Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1361 Postby flair » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:37 am

I hope things go okay for y'all in Fl and nothing too serious happens. The HPC now has the axis of the heaviest rain over eastern NC. This system has the potential to be a drought-buster over parts of the Mid-Atlantic if the current forecast verifies. Many areas are in a severe if not extreme drought. The latest drought statement from NWS Wakefield, VA noted that the James River is flowing at a mere 25% of the mean flow, and the lake that supplies the Richmond metro area is at the lowest level ever recorded.
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Re: Re:

#1362 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:38 am

CourierPR wrote:
KWT wrote:Yeah this just has to be an invest within the next few hours, It is indeed amazing how this still isn't an invest even now...

Slowly getting there but odds are this remains weak...probably gotten lucky that the upper trough has dug so very deep.
I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.


This system won't be weak, but that is how you look at it. The amount of rain that this system will carry, the flooding it could create, and the tornado threat as well aren't really "weak". Winds are just one factor of a tropical cyclone, even though they are the main one.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Caribbean - Code Orange

#1363 Postby boca » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:40 am

It all depends on eventual track to were the heaviest rain sets up because the east side is the dirty side.
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#1364 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:41 am

GFS rolling. Has a 1001 MB low in 24 hours.
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#1365 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:43 am

Oh without a doubt the rain is going to be the proper threat with this, looks like possibly a very wet 7-10 days coming up from both both tropical and frontal features.

However I think this will be one of those classic rainmakers, systems that get so interlocked with frontal/extratropical features like this tend to struggle to really concentrate the energy I find.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1366 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:43 am

I would look closer to the eastern blob for development. Its got more convection to work with right now. The one by near the channel seems to be fizzling. Also noted of 3 buoys in the area all have rising pressures.
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#1367 Postby Vortmax1 » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:44 am

Whatever heavy rains that may or may not be involved with whatever system evolves could just as easily be shunted offshore of East Coast Florida.
I'm not getting too excited about any of it yet.
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Re: Re:

#1368 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:45 am

CourierPR wrote:I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.


Besides your "bad feeling", what are you looking at that would suggest a stronger storm crossing south Florida on Wednesday evening? There really isn't that much time for it to organize and strengthen before it's picked up by the upper-level flow ahead of the cold front. I'd only give it a 40-50% chance of reaching minimal TS strength by the time it passes Florida in 48-60 hrs. And it should be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center. Could have a slightly greater chance of being named between Florida and the Carolinas (50%) but it will be interacting with the cold front by then.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1369 Postby Javlin » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:48 am

18'N 85'W looks like its the area to watch hence the flight is progged for that area also.Now it looks like the front is having little effect maybe because the system is shallow ATM.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1370 Postby Normandy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:49 am

It depends on when it gets classified. If it gets classified today, it has plenty of time in the bathwater of the Caribbean to become pretty strong. If it stalls in organizing (which is what most thing it will do) then the chances go way down.
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#1371 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:50 am

36 hours out, and the system is noticeable farther south and east of its 06z run position in the same timeframe (42 hours in that run).
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1372 Postby boca » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:52 am

This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.
Last edited by boca on Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1373 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:52 am

@48 hours, in the FL straits, still to the east of the 06z run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1374 Postby caneseddy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:53 am

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif
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#1375 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:54 am

I just want to point out that as there is still no dominant LLC, the models are not as reliable as when there is a LLC.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1376 Postby tgenius » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:55 am

boca wrote:This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.


Well you live in Boca.. I live in West Kendall..so it may miss you rain-wise for you up north but not so much for us down south :D
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1377 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:56 am

ROCK wrote:buoy in the Yucatan Channel

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


Good sign that an area of low pressure passed this buoy, but no sign of a closed LLC.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1378 Postby boca » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:56 am

tgenius wrote:
boca wrote:This system looks like it could miss Florida to the east with the heavy rains. That big blob east of Jamaica is at 80w and I don't see this moving directly north most likely NNE thru the Bahamas. The more I look at this system the more I think it might just miss us to the east.


Well you live in Boca.. I live in West Kendall..so it may miss you rain-wise for you up north but not so much for us down south :D


Unless the system has a tight gradient north to south setup we might both miss out.
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Re: Re:

#1379 Postby CourierPR » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:59 am

wxman57 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.


Besides your "bad feeling", what are you looking at that would suggest a stronger storm crossing south Florida on Wednesday evening? There really isn't that much time for it to organize and strengthen before it's picked up by the upper-level flow ahead of the cold front. I'd only give it a 40-50% chance of reaching minimal TS strength by the time it passes Florida in 48-60 hrs. And it should be a sheared system with most squalls east of the center. Could have a slightly greater chance of being named between Florida and the Carolinas (50%) but it will be interacting with the cold front by then.
The 12Z GFS depicts a 996 millibar low impacting South Florida.
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Re: Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange

#1380 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:59 am

caneseddy wrote:12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif


996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.
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