ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[sunnyday]

If TS Paula is out there, why does the picture of active tropical storms and invests on the home page of this site say "no active storms?"

[fci]

Now that is the definition of "uncertainty"!

[northjaxpro]

It appears the NHC experts are jumping on board with the scenario that the current shortwave moving over the Central Plains and moving eastward will not be strong enough to pick up Paula out of the NW Caribbean.

It is very plausible that Paula could meander around this region for days to come and never get out of the Caribbean.

[x-y-no]

If TS Paula is out there, why does the picture of active tropical storms and invests on the home page of this site say "no active storms?"

Hamweather is a little slow to update sometimes.

[Ivanhater]

It is also possible this drifts into the Yucatan and dissipates...a la 12z Euro

[SouthDadeFish]

But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....

[gatorcane]

But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....

Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE or ENE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.

[cycloneye]

IMO,Paula will pass the 150 unit line (14 units away) to turn the 2010 Atlantic season into hyperactive.

[Dean4Storms]

I can see the chance of both scenario's for now happening and they are about even. If deep enough it could get caught up in the trough. If it stays rather weak and gets over land it could stay put.

Going to be a close call either way.

[FLpanhandle91]

If this thing hovers off the coast of the Yucatan for a day or two, it could bottom out into a very intense storm. I'm holding my breath on this one.

[SouthDadeFish]

IMO,Paula will pass the 150 unit line (14 units away) to turn the 2010 Atlantic season into hyperactive.

I agree if it sits in the NW Carib. If it gets picked up by the trough than we'll still have a little ways to go. But if the trough misses it, we might have Paula hanging around until the 2011 season

[northjaxpro]

But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....

Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.

Yeah, the GFDL is the one reliable model that I love to use for tropical cyclones. If Paula strengthens to a solid cat 2 hurricane, that could make her strong enough in the upper levels to feel the influence of the shortwave trough by the end of the next 120 hours. Of course, this is provided only if Paula isn't disrupted by land interaction.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone know what strength the 18Z models initialized at?

[Evil Jeremy]

Generally the stronger the storm, the more it is drawn poleward. If this strengthens more than expected (which it looks like its doing right now), theoretically it should be more likely to be drawn into the shortwave, right?

[wxman57]

Anyone know what strength the 18Z models initialized at?

40 kts.

[KWT]

Not at all surprising they are keeping this in the CAribbean, the models are somewhat all over the place at the moment, only the GFDL manages to lift this out quickly, quite a few do suggest the weak current set-up, just gotta hope the system isn't close to land if that happens otherwise it could be another Mitch set-up.

Also I'd bet if that happens the NHC forecast would be way too low, though they do note the shear aloft I think if it stayed on the NHC track the shear probably won't dip quite that far south...we will see, either way this could be a very interesting week...

Eventually this one is gonna get taken to the NE...its just when that occurs thats the real question folks!

[canes101]

:eek: Look at that "circle" of uncertainty.

I think that big "Cone/sphere of uncertainty is it just showing that they believe the system will "stall out" for all intents and purposes at about 120 hours out I believe? wxman can correct me if I am wrong.

[Sanibel]

Is there any archived record of a NW Caribbean system that looped and stayed strong upon exiting out?


Climatology seems to tend towards the strongest storms being direct track storms - but I could be wrong.

[KWT]

But then again none of the models really developed Paula to a strength that it has already achieved, minus the GFDL, which recurves it....

Yeah I think if this gets to major hurricane status in the NW Carib, a deeper system is going to get pulled NE or ENE by the Plains trough by days 4 and 5. The GFDL supports this thinking, though its not quite a major in the GFDL run.

Sounds reasonable to me Gatorcane, though I think it may well slow right down like Wilma did before it makes that turn and the GFDL is a little on the fast side with it.

[northjaxpro]

Generally the stronger the storm, the more it is drawn poleward. If this strengthens more than expected (which it looks like its doing right now), theoretically it should be more likely to be drawn into the shortwave, right?

Right. If she is strengthening at the rate it is currently doing, then it is possible the cyclone being stronger will possibly feel the W- SW upper level wind flow ahead of the shortwave that will be moving eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley later this week and eventually off the Middle Atlantic region by this weekend.