Texas Winter 2010-2011

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txagwxman
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Re:

#4281 Postby txagwxman » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:25 pm

Turtle wrote:Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.

This front will be the coldest of the season.
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Re:

#4282 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:26 pm

txagwxman wrote:18z NAM going ballistic...almost unbelievable.


Image
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4283 Postby SouthernMet » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:28 pm

Winter Storm Watch hot off the press from Wichita Falls to Abilene. Maybe FWD NWS has something for us at 6
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4284 Postby WeatherKing » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:30 pm

Severe Thunderstom warning near Athens
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Re: Re:

#4285 Postby Turtle » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:31 pm

txagwxman wrote:
Turtle wrote:Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.

This front will be the coldest of the season.

Yeah, for many places. Well the low of 19 might beat the low of 20 earlier this month, but it may not either.

Anyways sorry for being a pooper scooper, I just hate to see wasted cold air. :lol:
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#4286 Postby DonWrk » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:36 pm

Nam showing 18 inches of snow in central Oklahoma. Wow
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Re:

#4287 Postby SouthernMet » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:43 pm

DonWrk wrote:Nam showing 18 inches of snow in central Oklahoma. Wow


Whats rare about it, is it's a widespread 18+.. :eek:
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Re: Re:

#4288 Postby DonWrk » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:46 pm

SouthernMet wrote:
DonWrk wrote:Nam showing 18 inches of snow in central Oklahoma. Wow


Whats rare about it, is it's a widespread 18+.. :eek:


Yep, there's been a weird feeling about this the whole time. No telling what we could be in for.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4289 Postby Brandon8181 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:50 pm

I'm not in a position to read the 18z nam I'm in Plano at babys r us with wifey what does nam say?

Thanks! Details please
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4290 Postby Shoshana » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:53 pm

somethingfunny wrote:APB for our cousins along the Red River: it's 70 degrees and MUGGY here in Dallas County! It hasn't felt like this since Summer. So don't bother turning on your heater, just roll on down the road! ;)

We'll see if the cold front can slide on through, but the longer we stay like this the more concerned I become about severe weather over the next 48 hours before the big blast.


My outdoor thermometer is reading in the 80's down here. We actually have the a/c on!

Now I'm even starting to wonder if we will see some ice... (back to my experience in Dallas of it being unusually warm before an ice storm) we're *supposed* to be in the 70's on Monday (tomorrow).
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#4291 Postby Turtle » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:02 pm

From SHV NWS:

I HAVE WORDED A RAIN...SLEET...SNOW TURNOVER/MIX IN
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AND ALTHOUGH NOT WORDED...I WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY GETTING INTO PARTS OF SW ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I30.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4292 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:04 pm

Aside from Tuesday's system, FTW has added snow forecast for Friday. This comes in line with the southern parts of the state putting up same scenarios.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
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#4293 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:05 pm

1056 MB high in montana and a blizzard no doubt, wow
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4294 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:16 pm

Lengthy discussion out of FW NWS i'd post it all but don't want to clog up the thread

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL IMPORT SUBFREEZING AIR
INTO THE NW ZONES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
METROPLEX AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR. RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE AND RAIN DROPS WILL BE VERY WARM INITIALLY
DUE TO 850 TEMPS OF 5-10C. IN ADDITION GROUND AND SURFACE OBJECT
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO COOL BELOW FREEZING.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE TEMP MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN IS
OCCURRING...BUT VERY LITTLE WILL ACTUALLY FREEZE...AT LEAST NOT
UNTIL TEMPS GET INTO THE 20S WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. HOWEVER
ONCE SURFACE TEMPS GET INTO 20S THINK THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C. THE
PRIMARY MESSAGE IS THAT WE EXPECT SLEET TO BE THE DOMINANT AND
PROBLEM WINTER PRECIP TYPE...AND IT MAY BE HEAVY ACROSS THE NW
ZONES WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2-3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE 20S...WET ROADS/BRIDGES SHOULD FREEZE OVER. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE LINE. THIS REGION WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF MID 20S BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END.
JUST TO THE SE OF THE WATCH /INCLUDING THE METROPLEX/ A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ONE
NOW. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAIN WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS...BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH ICING DUE TO WARM RAIN/OBJECT TEMPS. ONCE
THE TRANSITION TO SLEET OCCURS THINK WET BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL
START TO ICE OVER. SLEET ACCUMS IN THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE 1/4 OR
LESS. THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHEN THE LIFT SHUTS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS/STABILIZES THE
AIR MASS. SOME LINGERING AND WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR
AROUND MIDDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.



The only thing I dislike is the ground temps being too warm. Lol even if that is somewhat true it seems like everytime they say that in a forecast it never does happen.
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#4295 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:20 pm

Houston/Galveston

...COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON ON THE WAY...

SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FEATURE HAVE SEEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SOME SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THESE WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL. PRECIP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WINDS DROP OFF LATER THIS
EVENING EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. SEA FOG IS ALSO A PRETTY
GOOD BET BUT COULD BE DELAYED BY THE PRECIP COMPLEX CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE COAST.

WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON MONDAY BUT WITH LACK
OF A TRIGGER NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OTHER SOME
SPOTTY SHRA HERE AND THERE. LLJ REALLY CRANKS UP (40-50KT) MON
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION. CONSIDERING THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT (PW`S FCST
1.3" TO 1.5" - BUT PROBABLY SLIGHTLY OVERDONE) EXPECT A FAST SHOT
OF SHRA/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE APPROACHING NW PARTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUE...HWY 59 CORRIDOR BY
LUNCH...AND OFF THE GLS COAST AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 60S WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE 30S & 40S BY 6PM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING VERY COLD AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH 925 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -5C (SOUTH) TO -12C
NORTH BY SUNRISE WED. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE/WED NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE 925 NM TEMPS WON`T
MAKE IT ABOVE 0C UNTIL SAT MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS. ALSO WATCHING AN INTERESTING PATTERN
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A LARGE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CNTL US THIS WEEK WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND -
MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT WX-WISE FOR US AS THEY ARE TOO FAR NORTH.
BUT BY FRI ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES DIGS DEEP INTO NCNTL MEXICO AND
EJECTS INTO SCNTL TX FRI/FRI NIGHT. AS THIS IS OCCURRING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC. PLENTY OF
TIME TO ANALYZE THIS CONSIDERING IT`S SO FAR OUT...BUT WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION 20% CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS NRN PARTS FRI
AFTN/NIGHT CONSIDERING FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. 47
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4296 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:20 pm

More importantly, last part of their forecast discussion :wink:.

FW
FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN INTERNALLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. BASICALLY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEAVES AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FLASHES OF BRINGING
THIS LOW THROUGH IN TACT FRI-SUN. MOST HAVE NOW SETTLED ON
BRINGING THIS THROUGH IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME NOW...BUT FEW ARE
VERY BULLISH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE
CHRISTMAS DEC 2004 SNOWSTORM IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODELS SHOWED
THAT LOW HAVING LITTLE MOISTURE TOO UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. EITHER
WAY WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE WHERE IT TRACKS...
AND BELIEVE IF THE 500 MB PATTERN VERIFIES LIKE THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS
SHOW...IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4297 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:27 pm

The only thing I dislike is the ground temps being too warm. Lol even if that is somewhat true it seems like everytime they say that in a forecast it never does happen.[/quote]

The same thing was said before the 09' storm with temps in the high 60's for 4 days before that event. Well we all know how that one turned out and this system is even colder. The precip towards the end of this event (which should be sleet/some snow) should have no problems sticking to most everything.


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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4298 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:34 pm

From past experience, it doesn't matter how warm the ground has been, if it is in the upper 20s it's going to stick like glue. Even when it's been in the 20s-30s all week, if it snows/sleet in the 32-35 range it has a hard time sticking anyway even if it was cold before (last year late Dec snow was about 34 and snow was melting ontop of the snow we already had on the ground lol). So the ground has been to warm is kind of a common sense thing (Doesn't stick until it gets below freezing lol). This is mostly true for the grassy areas and elevated surfaces.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4299 Postby Peanut432 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:09 pm

Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?
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#4300 Postby benrayrog » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:25 pm

Ron Jackson on Fox 4 in Dallas predicts a high of 25 on Wednesday.
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