Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[SouthFloridawx]

Take it for what it is... but at 336 It's still just to the east of Florida. Highly unlikely though.

[dwsqos2]

Also, when I think of Michelle, I think of a powerful category 4 hurricane not a strung-out, semi-tropical, hilariously broad mess.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z Nogaps... 84 Hours...

[SouthFLTropics]

Take it for what it is... but at 336 It's still just to the east of Florida. Highly unlikely though.

Yeah, and another storm on deck just below Haiti...

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

96

[SouthFloridawx]

Run this loop and speed it up. You will see the evolution in the Nogaps run.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010092600&set=Tropical

[otowntiger]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting better

Yep. It's pretty remarkable how all these long range models keep stringing us along making us get worked up over something and when it finally comes to crunch time: nothing. This seems like it will be a non-event. I can't believe I've wasted so much time here following a mythical storm that never was and apparently never will be.

[otowntiger]

It appears people are leaning away from this becoming a hurricane?

Yep. As a cop on the street would say 'nothing to see here, move along folks!'

[SouthFLTropics]

If you look at the IR loop it appears you can already see the large, and I mean LARGE, circulation trying to take shape. Look for the center somewhere in the corner of the Bay of Honduras, right on the Honduran coastline. Look at all of the moisture that is rotating in to it from the EPAC. Talk about a massive circulation this will be.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

SFT

[gatorcane]

Broad large rotation around the gulf of Honduras starting to become noticeable. Convection also building there as well..........This has got to be a code yellow at least by the morning.....

[CourierPR]

It appears people are leaning away from this becoming a hurricane?

Yep. As a cop on the street would say 'nothing to see here, move along folks!'

Then we can expect to not see anymore posts from you?

[Florida1118]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting better

Yep. It's pretty remarkable how all these long range models keep stringing us along making us get worked up over something and when it finally comes to crunch time: nothing. This seems like it will be a non-event. I can't believe I've wasted so much time here following a mythical storm that never was and apparently never will be.

Wasted? Because models still think there will be a storm, and that still could be? I dont think thats a waste of time at all. A model run or 2 of a weaker system doesnt automatically mean Shows over!

[SouthFLTropics]

Broad rotation around the gulf of Honduras starting to become noticeable. Convection also building there as well..........This has got to be a code yellow at least by the morning.....

We must have been looking at the same thing at the same time...Look at my previous post a short time ago with the IR sat link. And when you say broad you aint kidding...That is a BROAD circulation...

SFT

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep. It's pretty remarkable how all these long range models keep stringing us along making us get worked up over something and when it finally comes to crunch time: nothing. This seems like it will be a non-event. I can't believe I've wasted so much time here following a mythical storm that never was and apparently never will be.

I don't think it will be a non-event, as it could bring lots of rain to the state that can cause some problems. But yes, I don't think it's going to make it to hurricane status. As they say, it takes ALOT more than just warm bath water to get a hurricane. The conditions down the road just don't look very good at all to get anything other than a tropical storm out of this.

I'd be more concerned about what may come behind it.....

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z CMC 00 Hour

[Florida1118]

Broad rotation around the gulf of Honduras starting to become noticeable. Convection also building there as well..........This has got to be a code yellow at least by the morning.....

We must have been looking at the same thing at the same time...Look at my previous post a short time ago with the IR sat link. And when you say broad you aint kidding...That is a BROAD circulation...

SFT

Even at broad it deserves a 10% on the TWO...hopefully they will mention it there and not in Matts Adv.s anymore.

[gatorcane]

Broad rotation around the gulf of Honduras starting to become noticeable. Convection also building there as well..........This has got to be a code yellow at least by the morning.....

We must have been looking at the same thing at the same time...Look at my previous post a short time ago with the IR sat link. And when you say broad you aint kidding...That is a BROAD circulation...

SFT

Ok well at least I'm not the only one that sees it. Large anticyclone sitting right over it also......

[SouthFloridawx]

129 Hour Nogaps...

[SouthFLTropics]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting better

Yep. It's pretty remarkable how all these long range models keep stringing us along making us get worked up over something and when it finally comes to crunch time: nothing. This seems like it will be a non-event. I can't believe I've wasted so much time here following a mythical storm that never was and apparently never will be.

Wasted? Because models still think there will be a storm, and that still could be? I dont think thats a waste of time at all. A model run or 2 of a weaker system doesnt automatically mean Shows over!

Even if it is weaker that doesn't mean the show is over. Tell that to the people who will be flooded out of their homes or the potentially thousands that could die in Central America from mudslides. Just because roofs may not fly off of homes doesn't mean the show is over. There is a lot of time on the clock here...we got a 1st and 10 and we're on our own 5 yard line. A long way to go.

SFT

[gatorcane]

The no gaps is slower and more left. Would be ineresting what the gfdl and hwrf show. This should be an invest by tomorrow evening so tomorrow atbthis time we will see what those models do with it.