Peanut432 wrote:Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?
Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?
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Peanut432 wrote:Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?
DentonGal wrote:Peanut432 wrote:Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?
Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?
cheezyWXguy wrote:DentonGal wrote:Peanut432 wrote:Wow NWS issued a PDS winter storm warning for central Oklahoma. Has anyone ever heard of this before?
Potentially Dangerous Storm? Is that what you're asking?
Particularly Dangerous Situation. Its more common in severe watches than winter weather...although its really not common at all. I dont think ive ever seen a PDS winter storm warning before.
THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY...
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50
NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS
SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF HAS
TRENDED SLOWER ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE OH VALLEY...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION. THUS...EARLIER PREFERENCES REMAIN
INTACT...WITH AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED DAYS
1/2...BEFORE ABANDONING THE ECMWF IN FAVOR A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR DAY
3.
kb75007 wrote:So whats the latest with us just north of Dallas for tuesday? I see that parts of Oklahoma are under winter storm watches and warnings. Is there a chance they are going to issue a watch or warning for us?
Portastorm wrote:There's snow and sleet and freezing rain in the official NWS forecast for Austin, some four days out. That usually means it won't happen!
Ntxw wrote:Portastorm wrote:There's snow and sleet and freezing rain in the official NWS forecast for Austin, some four days out. That usually means it won't happen!
Don't believe it Portastorm! If they can giveth, they will taketh! It's going to be a tough call. If moist air comes up from the gulf, temps will likely be warm (of course not good for wintry precip). But if it doesn't, the air mass is extremely dry. I'd rather see Pacific moisture from an SJT ride up vs the gulf. Better overrunning.
Night on the Sun wrote:With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!
Brandon8181 wrote:I'm not in a position to read the 18z nam I'm in Plano at babys r us with wifey what does nam say?
Thanks! Details please
Night on the Sun wrote:With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!
Night on the Sun wrote:With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!
Portastorm wrote:Night on the Sun wrote:With all of the weather models and data available on line, is there any one book you would recommend to help you read the models (for example, a book that would describe that if you are looking at a thickness chart, the 540 line generally divides the rain/snow, etc.)? I'm trying to educate myself in weather forecasting (prediction), and this winter is proving to be confusing and very challenging. Thanks!
Here's another option for you:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/
A wild week is in store for the area....with multipe weather concerns.
Major arctic air outbreak will arrive Tuesday with a very cold air mass...temperatures will be the coldest of the winter season so far.
Models now in fair agreement on a potential winter storm event for coastal TX Thursday and Friday.
Arctic Outbreak:
Powerful arctic cold front is roaring down the plains this evening with 1050mb arctic high building over Canada NW of Montana ridging into the central plains. Strong arctic boundary will arrive into SE TX early Tuesday morning and push off the coast by mid afternoon. After highs in the 70's on Monday...it is downhill fast from that point as a bitter cold air mass invades from the north. Expect temperatures to fall from the 60's Tuesday morning into the 30's by mid afternoon with the freezing line reaching I-10 by early evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary will end by early afternoon prior to the onset of freezing temperatures. Some residual moisture on overpasses could freeze by mid evening mainly N of HWY 105 as temperatures fall into the upper 20's. Very strong NW winds of 15-25mph will drive wind chills into the low teens and single digits across the region by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance shows little warming on Wednesday or Thursday and some lcoations may not reach freezing.
Large arctic dome locks in place across the state Wed-Sat with very cold air mass slow to modify. Expect hard freezes each night and daytime temperatures to struggle to only reach the mid to upper 30's if that.
Winter Storm Potential:
As hinted at a few times over the past few days has been the threat for energy to hang back to the SW of TX and attempt to eject moisture into the arctic air mass. Models had trended toward a much drier post frontal air mass, until the last two runs 00Z last night and 12Z this morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF have come in much wetter as an upper low develops in the base of the mean trough and ejects toward SW TX Thursday night/Friday. Models now prog isentropic lift over the cold air mass with widespread development of precipitation. Cold arctic air mass will be deeply entrenched across the entire state with the vertical column below freezing from the surface upward. Will go with P-type of mainly SN (snow) although some locations could see IP (sleet) for all locations including the coastal locations, the coastal bend, and parts of S TX.
Way too soon to start talking any kind of accumulations as there are some questions as to moisture amounts, but you do not need a lot of moisture to produce snow. If current model runs were to pan out, we could be looking at some pretty decent totals with little melting on the frozen ground from hours below freezing prior to the onset of the event.
As an aside the upper air pattern looks similar to the historic Christmas Eve snowstorm of 2004, but with a colder air mass and more entrenched arctic high. This fact alone gives me some concern as to question the potential amounts of moisture avialable as this air mass may be too cold to support much moisture.
Preparations:
Residents across the region should use Monday to prepare for an extended period of very cold temperatures. Tropical vegetation should be covered and protected along with exposed outside pipes and sprinkler systems. Given an extended period of wind chills in the teens and single digits preparations for exposed livestock should be made.
Toward the end fo the week the threat could transition toward significant travel impacts should a winter storm event verify
Peanut432 wrote:Amarillo AFD says possibly the coldest early February max high temps in 118 year. What is the McFarland signature?
Where does one go to find the weather record for a place like Amarillo?
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