Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Metalicwx220]

:uarrow: Getting a little too excited about something at 260 hours away.

The GFS had been showing a major snowstorm for the South for the last five days or so and you see how it doesn't show it anymore. I'm not going to put much stock into anything the models show outside of 5 days, especially when there is no consensus.

I know that.LOL its been showing that everyday though. Has 1-2 inches of snow in florida.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-251930-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
606 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WINFIELD...TO PIEDMONT...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-65.
LESSER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM
REFORM...TO PINSON...TO ROANOKE.

THIS REMAINS A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM...AND SLIGHT CHANGES WILL
ULTIMATELY AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED FOR
FORECAST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Ynotndalton]

The thing is not to get excited about a GIANT snowstorm forecasted 300 hours away.... But get excited instead of a gulf low and cold air setup .. The general overall picture.. which gives a chance for an event to eventually verify. Doesn't mean it will be a great snowstorm all the way to florida.. ignore the details that far out.. instead look at the big picture.. Southern stream energy .. cold air to the north of it.. It's a setup for a chance for an event.. not a set in stone forecast.

[bella_may]

So is it pretty much a sure thing it will snow in south mississippi the first week of feb.? Or is it still kinda iffy?

[Tstormwatcher]

It's iffy at best.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't put much stock in any of it just yet.

[Kennethb]

It could snow in the deep south (I-10 corridor) the first week of February as much as it may not snow here for another 10 years or more.

[Jag95]

ECMWF shows a polar vortex working it's way SSE in Canada through 7 days with a 1044mb high off to the west. Looks locked and loaded on the 1/31.

[Metalicwx220]

I just love how IT Disappears like that.

[vbhoutex]

It could snow in the deep south (I-10 corridor) the first week of February as much as it may not snow here for another 10 years or more.

Truer words were never spoken!!

[Ivanhater]

Metalicwx, have you been paying attention to what we have been saying? You can't look at the snowfall maps to determine if there will be a storm or not. It is much more complex. I refer back to wxman57's post from this morning.

Edited by wxman57:

The first image below is the GFS ensemble forecast of 500mb (mid level) height anomalies valid Tuesday evening, February 1st. The map shows building high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest and a deepening low over the eastern Hudson Bay region extending all the way southwest to west of Texas.

The suggestion here is that the building ridge will drive very cold air southward out of Canada but that the trof axis will remain west of the cold air next Tue-Wed. This is a setup for snow across the Deep South.



The European version of the same map has an even deeper area of low pressure west of the cold air across the southwestern U.S. next Tuesday evening. The European model is more bullish on southern stream energy with the cold air in place, meaning a greater chance for Deep South snow next week.

[Ynotndalton]

I think its going to be interesting from a meteorology standpoint to watch this highly dynamic cold core upper low in action tomm evening -> Wed morning creating it's own atmosphere to work with.

[Ynotndalton]

Radars will be reflecting as if rain in many places across alabama and tenn tomm where it will actually be snowing heavily for a while.

[Metalicwx220]

Metalicwx, have you been paying attention to what we have been saying? You can't look at the snowfall maps to determine if there will be a storm or not. It is much more complex. I refer back to wxman57's post from this morning.

Edited by wxman57:

The first image below is the GFS ensemble forecast of 500mb (mid level) height anomalies valid Tuesday evening, February 1st. The map shows building high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest and a deepening low over the eastern Hudson Bay region extending all the way southwest to west of Texas.

The suggestion here is that the building ridge will drive very cold air southward out of Canada but that the trof axis will remain west of the cold air next Tue-Wed. This is a setup for snow across the Deep South.



The European version of the same map has an even deeper area of low pressure west of the cold air across the southwestern U.S. next Tuesday evening. The European model is more bullish on southern stream energy with the cold air in place, meaning a greater chance for Deep South snow next week.

I pay attention I just don't look at it that way. I like to see it even though analyzing it is much better as you all are doing.

[Metalicwx220]

I think its going to be interesting from a meteorology standpoint to watch this highly dynamic cold core upper low in action tomm evening -> Wed morning creating it's own atmosphere to work with.

YEAH....... lets see is their an 8 inch blizzard like in the carolinas that couldn't be predicted 6 hours out. It never ceases to amaze me from these situations.

[Brent]

The smell of FAIL is in the air... the 0z models don't have a single snowflake below Huntsville.

[Ynotndalton]

Ya i've noticed brent the best forcing with the UL seems to have migrated north the last few runs now moving from north MS through north al into east tenn.. probably missing me in N ga as well.. which explains NWS peachtree's reluctance to bite.

[Ynotndalton]

BTW.. finally the local news out of Chattanooga .. channel 9 finally mentioned something about watching the potential for a big snowstorm the first week of Feb.

[Ivanhater]

Oh look, our 1st week of February storm is still there on the 00z GFS

Again, we will focus on the details as we get closer to the event. We have the cold and we have the storm, couldn't ask for more at this point

[Ynotndalton]

I agree brent.. i'm excited about the setup.. someone will get a snowstorm.. somewhere out of this..