ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

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Aquawind
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#781 Postby Aquawind » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:06 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest ir loops, shear across the se gom and southern Florida doesn't look all that bad. You can tell by how the outflow of Paula is fanning out over the fl straits rather than racing off to the east.

As I have said previously, I wouldn't trust the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range and this is why.



I hear ya.. I have posted this WV since we got the first fropa in the Fl weather thread and you can see this is pushing up into the dry air.. How far north it gets is yet to be seen but, it is clearly changing the enviroment to the north..

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#782 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:09 pm

I'm guessing the NHC will keep a similar type track at the 11pm for consistency and to prevent the windshield wiper effect. But if the models continue this trend by 5 am we will probably see a shift in the track.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby sunnyday » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:10 pm

A shift which way? 8-)
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#784 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:14 pm

sunnyday wrote:A shift which way? 8-)


North, towards us. We might be in the cone by this time tomorrow. I actually think we will be.

Anyways, I will stay up for the first recon pass. Yea, I have school tomorrow but.... What can I say, nothing thrills me like recon data lol.
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#785 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:14 pm

A shift pointed more towards the Florida Straights is my thinking. Probably will lean towards a slower solution to balance out the scenarios.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#786 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:15 pm

Perhaps it's me, but shear does not seem to be a problem tonight IMO over Paula...

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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#787 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:21 pm

According to the latest CIMSS analysis wind shear over the system is between 10 kt and 15 kt and the shear tendency is negative so conditions are going to be good tonight.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:22 pm

Wow... Still going...
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#789 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:23 pm

Macrocane wrote:According to the latest CIMSS analysis wind shear over the system is between 10 kt and 15 kt and the shear tendency is negative so conditions are going to be good tonight.


Actually its less than 10 knots right over the center and to the SE. Quite favorable conditions.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#790 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:24 pm

Clearly those cold cloud tops are over the center.
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#791 Postby floridastorm88 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:24 pm

wow! i dont think we gettin a major cane this late... comment please im prayin we dont we dont need it in fla for sure just a lil bit of rain thats it
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#792 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:31 pm

From the latest satellite image of Paula, looks like it could undergo rapid intensification.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#793 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:33 pm

I'm still AGOG that people don't expect majors from early July until late October or even November, given the last decade. Were people asleep during, say Wilma, Omar, Michelle or, lest we forget him, bonkers old Lenny?

Now I'm not necessarily saying this will be a major but there's a very good reason every season lasts officially all the way through November.
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#794 Postby floridastorm88 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:39 pm

not forgetting just hopin n prayin i really dont think it will be major they have blew alot of storms
up and nothing has happened
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:41 pm

floridastorm88 wrote:wow! i dont think we gettin a major cane this late... comment please im prayin we dont we dont need it in fla for sure just a lil bit of rain thats it

What makes yo think a major cant be born? With a low confidence forecast, dont be so sure.... And wow took me about 25mins to read all the pages from when I left the board 18hrs. ago.
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#796 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:41 pm

Paula looks great. i can't wait to see what the nhc does at 11. the 5 pm call looked a bit indecisive.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#797 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:45 pm

Paula looks like it could be a hurricane. NHC will wait for confirmation from recon before upgrading. I'm not sure if it'll be trapped in the Caribbean for a week or more or if it'll be picked up by the approaching trof and accelerated across Cuba and the Bahamas by Wed/Thu. NHC's 3Z track is in between these two possibilities now, taking it to near the Isle of Pines in 5 days. They weaken it to a 45 kt TS by then, though. Not sure about that.
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#798 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:45 pm

They held it to 60 knots (70 mph).
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#799 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:45 pm

According to Wunderground's graphics, extreme SW FL is now in the cone.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:49 pm

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