Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3221 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:54 am

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS ensembles is frigid for Texas. GFS is obviously on crack regarding temps....



Dealer must have dropped the price this year. It seems to be on it a lot more lately.

Btw, Euro at 192hrs has the -10 line reaching the coast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3222 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:57 am

iorange55 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z GFS ensembles is frigid for Texas. GFS is obviously on crack regarding temps....



Dealer must have dropped the price this year. It seems to be on it a lot more lately.

Btw, Euro at 192hrs has the -10 line reaching the coast.


Single digits...that looks like a map from 1989.
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#3223 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:59 am

How far does the Euro show the cold air getting, all the way to the Gulf coast? Does it spread east into LA?
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Re:

#3224 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:03 am

BigB0882 wrote:How far does the Euro show the cold air getting, all the way to the Gulf coast? Does it spread east into LA?



You'd be mighty cold too. Also 216hrs it starts to warm up a little here, but the "magic" line gets all the way into central mexico.
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Re:

#3225 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:04 am

BigB0882 wrote:How far does the Euro show the cold air getting, all the way to the Gulf coast? Does it spread east into LA?


Plenty cold. Days below freezing verbatim on the euro. Don't take it too personally right now. But I am pretty surprised tonight. I didn't see that coming from the euro...+PNA

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#3226 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 2:43 am

I guess we should all enjoy that run while it lasts, it has to be warmer next time, right? I can't imagine it staying that cold for multiple runs, that would just be too...ideal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3227 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 6:33 am

That's the first Euro run I've seen which actually seems to fit the 500mb flow it's projecting (along with the GFS and Canadian 500mb flow). I'd tend to believe it, as temps in Canada are extremely cold now.
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#3228 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:24 am

Alright so we've got the Canadian and Euro (ensembles too) all saying cold cold cold. But they are a bit less happy about one big storm (0z). GFS is not so cold cold but is more happy about a big cut off low spinning in the southwest into TX (6z). I say we take the best of both (frankly because I like it that way :cheesy: :ggreen:)!
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Re:

#3229 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:33 am

Ntxw wrote:Alright so we've got the Canadian and Euro (ensembles too) all saying cold cold cold. But they are a bit less happy about one big storm (0z). GFS is not so cold cold but is more happy about a big cut off low spinning in the southwest into TX (6z). I say we take the best of both (frankly because I like it that way :cheesy: :ggreen:)!


The Portastorm Weather Center believes in bringing nationalities from all places under one tent, so why not combine the Canadian and Euro with the Americans? Excellent idea Ntxw.

Pipe busting cold and no snow vs. cold and snow/sleet/ice ... we'll always prefer the latter. :wink:

The PWC is also curious why no one last night mentioned our friends, the Brits? The UKMet brings winter fun for everyone in Texas by Tuesday.
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Re: Re:

#3230 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:42 am

Portastorm wrote:Pipe busting cold and no snow vs. cold and snow/sleet/ice ... we'll always prefer the latter. :wink:

The PWC is also curious why no one last night mentioned our friends, the Brits? The UKMet brings winter fun for everyone in Texas by Tuesday.


We were all to shocked to keep our heads straight for the UKMET in sight of this.

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3231 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:02 am

I'd tend to NOT believe the GFS's holding back of the trof to our west next week. It's made that error with past fronts, and I think it may be in error again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3232 Postby benrayrog » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:07 am

So we've heard all the back and forth and experienced the ups and downs, but what is the best guess by our distinguished experts on here on what to expect next week. I mean as of right now -- subject to change, of course! Just curious what some of you guys and ladies would predict right now. Thanks and having a blast -- a winter blast -- enjoying all the discussions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3233 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:14 am

My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3234 Postby benrayrog » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:42 am

wxman57 wrote:My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.


Thanks.

How soon will you and others be able to dial in with some confidence the possibility of precipitation to accompany the cold?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3235 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:50 am

Are the models trending away from any sort of Gulf system now and more towards a Plains storm?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3236 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:54 am

wxman57 wrote:My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.


With rain in the forecast for the weekend and the 'coldest air of the season' expected around Tuesday, I suspect folks are wondering will they need to make some preparations prior to the foul weather. How long of duration (24/48 hours) are you thinking wxman57 regarding below freezing temps, should that scenario play out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3237 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:07 am

wxman57 wrote:My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.

Wow, wxman57 you are on the Euro train. 6z GFS ensembles not nearly that cold. In fact the mean of the GFS ensembles barely 32F DFW. But there are many ECMWF ensemble members as cold as the ECMWF.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3238 Postby southerngale » Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:15 am

srainhoutx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.


With rain in the forecast for the weekend and the 'coldest air of the season' expected around Tuesday, I suspect folks are wondering will they need to make some preparations prior to the foul weather. How long of duration (24/48 hours) are you thinking wxman57 regarding below freezing temps, should that senario play out?


Obviously if we're below freezing for any longer than usual (like an overnight hard freeze), then that is a big deal. But unless we see precip with the cold temps mentioned above, that's no different from what we've already seen this winter, several times. I realize I'm talking about my location (just west of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105), and you probably mean Houston proper, but I've been in the mid-20s quite a bit this winter and even the low 20s a few times. (not down TO 20 though... 22 or 23ish).

wxman57... I like your scenario that brings the cold in, but not too cold, along with the pretty snowflakes falling from the sky, on the trees and housetops, soft and thick they lie. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3239 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:17 am

southerngale wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My "best guess" is that Texas will see the coldest air of the season as Canadian/Arctic air races southward lee of the Rockies starting Sunday morning. The Canadian/Arctic air reaches the Red River around mid afternoon on Monday and the upper TX coast before sunrise Tuesday. I think that the Euro and Canadian are most likely correct with the upper air pattern, which is a very sharp upper trof across the eastern Rockies next week. This would limit (or possibly eliminate) the possibility of post-frontal precipitation across Texas.

How cold? A good guess might be low 20s in Houston, low teens in Dallas. Way too early to be very confident in temps. Could be colder, could be "warmer". Would I actually put low 20s in the forecast for our Houston clients yet? Probably not. I'd indicate mid to upper 20s for now, waiting for the weekend to see what the airmass up north looks like.


With rain in the forecast for the weekend and the 'coldest air of the season' expected around Tuesday, I suspect folks are wondering will they need to make some preparations prior to the foul weather. How long of duration (24/48 hours) are you thinking wxman57 regarding below freezing temps, should that senario play out?


Obviously if we're below freezing for any longer than usual (like an overnight hard freeze), then that is a big deal. But unless we see precip with the cold temps mentioned above, that's no different from what we've already seen this winter, several times. I realize I'm talking about my location (just west of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105), and you probably mean Houston proper, but I've been in the mid-20s quite a bit this winter and even the low 20s a few times. (not down TO 20 though... 22 or 23ish).

wxman57... I like your scenario that brings the cold in, but not too cold, along with the pretty snowflakes falling from the sky, on the trees and housetops, soft and thick they lie. :ggreen:


If ECMWF right === 23F IAH, 20F Hooks (Tomball).
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3240 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:22 am

southerngale wrote:
Obviously if we're below freezing for any longer than usual (like an overnight hard freeze), then that is a big deal. But unless we see precip with the cold temps mentioned above, that's no different from what we've already seen this winter, several times. I realize I'm talking about my location (just west of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105), and you probably mean Houston proper, but I've been in the mid-20s quite a bit this winter and even the low 20s a few times. (not down TO 20 though... 22 or 23ish).

wxman57... I like your scenario that brings the cold in, but not too cold, along with the pretty snowflakes falling from the sky, on the trees and housetops, soft and thick they lie. :ggreen:


Still many uncertainties. Keep in mind that the air in western and central Canada NOW is about 30-40 degrees colder than it was prior to the last Arctic outbreak that dropped temps along the upper TX coast to the low to mid 20s. How much of that will drop south? Don't know yet. Will have to wait until the weekend, I think, to be more sure.
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