 2010
this Saturday night
1002 PM CDT
Gang ~~ It's been 6 weeks since I've been on these boards. I'm including my hand-drawn illustration depicting 5 different models' & their 5 respective, different positions forecasted for 7 AM, CDT, Friday, October 1st. It's the same storm -- Just MUCH different positionings from 5 different models' estimates. I do this from time to time to score the models.
I scanned the image and then had to re-write over it, because it didn't pick-up 2 of the colors.
U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st

U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
I do this to get ALL the models on ONE surface map, at an instantaneous snap-shot in time -- 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st & so's I can see the variations all on one mapping.
I've labelled the 6-Day Pressure forecasts, in millibars, for each of the 5 different models, with your C-Gem the lowest, (most developed), pressure of 992 mb; & your UKM, (the least developed), & the highest pressure of 1003 mb over the Central Gulf of Mexico. So there you see....anywhere's from a low-end tropical storm to a high-end tropical storm, coming from the pressure output in the models' grid domains.
....And finally, your JMA model, was estimated to be between the "E" & "U" above in the diagram.
So, what was the directional headings of them all??
Nogaps was North-Northwest out to 180 hours (that's 7 1/2 days).
UKM was straight North out to 144 hours, (this is 6 days).
ECMWF was an acceleration to the Northeast into the Western Atlantic, after the Florida Keys.
GFS was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.
C-Gem was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.
Now, what you get to do from here, is take a fresh, brand-new look at the 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite data tomorrow afternoon, and COMPARE back to this illustration, & see how your results have updated on Sunday, September 26th. What you'll do is, look at the 120 hour forecast positions from 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite & see how it's changed from my above-plotted points of the 144 hour forecast position points from the 9/25/2010, 12Z model suite. It'll be for the same time, if you do it right, Friday morning, 7 AM, 10-1-2010; you're just comparing what a difference 24 hours makes in the model suite, and take notice how it's all changed.
The one attribute that looks fairly certain: It looks to me like a LARGE storm, with a LARGE circulation, which looks to have a rather expansive wind-field, encompassing a goodly amount of aerial real estate over water & land.
-- cyclogenesis
this Saturday night
1002 PM CDT
Gang ~~ It's been 6 weeks since I've been on these boards. I'm including my hand-drawn illustration depicting 5 different models' & their 5 respective, different positions forecasted for 7 AM, CDT, Friday, October 1st. It's the same storm -- Just MUCH different positionings from 5 different models' estimates. I do this from time to time to score the models.
I scanned the image and then had to re-write over it, because it didn't pick-up 2 of the colors.
U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st

U = UKMET's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
E = ECMWF's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
G = GFS's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
N = NGP's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
C = C-Gem's 6-day position for 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st
I do this to get ALL the models on ONE surface map, at an instantaneous snap-shot in time -- 7 AM, Friday morning, October 1st & so's I can see the variations all on one mapping.
I've labelled the 6-Day Pressure forecasts, in millibars, for each of the 5 different models, with your C-Gem the lowest, (most developed), pressure of 992 mb; & your UKM, (the least developed), & the highest pressure of 1003 mb over the Central Gulf of Mexico. So there you see....anywhere's from a low-end tropical storm to a high-end tropical storm, coming from the pressure output in the models' grid domains.
....And finally, your JMA model, was estimated to be between the "E" & "U" above in the diagram.
So, what was the directional headings of them all??
Nogaps was North-Northwest out to 180 hours (that's 7 1/2 days).
UKM was straight North out to 144 hours, (this is 6 days).
ECMWF was an acceleration to the Northeast into the Western Atlantic, after the Florida Keys.
GFS was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.
C-Gem was North-Northeast out to 144 hours.
Now, what you get to do from here, is take a fresh, brand-new look at the 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite data tomorrow afternoon, and COMPARE back to this illustration, & see how your results have updated on Sunday, September 26th. What you'll do is, look at the 120 hour forecast positions from 9/26/2010, 12Z model suite & see how it's changed from my above-plotted points of the 144 hour forecast position points from the 9/25/2010, 12Z model suite. It'll be for the same time, if you do it right, Friday morning, 7 AM, 10-1-2010; you're just comparing what a difference 24 hours makes in the model suite, and take notice how it's all changed.
The one attribute that looks fairly certain: It looks to me like a LARGE storm, with a LARGE circulation, which looks to have a rather expansive wind-field, encompassing a goodly amount of aerial real estate over water & land.
-- cyclogenesis
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Hey thanks a lot for your idea and suggestions.
I have the 00Z 00 Hour GFS run coming out now...

I have the 00Z 00 Hour GFS run coming out now...

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