ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

10/1745 UTC 13.4N 80.8W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

AL, 98, 2010101018, , BEST, 0, 134N, 808W, 25, 1007, LO

best track and dvorak agree on position

[cycloneye]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast.

[chaser1]

I believe that a new center "may exist" ( or perhaps soon will ) near 14N and 82W, where a more vigorous mid level COC may be. If Best Track is to be accepted, than perhaps the reason NHC has been reluctant to pull the "TD Trigger" is because the center of the anticyclone remains offset to the east somewhat. The net result would appear to be that 98L is possibly experiencing a little Easterly ( or S.E. ) shear - thus the appearant motion of the overall envelope to the WNW. Meanwhile a feature I was earlier looking at ( south of the circulation ) which confused me as low/mid level clouds moving AWAY from the system, now becomes more appearant as the northerly and westerly flow on the backside of the center that is identified by Best Track. I believe this feature will unwind, while a new COC forms under the deep convection to its west.

The way I look at it, if Best Track is correct, than we have a NNW moving system under moderate easterly shear, soon to be decimated by westerly shear. If I'm correct, than we might soon have a briefly named Tropical Storm - Paula , which though barely at the surface is moving more to the WNW and potentially short lived due to land interaction near the Nicarauga/Honduras border, and eventually with Belize.

[Weatherfreak000]

No fat lady is singing here...this thing would pretty much need to barrel into Central America not to develop at this point. The NHC is gonna have to answer up to a ton of extra TD time when they do post-analysis. I mean geez there are surface orbs everywhere.....dvorak has a 2.0.....



I mean no disrespect but this is yet again another example of the inconsistency the NHC displays regarding classification every single year and I think they owe the scientific community as well as us weather enthusiasts a reasonable explanation. I personally don't believe it's responsible to EVER have to add tons of storm time, they simply neglect to account for and un-named systems that seem to be forming just about every year nowadays.



To anyone that disagrees I completely respect your opinions. I am sure you can tell I clearly think this is a TD and I believe the only 60% percentage worth using here is well, looks like a 60% chance we wake up tomorrow and there is the P storm. I only ask one thing to anyone that disagrees, if we can want to take records like ACE seriously, does that not mean it should be 100% imperative on a scientific basis to be as close to 100% consistent with storm classification as humanly possible?

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[supercane]

I agree that given this ASCAT

that this may already be a TD, although it looks somewhat enlongated and the lack of convection right at the center hurts it. However, your ACE argument doesn't make sense. TDs do not contribute at all to ACE, as it is only calculated for systems with at least 35kt sustained winds. Furthermore, low-grade TSs do not accumulate much ACE. For instance, a whole day of a 40kt TS garners only 0.48 of ACE, which is insignificant when looking back at a whole season.

[chaser1]

"...I mean geez there are surface orbs everywhere.....dvorak has a 2.0....."

'Freak, in a way I kinda agree with you, but also NHC. I believe a new center is or has formed more towards the west and more co-located under the convection. If so, than I would probably argue calling the system a depression. However, if NHC continues to follow and plot the swirl located at the Dvorak ( Best Track ) coordinates, than their argument would understandably be that the system continues to lack a centralized COC with any convective banding, while all the deep convection remains displaced to the west. Furthermore, until such a time that any new center can be determined to have relocated, surface convergence would appear to be further compromised to the north, due to a persistent vorticity which though limited, is robbing 98L of ideal inflow. This other feature is interesting, yet already far enough to the north ( 18/19N ) that it appears to be getting fanned by the brisk WSW'erly shear present there.

[Florida1118]

They may upgrade it soon, just have it at 60% BECAUSE of the lack of model support. They should be upgrading soon...I hope.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like no S winds on the east side of the circulation Makes sense now why this isnt a TD yet. Very close though.

[x-y-no]

OK ... can someone explain what the heck is going on with these wind-barbs?


Are they plotted backwards by accident?

[Blown Away]

TAFB has been consistent bringing 98L into the NW Caribbean after skimming the Honduras coast. The slow movement looks NW or NNW, so the TAFB solution seems reasonable. A few models show 98L moving WNW now towards CA and bury 98L over land, doesn't seem likely right now and that means I have to discount the TCVN consensus, which I don't like to do. JMHO

[supercane]

x-y-no, those are the winds that ASCAT reported, and if true, are not entirely consistent with a well-organized circulation. From OSI's site,

Again, no one denies the presence of a low, but the question remains as to how well organized it is.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no, those are the winds that ASCAT reported, and if true, are not entirely consistent with a well-organized circulation. From OSI's site,
...
Again, no one denies the presence of a low, but the question remains as to how well organized it is.

Hmmm ... makes no sense that there would be an area of anti-cyclonic veering in the midst of a low ... awfully suspicious looking to me.

[Dean4Storms]

No doubt this would be proclaimed a TD in the Gulf, it is a rather broad LLC but an LLC none the less.

[Vortex]

The circulation appears to be is opening up and modest SE shear is blowing the tops off to the NW. The models indicating little development once again appear to have the right idea...We may get a storm out of the western carribean late in the month but I'm not expecting much the next 7-10 days....

[Vortex]

NWS Miami:


.EXTENDED FORECAST...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BACK SOUTH AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE CWA LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

[jconsor]

Yes, the wind barbs on the east side of the system are clearly backwards. Compare the NNW barbs on the east side of the system with the barbs adjacent to them and you can see that.

OK ... can someone explain what the heck is going on with these wind-barbs?


Are they plotted backwards by accident?

[jconsor]

Take a close look at the visible loop here (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) and you will see that the low-level level circulation is reforming further NW, about 50 miles SE of the Nicaragua/Honduras coastal border. If anything, this circulation is tightening with improved banding in the past few hours. This reforming northward was indicated by all global models.

The circulation appears to be is opening up and modest SE shear is blowing the tops off to the NW. The models indicating little development once again appear to have the right idea...We may get a storm out of the western carribean late in the month but I'm not expecting much the next 7-10 days....

[chaser1]

14N and 82W ...that's my story, and i'm stickin' with it! My general rule for possible center relocation - follow the shear. I could easily be off base here, but if so, would explain why NHC is so reluctant to call the system a depression. One, surface winds not at the surface ( at least where I would project a reforming center ), and two being that the current vorticity center has NORTH winds in the immediate eastern quadrant.

If this mess can somehow stay clear of land interaction, than would assume should have a short lived opportunity to earn a name sometime tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

To add to jconsor post, the latest ASCAT pass does give pause to the possiblity that the center is reforming further N...



Edit to add visible imagery and you can see that changes are occurring...