Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Metalicwx220]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.


Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.

Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.

Thats not that far.

[Brandon8181]

18z GFS looks decent, especially for 150+ hours out. Trending colder. Unfortunately this run leaves WacoWx right on the cusp again! Looks like the system will have an impressive trowel much like the other strong storms. Vertical motion.

I'm moving to DFW in 2 weeks to avoid this problem down the road. Your avatar will no longer haunt me. But until then.....

Gotta do what you gotta do. If it never snowed here, I would consider moving to the north pole if I had to...


Gosh that is drastic. Just for snow...LOL......Goodness...

[Tireman4]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.


Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.

Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.

Thats not that far.

Did not that map say a few days ago that the southern part of Texas would have, in some parts, six inches of snow?

[BigB0882]

OK for the win on that map! Hope it has time to change and we can get some along the Gulf Coast.

[jasons2k]

18z GFS looks decent, especially for 150+ hours out. Trending colder. Unfortunately this run leaves WacoWx right on the cusp again! Looks like the system will have an impressive trowel much like the other strong storms. Vertical motion.

I'm moving to DFW in 2 weeks to avoid this problem down the road. Your avatar will no longer haunt me. But until then.....

It's never good enough, trust me. I lived many years in the DFW area....all I did was envy Lubbock, Wichita Falls, and OKC. I did something about it and went to school at Tech. And I spent those 4 winters wishing I was in Amarillo or Dalhart.........

[downsouthman1]

Upside is it does show a lot of moisture.[/quote]

Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.[/quote]
Thats not that far. [/quote]

It'd be very difficult for me to see a foot of snowpack on the ground in OK & Texas panhandle and hardly a flake accumulating south of the Red River?

[Ntxw]

Yeah I think we should hold off on these snow maps. We have no idea where the convergence zone will set up as we haven't figured out which model is best to use for temps. It could be in Kansas, it could be in Mexico...

*Or everyone in between via Canadian/JMA*

[Metalicwx220]

18z GFS looks like the same GFS so far. It's frustrating to watch it cause it just looks so meh compared to the other models. I want that cold air to push down with a vengeance.




Full fledged blizzard in the panhandle, I'd take some of that! Vortmax is definitely south. I like the shortwave look. And it's not being disturbed by any other feature, in the process of cutting off.

Thats not that far.

Did not that map say a few days ago that the southern part of Texas would have, in some parts, six inches of snow?

Yeah at 264 hours.

[TwisterFanatic]

I'll take the 18z GFS for 300, Alex.

[DentonGal]

All local DFW mets talking about cold and moisture coming through Tuesday next week.

[Ntxw]

All local DFW mets talking about cold and moisture coming through Tuesday next week.

I saw that! They seem to be going liberal with it.

[downsouthman1]

All local DFW mets talking about cold and moisture coming through Tuesday next week.

If this pattern persists, Texas will get national attention, especially in DFW due to the Super Bowl. The Weather Channel, CNN, CBS, NBC, FOX, & ABC will have people in DFW talking about the weather & Super Bowl. Don't get it twisted. The game will be played, unless roads are closed & I doubt that's what we're talking about here. Time will tell.

[Tireman4]

Flip, flop, flip, flop....tumbling exercises for all...

[Peanut432]

How reliable is the 18z GFS really though? Has the GFS been a decent medium range model?

[BigB0882]

I am not 100% but the medium range seems to be when the GFS has a lot of issues and the 18z is less reliable than the 00z and 12z. Someone more informed can correct me. However, it doesn't mean the GFS isn't on to something but I have no doubt it will change somewhat, or a lot...

[srainhoutx]

Hey folks. No need to repost images multiple times. We saw it the first time. It keeps the thread 'cleaner', so to speak.

[Turtle]

From Shreveport NWS AFD Discussion:

. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...ONLY IT WILL BE BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH COLDER AND SHOULD BRING BACK BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... BUT FOR
NOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PRECIP AREAS.

[txagwxman]

Midland afternoon discussion

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT....THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A DIGGING
NPAC LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH NEAR NV. AFTER WHICH...THE NWP MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE IT WILL END UP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A BRIEF CUTOFF LOW WITH IT AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES IT
EASTWARD OVER NM TUESDAY. THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES IT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WESTERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW
AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT (GFS). THE ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY THE COLDEST
SOLUTION...WITH RIDICULOUS 850MB TEMPS NEAR -15C OVER MAF TUESDAY.
THE GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/COLDEST SOLUTION AND
IS ALSO WET WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. WE
HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND...WE HAVE LOWER MAX TEMPS
FOR TUESDAY AS WELL CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/UPSLOPE REGIME CURRENTLY PROGGED. THE EXTENDED WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

I love how NWS uses ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UPSLOPE...which means warm advection aloft.

[txagwxman]

I am not 100% but the medium range seems to be when the GFS has a lot of issues and the 18z is less reliable than the 00z and 12z. Someone more informed can correct me. However, it doesn't mean the GFS isn't on to something but I have no doubt it will change somewhat, or a lot...

18z, 6z are barely worse than the 00z/12z GFS.

[BigB0882]

Well I just said less reliable, I wasn't trying to insinuate that the 18z is horrible and not comparable to the other runs. Thank you for those graphs!