ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

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#381 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 25, 2010 3:27 pm

ex-Julia still has a really pretty, tight circulation...chances for it to regenerate increasing yet?
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#382 Postby Shuriken » Sun Sep 26, 2010 2:16 am

It's still firing sporadic convection -- and it does appear that center of the Bermuda High is going to rotate back overhead on WV. Also, it's nearing a patch of 29c water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ir2.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

I'd guess it only has about another 36hrs to develop more persistent convection or it'll be unable to maintain itself any further.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

#383 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 12:59 pm

Gang, this thread has been moved back into TT in case anyone wishes to talk about it, since the remnant circulation has been tooting off some convection today.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=16
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

#384 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 26, 2010 1:09 pm

Image

the circulation is intact and convection has increased today
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#385 Postby Aquawind » Sun Sep 26, 2010 1:55 pm

Evidently it's a non tropical now because the LLC is obvious and the NHC does not have it on an outlook. Persistant deep convection could change that in time but, that far north already and it's chances to threaten anyone are pretty much non-existant I would think.
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#386 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 2:05 pm

Aquawind wrote:Evidently it's a non tropical now because the LLC is obvious and the NHC does not have it on an outlook. Persistant deep convection could change that in time but, that far north already and it's chances to threaten anyone are pretty much non-existant I would think.


Actually, both the 12Z GFS and ECM take the H85 vortmax associated with ex-J and swing it NW pretty close to Bermuda by Monday night. Granted it's a pretty small/weak feature right now, but it wouldn't hurt the folks out that way to keep an eye on it
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#387 Postby Aquawind » Sun Sep 26, 2010 2:08 pm

Oh just leave those poor people alone..lol
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

#388 Postby Shuriken » Sun Sep 26, 2010 2:40 pm

AJC3 wrote:Gang, this thread has been moved back into TT in case anyone wishes to talk about it, since the remnant circulation has been tooting off some convection today.
I wish they wouldn't move threads to the archives until the circulation no longer exists; it's not only disconcerting, but (as we see in this case) inadvisable for Atlantic systems.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

#389 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 2:45 pm

Shuriken wrote:
AJC3 wrote:Gang, this thread has been moved back into TT in case anyone wishes to talk about it, since the remnant circulation has been tooting off some convection today.
I wish they wouldn't move threads to the archives until the circulation no longer exists; it's not only disconcerting, but (as we see in this case) inadvisable for Atlantic systems.


If there's a threat of a comeback, it will be left in the active storms forum for a few days. We play these by ear, as to prevent the active storms forum from getting too cluttered.
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#390 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 3:18 pm

Well, convection has been sustained through today, there is a clear llc, and it is dropping south toward warmer waters.
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#391 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 3:42 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Well, convection has been sustained through today, there is a clear llc, and it is dropping south toward warmer waters.


Minor quibble....it's been pretty much moving due westward the last couple of days.
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#392 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:03 pm

It looks better than would-be Nicole right now! It's got steady convection, a good circulation, and it is tracking toward Bermuda, so it's not like it would be a waste classifying it.
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#393 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:06 pm

Someone shoot the NHC an email?
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#394 Postby Shuriken » Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:44 pm

Hot-tower convection directly over the center now with good outflow all directions. Julia is clearly winding back up fast, and ought to be re-classified as a TD this evening.
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#395 Postby Shuriken » Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

#396 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2010 12:39 pm

Hey,Ex Julia gets a mention at 2 PM TWO.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#397 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 27, 2010 12:42 pm

Image

Not looking too hot
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#398 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 27, 2010 12:44 pm

I have to say that this has been a rather fascinating feature to watch. Ex-Julia just refuses to go away and I have to also admit that this system definitely seems as if it wants to regenerate. It has NHC's attention again, with them now placing a 10% yellow circle back over it.
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#399 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Sep 27, 2010 12:48 pm

It looked better yesterday, for sure. Does anyone know if Julia is still being tracked in the RBT?
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Re:

#400 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 27, 2010 12:50 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:It looked better yesterday, for sure. Does anyone know if Julia is still being tracked in the RBT?


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