Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DentonGal]

Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?

Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?

Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?

Particularly Dangerous Situation. Its more common in severe watches than winter weather...although its really not common at all. I dont think ive ever seen a PDS winter storm warning before.

[downsouthman1]

Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?

Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?

Particularly Dangerous Situation. Its more common in severe watches than winter weather...although its really not common at all. I dont think ive ever seen a PDS winter storm warning before.

I also don't believe I've ever seen a PDS for a Winter Storm. Normally, they're issued in conjunction with a Tornado Watch, considered a high risk area.

[orangeblood]

Today's NAM runs seem to have some initialization errors - hopefully it corrects itself by tonight's run. Found this excerpt from the HPC model diagnostic discussion this afternoon regarding the NAM (HPC is siding with the GFS/European for now):

THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY...
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50
NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS
SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF HAS
TRENDED SLOWER ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE OH VALLEY...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION. THUS...EARLIER PREFERENCES REMAIN
INTACT...WITH AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED DAYS
1/2...BEFORE ABANDONING THE ECMWF IN FAVOR A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR DAY
3.

[Metalicwx220]

Here is the 18z gfs for southeastern texas.

[kb75007]

So whats the latest with us just north of Dallas for tuesday? I see that parts of Oklahoma are under winter storm watches and warnings. Is there a chance they are going to issue a watch or warning for us?

[Ntxw]

So whats the latest with us just north of Dallas for tuesday? I see that parts of Oklahoma are under winter storm watches and warnings. Is there a chance they are going to issue a watch or warning for us?

NWS for Dallas. Looks pretty good the way things are standing.


Tuesday: Rain or freezing rain before noon, then a slight chance of snow and sleet. Temperature falling to around 22 by 5pm. Wind chill values between 4 and 14. Windy, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Roughly the same throughout the metroplex. A bit sooner for the NW a bit later for the SE. Mentioned a possible winter weather advisory for the metro counties but too early for that.

[Portastorm]

There's snow and sleet and freezing rain in the official NWS forecast for Austin, some four days out. That usually means it won't happen!

[Ntxw]

There's snow and sleet and freezing rain in the official NWS forecast for Austin, some four days out. That usually means it won't happen!

Don't believe it Portastorm! If they can giveth, they will taketh! It's going to be a tough call. If moist air comes up from the gulf, temps will likely be warm (of course not good for wintry precip). But if it doesn't, the air mass is extremely dry. I'd rather see Pacific moisture from an SJT ride up vs the gulf. Better overrunning.

[Portastorm]

There's snow and sleet and freezing rain in the official NWS forecast for Austin, some four days out. That usually means it won't happen!

Don't believe it Portastorm! If they can giveth, they will taketh! It's going to be a tough call. If moist air comes up from the gulf, temps will likely be warm (of course not good for wintry precip). But if it doesn't, the air mass is extremely dry. I'd rather see Pacific moisture from an SJT ride up vs the gulf. Better overrunning.

I concur. A nice southwesterly flow with the southern jet and we can get a nice and large area of overrunning light precip which would last a while. Winter fun for everyone, I say!

Trust me ... while it's nice to see those winter words in the forecast, I know too well that things can and will change. But besides the cold, I'm certain that we in those forum will have A LOT of weather to follow this week. Gonna be fun!

[Night on the Sun]

With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!

[HockeyTx82]

With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!

I found this on my own, it helped me a little bit. Perhaps someone else has something better.

http://coastguardwx.com/basicwx.html

[southerngale]

I'm not in a position to read the 18z nam I'm in Plano at babys r us with wifey what does nam say?

Thanks! Details please

LOL! I remember last year, ROCK asking if it was bad that he was checking model runs (hurricane season) while in church.
Weather nerds rule.

Btw, while it got quite toasty in parts of Texas, I only briefly got up to 65°. I guess the rain and clouds kept the temps down.

I've been busy all weekend and just read 12 pages to catch up. So.... it's gonna get cold. I just want snow!

[Ntxw]

With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!

I don't know how useful this is but it's a bit informative and easy to understand with pictures!

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/01/weather-101-how-to-read-computer-model.html

[Portastorm]

With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!

Here's another option for you:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!

Here's another option for you:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/

Weather prediction has taught so much about reading the models.

[benrayrog]

Steve McCauley on WFAA in Dallas and the guy on CBS 11 in Dallas both said the precipitation should be pulling out of the metroplex by 10 a.m. Tuesday.

[gboudx]

From jeff this evening. Our SETX snowbirds should start honking.

A wild week is in store for the area....with multipe weather concerns.

Major arctic air outbreak will arrive Tuesday with a very cold air mass...temperatures will be the coldest of the winter season so far.

Models now in fair agreement on a potential winter storm event for coastal TX Thursday and Friday.

Arctic Outbreak:
Powerful arctic cold front is roaring down the plains this evening with 1050mb arctic high building over Canada NW of Montana ridging into the central plains. Strong arctic boundary will arrive into SE TX early Tuesday morning and push off the coast by mid afternoon. After highs in the 70's on Monday...it is downhill fast from that point as a bitter cold air mass invades from the north. Expect temperatures to fall from the 60's Tuesday morning into the 30's by mid afternoon with the freezing line reaching I-10 by early evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary will end by early afternoon prior to the onset of freezing temperatures. Some residual moisture on overpasses could freeze by mid evening mainly N of HWY 105 as temperatures fall into the upper 20's. Very strong NW winds of 15-25mph will drive wind chills into the low teens and single digits across the region by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance shows little warming on Wednesday or Thursday and some lcoations may not reach freezing.

Large arctic dome locks in place across the state Wed-Sat with very cold air mass slow to modify. Expect hard freezes each night and daytime temperatures to struggle to only reach the mid to upper 30's if that.

Winter Storm Potential:
As hinted at a few times over the past few days has been the threat for energy to hang back to the SW of TX and attempt to eject moisture into the arctic air mass. Models had trended toward a much drier post frontal air mass, until the last two runs 00Z last night and 12Z this morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF have come in much wetter as an upper low develops in the base of the mean trough and ejects toward SW TX Thursday night/Friday. Models now prog isentropic lift over the cold air mass with widespread development of precipitation. Cold arctic air mass will be deeply entrenched across the entire state with the vertical column below freezing from the surface upward. Will go with P-type of mainly SN (snow) although some locations could see IP (sleet) for all locations including the coastal locations, the coastal bend, and parts of S TX.

Way too soon to start talking any kind of accumulations as there are some questions as to moisture amounts, but you do not need a lot of moisture to produce snow. If current model runs were to pan out, we could be looking at some pretty decent totals with little melting on the frozen ground from hours below freezing prior to the onset of the event.

As an aside the upper air pattern looks similar to the historic Christmas Eve snowstorm of 2004, but with a colder air mass and more entrenched arctic high. This fact alone gives me some concern as to question the potential amounts of moisture avialable as this air mass may be too cold to support much moisture.

Preparations:
Residents across the region should use Monday to prepare for an extended period of very cold temperatures. Tropical vegetation should be covered and protected along with exposed outside pipes and sprinkler systems. Given an extended period of wind chills in the teens and single digits preparations for exposed livestock should be made.

Toward the end fo the week the threat could transition toward significant travel impacts should a winter storm event verify

[Peanut432]

Amarillo AFD says possibly the coldest early February max high temps in 118 year. What is the McFarland signature?

Where does one go to find the weather record for a place like Amarillo?

[HockeyTx82]

Amarillo AFD says possibly the coldest early February max high temps in 118 year. What is the McFarland signature?

Where does one go to find the weather record for a place like Amarillo?

Did a quick Google search and found this page.

http://coolweather.net/statetemperature ... rature.htm

Hope that helps.