ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[KWT]

Looks a little sheared to me actually looking at the Vis.imagery, its CLEAR as day this is at least a depression, you don't need recon to see this is a closed low, just looking at the Vis imagery and how strong the eastern side is is pretty much a giveaway, I bet its not even marginal.

ps, that ob overland also makes it perfectly obvious there is a decent LLC in place.

[CrazyC83]

I agree reanalysis will back it up quite a bit. I think they will find TS Paula personally.

[Evil Jeremy]

Really though, the Special TWO I think means that once they have recon support, they will issue a Special Advisory. It wouldn't surprise me if they are already drafting the advisory, and just waiting for recon's information for..... whatever reason.

[KWT]

I'm not sure what information the NHC are waiting for from recon, I highly doubt recon will be able to sample the southern side anyway given the position of the system so the only thing they are going to learn is whether this is has TD/TS winds or not I'd have thought?

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure what information the NHC are waiting for from recon, I highly doubt recon will be able to sample the southern side anyway given the position of the system so the only thing they are going to learn is whether this is has TD/TS winds or not I'd have thought?

If that is the case, they should just initialize as TD18 right now then upgrade to Paula if needed at the 2 pm intermediate.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sure what information the NHC are waiting for from recon, I highly doubt recon will be able to sample the southern side anyway given the position of the system so the only thing they are going to learn is whether this is has TD/TS winds or not I'd have thought?

If that is the case, they should just initialize as TD18 right now then upgrade to Paula if needed at the 2 pm intermediate.

Many of us think they should do that

[HURAKAN]

A very "Special" day:

Special Tropical Weather Discussion
Special Tropical Weather Outlook

maybe later today,

Special Advisory

[SouthDadeFish]

A very "Special" day:

Special Tropical Weather Discussion
Special Tropical Weather Outlook

maybe later today,

Special Advisory

Haha, let's just hope this storm doesn't turn out to be "special." I'm beginning to think the trough that's sticking out the NE of the circulation is helping 98L more than hindering it now. It seems to aid in moistening up the bone dry path ahead of it.

[jmsewe0]

Hope you guys don't mind if I join the discussion here. I found this thread via googling Invest 98.

I am actually traveling to the yucatan peninsula (a few miles south of Playa Del Carmen) for vacation this week. We are scheduled to arrive Thursday around noon. Since I am not well versed in this forecasting stuff, anyone have any thoughts on when this thing will be hitting that area?

If this is not pertinent to this board, I understand. Feel free to delete this thread.

Didnt mean to

Thanks! Josh

[GCANE]

We still need to watch the closest buoy which is not all that far away.

Surface pressures are still steady,

[Blown Away]

If/when 98L gets upgraded will the the 120 hour position be at hurricane status? I say yes!

[MWatkins]

Based on only visible imagery, and looking at the low-level cloud structure, I would put the center just over water.

MW

[SouthDadeFish]

jmsewe0,

I would definitely keep a close eye on this disturbance. It appears likely that the NHC will begin to issue advisories this afternoon, and once they do, we should get a better picture of what's going to happen. If I were you I would look for the TS wind probability outlook at your location once advisories begin.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jconsor]

Given that 98L continues to move NW and the ridge to its east isn't strong enough to bend it back more to the WNW/W in the next 2 days, I can't see NHC dropping probabilities due to the current proximity to land.

I think this will be designated a TD or TS in reanalysis extending back since Saturday. I'm still not sure why NHC is going against all the evidence... T numbers, microwave imagery, visible imagery, and ASCAT. Models aren't bullish on development, but are they really initializing the system well? I'm not so sure. The convection isn't right over the center, but that should not be a requirement for a tropical cyclone. If that were the case, we'd have to downgrade every sheared hurricane once it becomes asymmetric. Recon will be in there later, but with the system so close to land, they might not be able to get a VDM out. I can see the NHC going either way this afternoon: dropping probabilities significantly due to proximity to land or upgrading the system to a TD or TS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Lempira, Honduras:

Noon (16) Oct 11 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) SSW 16 heavy rain

[cycloneye]

Puerto Lempira, Honduras:

Noon (16) Oct 11 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) SSW 16 heavy rain

That means low is over water just off the coast.

[GCANE]

Wow, core has just snapped nicely in place and not very wide.

Heavy convection firing right over the LCC.

Once this gets out into more open water, could ramp up quickly espcially with the anti-cyclone overhead.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection continues to expand to the SE, an indicator that shear is lightening over the center.