Turtle wrote:Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.
This front will be the coldest of the season.
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Turtle wrote:Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.
txagwxman wrote:Turtle wrote:Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.
This front will be the coldest of the season.
DonWrk wrote:Nam showing 18 inches of snow in central Oklahoma. Wow
SouthernMet wrote:DonWrk wrote:Nam showing 18 inches of snow in central Oklahoma. Wow
Whats rare about it, is it's a widespread 18+..
somethingfunny wrote:APB for our cousins along the Red River: it's 70 degrees and MUGGY here in Dallas County! It hasn't felt like this since Summer. So don't bother turning on your heater, just roll on down the road!
We'll see if the cold front can slide on through, but the longer we stay like this the more concerned I become about severe weather over the next 48 hours before the big blast.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL IMPORT SUBFREEZING AIR
INTO THE NW ZONES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
METROPLEX AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR. RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE AND RAIN DROPS WILL BE VERY WARM INITIALLY
DUE TO 850 TEMPS OF 5-10C. IN ADDITION GROUND AND SURFACE OBJECT
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO COOL BELOW FREEZING.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE TEMP MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN IS
OCCURRING...BUT VERY LITTLE WILL ACTUALLY FREEZE...AT LEAST NOT
UNTIL TEMPS GET INTO THE 20S WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. HOWEVER
ONCE SURFACE TEMPS GET INTO 20S THINK THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C. THE
PRIMARY MESSAGE IS THAT WE EXPECT SLEET TO BE THE DOMINANT AND
PROBLEM WINTER PRECIP TYPE...AND IT MAY BE HEAVY ACROSS THE NW
ZONES WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2-3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 20S...WET ROADS/BRIDGES SHOULD FREEZE OVER. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE LINE. THIS REGION WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF MID 20S BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END.
JUST TO THE SE OF THE WATCH /INCLUDING THE METROPLEX/ A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ONE
NOW. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAIN WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS...BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH ICING DUE TO WARM RAIN/OBJECT TEMPS. ONCE
THE TRANSITION TO SLEET OCCURS THINK WET BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL
START TO ICE OVER. SLEET ACCUMS IN THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE 1/4 OR
LESS. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHEN THE LIFT SHUTS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS/STABILIZES THE
AIR MASS. SOME LINGERING AND WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR
AROUND MIDDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN INTERNALLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. BASICALLY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEAVES AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FLASHES OF BRINGING
THIS LOW THROUGH IN TACT FRI-SUN. MOST HAVE NOW SETTLED ON
BRINGING THIS THROUGH IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME NOW...BUT FEW ARE
VERY BULLISH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE
CHRISTMAS DEC 2004 SNOWSTORM IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODELS SHOWED
THAT LOW HAVING LITTLE MOISTURE TOO UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. EITHER
WAY WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE WHERE IT TRACKS...
AND BELIEVE IF THE 500 MB PATTERN VERIFIES LIKE THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS
SHOW...IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS.
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