
ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
If TS Paula is out there, why does the picture of active tropical storms and invests on the home page of this site say "no active storms?"


0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
It appears the NHC experts are jumping on board with the scenario that the current shortwave moving over the Central Plains and moving eastward will not be strong enough to pick up Paula out of the NW Caribbean.
It is very plausible that Paula could meander around this region for days to come and never get out of the Caribbean.
It is very plausible that Paula could meander around this region for days to come and never get out of the Caribbean.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- x-y-no
- Category 5
- Posts: 8359
- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
sunnyday wrote:If TS Paula is out there, why does the picture of active tropical storms and invests on the home page of this site say "no active storms?"
Hamweather is a little slow to update sometimes.
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11161
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
It is also possible this drifts into the Yucatan and dissipates...a la 12z Euro
0 likes
Michael
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....
Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE or ENE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145330
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
IMO,Paula will pass the 150 unit line (14 units away) to turn the 2010 Atlantic season into hyperactive.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
- FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1033
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
If this thing hovers off the coast of the Yucatan for a day or two, it could bottom out into a very intense storm. I'm holding my breath on this one.
0 likes
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:IMO,Paula will pass the 150 unit line (14 units away) to turn the 2010 Atlantic season into hyperactive.
I agree if it sits in the NW Carib. If it gets picked up by the trough than we'll still have a little ways to go. But if the trough misses it, we might have Paula hanging around until the 2011 season

0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....
Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.
Yeah, the GFDL is the one reliable model that I love to use for tropical cyclones. If Paula strengthens to a solid cat 2 hurricane, that could make her strong enough in the upper levels to feel the influence of the shortwave trough by the end of the next 120 hours. Of course, this is provided only if Paula isn't disrupted by land interaction.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
Generally the stronger the storm, the more it is drawn poleward. If this strengthens more than expected (which it looks like its doing right now), theoretically it should be more likely to be drawn into the shortwave, right?
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Not at all surprising they are keeping this in the CAribbean, the models are somewhat all over the place at the moment, only the GFDL manages to lift this out quickly, quite a few do suggest the weak current set-up, just gotta hope the system isn't close to land if that happens otherwise it could be another Mitch set-up.
Also I'd bet if that happens the NHC forecast would be way too low, though they do note the shear aloft I think if it stayed on the NHC track the shear probably won't dip quite that far south...we will see, either way this could be a very interesting week...
Eventually this one is gonna get taken to the NE...its just when that occurs thats the real question folks!
Also I'd bet if that happens the NHC forecast would be way too low, though they do note the shear aloft I think if it stayed on the NHC track the shear probably won't dip quite that far south...we will see, either way this could be a very interesting week...
Eventually this one is gonna get taken to the NE...its just when that occurs thats the real question folks!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
Macrocane wrote::eek: Look at that "circle" of uncertainty.
I think that big "Cone/sphere of uncertainty is it just showing that they believe the system will "stall out" for all intents and purposes at about 120 hours out I believe? wxman can correct me if I am wrong.



Last edited by canes101 on Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
2010 Archive: HURRICANE ALEX, TD TWO, TS BONNIE, TS COLIN, TD FIVE, HURRICANE DANIELLE, HURRICANE EARL, TS FIONA, TS GASTON, TS HERMINE, HURRICANE IGOR, HURRICANE JULIA, HURRICANE KARL, HURRICANE LISA, TS MATTHEW, TS NICOLE, HURRICANE OTTO, HURRICANE PAULA (Active)
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
Is there any archived record of a NW Caribbean system that looped and stayed strong upon exiting out?
Climatology seems to tend towards the strongest storms being direct track storms - but I could be wrong.
Climatology seems to tend towards the strongest storms being direct track storms - but I could be wrong.
0 likes
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....
Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE or ENE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.
Sounds reasonable to me Gatorcane, though I think it may well slow right down like Wilma did before it makes that turn and the GFDL is a little on the fast side with it.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL : Tropical Storm PAULA - Discussion
Evil Jeremy wrote:Generally the stronger the storm, the more it is drawn poleward. If this strengthens more than expected (which it looks like its doing right now), theoretically it should be more likely to be drawn into the shortwave, right?
Right. If she is strengthening at the rate it is currently doing, then it is possible the cyclone being stronger will possibly feel the W- SW upper level wind flow ahead of the shortwave that will be moving eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley later this week and eventually off the Middle Atlantic region by this weekend.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests