ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

KWT · #941 Postby **KWT** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:25 am

Recon is heading into the system right now so we will get a good indication soon where this is at.

Also looks like the core is starting to get close enough for the Cancun radar to see just the first part of the NW eyewall...

#942 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:26 am

not looking good in the IR

KWT · #943 Postby **KWT** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:26 am

Hurakan, yeah that IR isn't nearly as good as it looks like on the Microwave/Vis iamgery...I'd imagine the dry air is causing a few issues right now still on the strength of the convection...

#944 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:44 am

no question, Paula is definitely taking a little beating by ingesting the dry air surrounding her within the NW Caribbean. We will see what Recon finds shortly, but looking at IR right now, I would not be surprised if the system may be downgraded back to 65 mph T.S. on the next advisory.

Bocadude85 · #945 Postby **Bocadude85** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:47 am

northjaxpro wrote:no question, Paula is definitely taking a little beating by ingesting the dry air surrounding her within the NW Caribbean. We will see what Recon finds shortly, but looking at IR right now, I would not be surprised if the system may be downgraded back to 65 mph T.S. on the next advisory.

Still a hurricane as of the 11am advisory.. discussion says 65kts could be a little conservative.

#946 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:49 am

small systems tend to intensify fast and also weaken fast

#947 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:49 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:no question, Paula is definitely taking a little beating by ingesting the dry air surrounding her within the NW Caribbean. We will see what Recon finds shortly, but looking at IR right now, I would not be surprised if the system may be downgraded back to 65 mph T.S. on the next advisory.

Still a hurricane as of the 11am advisory.. discussion says 65kts could be a little conservative.

O.K. So, they kept it at hurricane status, but to me it is barely one at this time. The dry air is beginning to take its toll on the cyclone.

#948 Postby **psyclone** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:51 am

we've had November-like weather for the entire month of October thus far and it shows no sign of abating anytime soon. typically tropical cyclones encounter tough sledding once they leave the caribbean in such a pattern and i think paula will be absolutely evicerated should she attempt to head toward florida as wxman's map shows. evidently this year november has 61 days. talk about a get out of jail free card...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#949 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:52 am

4 times in a row now:

"THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW."

KWT · #950 Postby **KWT** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:53 am

Yeah the track is very uncertain still the models still are struggling to get to grips with this system, the strength probably will be quite key to this set-up.

petit_bois · #951 Postby **petit_bois** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:56 am

Low confidence on the track but high confidence on the sheer in the latter part of the forcast....

#952 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:57 am

eye peeking out

#953 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:59 am

HURAKAN wrote:http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9931/goes14312010285u93omx.jpg

eye peeking out

Is there enough convection to support an eye right now? Cloud tops have been warming in these last few frames:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Sanibel · #954 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:15 am

There's definitely a hurricane shield over CONUS this year.

Best form yet but warming.

Wobble west towards Yucatan.

petit_bois · #955 Postby **petit_bois** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:16 am

Wow...
Hurricane in the NW Crib. Possible eye forming. Possible intesnification. Recon heading in.
And most everyone on the board has abandoned her. Where did everyone go?

#956 Postby **AdamFirst** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:17 am

petit_bois wrote:Wow...
Hurricane in the NW Crib. Possible eye forming. Possible intesnification. Recon heading in.
And most everyone on the board has abandoned her. Where did everyone go?

"Florida" has been taken out of the equation

kevin · #957 Postby **kevin** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:17 am

I predict this dissipates by tonight.

#958 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:17 am

C6SE7 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Oct. 12 - 13:00 UTC

Wind: ENE at 51 mph
Pressure: 1013 mb
Weather: Mostly clear
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

#959 Postby **AdamFirst** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:27 am

kevin wrote:I predict this dissipates by tonight.

No chance.

#960 Postby **jlauderdal** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:29 am

[quote="HURAKAN"]C6SE7 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Oct. 12 - 13:00 UTC

Wind: ENE at 51 mph
Pressure: 1013 mb
Weather: Mostly clear
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

that whole report looks suspicious except for the sst

ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re:

Who is online