Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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bktkckak
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Re:

#5901 Postby bktkckak » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:28 pm

Turtle wrote:*EDIT* Someone already posted the SHV discussion.

Hope to be in some kind of winter watch. I haven't even gotten WWA. :grrr:

Don't worry, you'll be hiding in your shell before all is said and done! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5902 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:29 pm

It's coming for you Portastorm! At last!!! Fluffy snows! FW has a good discussion on that. HGX will probably get the wetter snow good for snow balls and snowmen.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THIS UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASING
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING
APPEARS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE EASY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ENTIRELY SUB-FREEZING...
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROF AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS MODERATELY HIGH...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AMONG
SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE WRF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OF FLUFFY
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE METROPLEX.
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS THAT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA...SO WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOMETIME TOMORROW.

TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO
THAW OUT FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE AS COLD NEXT WEEK AS
IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 20S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO EVENING WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT BEST MOISTURE AND
HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW. THE ECMWF HANGS ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE ECMWF...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR MORE SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

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txtiff
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Re: Re:

#5903 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:32 pm

setxwxgurl wrote:
southerngale wrote:Users browsing this forum: AggieSpirit, Agua, andyis, Anthony, bella_may, bevolon, Big O, BigB0882, branden, CajunMama, Cuda17, CYCLONE MIKE, DonWrk, downsouthman1, Ellsey, gpsnowman, HockeyTx82, Hook'em Horns!, iorange55, Ivanhater, kdawgfm, Lane, Mattie, Mr. Weather, MSN [Bot], orangeblood, Outlaw JW, PineyWoods, PTrackerLA, sensoria, southerngale, srainhoutx, Stormcenter, SunnyThoughts, TeamPlayersBlue, Texas Snowman, TideJoe, TigerCraig, timmeister, txtiff, WacoWx, WxSLP and 163 guests

I know some of you are members who aren't logged in, but there are a lot of guests viewing. Don't be shy! Join Storm2k and join in the conversation. :)


Coming to your live from Orange, TX!!!! :cold: Brrr..its cold outside


Oh WOW I have a sister that lives down in Orange!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5904 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:32 pm

Meh ... things could still change for the worse. We still have 24 hours before the onset of precipitation. But for the record, my kicking cleats are on and I'm lined up to kick the football. Will Lucy show up tomorrow? :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5905 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:34 pm

Portastorm wrote:Meh ... things could still change for the worse. We still have 24 hours before the onset of precipitation. But for the record, my kicking cleats are on and I'm lined up to kick the football. Will Lucy show up tomorrow? :wink:


Portastorm, I get the feeling Lucy will be too busy in Killeen to have time to visit you in Austin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5906 Postby benrayrog » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's coming for you Portastorm! At last!!! Fluffy snows! FW has a good discussion on that. HGX will probably get the wetter snow good for snow balls and snowmen.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THIS UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASING
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING
APPEARS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE EASY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ENTIRELY SUB-FREEZING...
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROF AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS MODERATELY HIGH...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AMONG
SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE WRF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OF FLUFFY
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE METROPLEX.
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS THAT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA...SO WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOMETIME TOMORROW.

TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO
THAW OUT FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
ON MONDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE AS COLD NEXT WEEK AS
IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 20S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN INTO EVENING WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT BEST MOISTURE AND
HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW. THE ECMWF HANGS ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE ECMWF...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR MORE SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.




Sounds like more to come!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5907 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:36 pm

What is Lucy, again?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5908 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:37 pm

Just reading over the last few pages and I see alot of talk of snow again even for the dfw area. When will this reach the dfw area? I am just east of dallas county and how much do you think we will get........anybody??
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5909 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:37 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:What is Lucy, again?


LMAO. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5910 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:38 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:What is Lucy, again?


Lucy is the personification of having winter weather promised to you, either by a computer model, or a known weather organization ... and then, just when you get your hopes up and excited ... it doesn't happen. Just like when Charlie Brown tries to kick the football and Lucy snatches it away at the last second. See my avatar. I have been using the analogy for years here ... probably much to the dismay of my fellow S2Kers. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5911 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:39 pm

txtiff wrote:Just reading over the last few pages and I see alot of talk of snow again even for the dfw area. When will this reach the dfw area? I am just east of dallas county and how much do you think we will get........anybody??



Tomorrow night into Friday. Since you're a little east I'd say maybe 2 inches for your area. Could be higher.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5912 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:40 pm

iorange55 wrote:
txtiff wrote:Just reading over the last few pages and I see alot of talk of snow again even for the dfw area. When will this reach the dfw area? I am just east of dallas county and how much do you think we will get........anybody??



Tomorrow night into Friday. Since you're a little east I'd say maybe 2 inches for your area. Could be higher.


Thank you. I thought the temps were going to be above freezing by then???
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5913 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:What is Lucy, again?


Lucy is the personification of having winter weather promised to you, either by a computer model, or a known weather organization ... and then, just when you get your hopes up and excited ... it doesn't happen. Just like when Charlie Brown tries to kick the football and Lucy snatches it away at the last second. See my avatar. I have been using the analogy for years here ... probably much to the dismay of my fellow S2Kers. :lol:


HAHAHAHA! That's hysterical! And something I'm oh so familiar with. Our plight is similar, Portastorm!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5914 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:41 pm

iorange55 wrote:Tomorrow night into Friday. Since you're a little east I'd say maybe 2 inches for your area. Could be higher.


I'm starting to get confused. I think FW is going for snow Monday? Brief cold shot with light snow then using Euro for Weds with the bigger storm. Where is their conservatism?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5915 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:41 pm

iorange55 wrote:
txtiff wrote:Just reading over the last few pages and I see alot of talk of snow again even for the dfw area. When will this reach the dfw area? I am just east of dallas county and how much do you think we will get........anybody??



Tomorrow night into Friday. Since you're a little east I'd say maybe 2 inches for your area. Could be higher.


You think Denton is to far north for anything this time around? It sounds like next week has some potential from that AFD.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5916 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:42 pm

txtiff wrote:Thank you. I thought the temps were going to be above freezing by then???


NWS has a high of 32 for Friday, and it could be a tad cooler than that. Most of the precip will be in the morning around here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5917 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:43 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:You think Denton is to far north for anything this time around? It sounds like next week has some potential from that AFD.



The 18z NAM had precip all the way into Oklahoma. I'd say you might get some, just not as much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5918 Postby Metalicwx220 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:44 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:What is Lucy, again?


Lucy is the personification of having winter weather promised to you, either by a computer model, or a known weather organization ... and then, just when you get your hopes up and excited ... it doesn't happen. Just like when Charlie Brown tries to kick the football and Lucy snatches it away at the last second. See my avatar. I have been using the analogy for years here ... probably much to the dismay of my fellow S2Kers. :lol:


HAHAHAHA! That's hysterical! And something I'm oh so familiar with. Our plight is similar, Portastorm!

LOL XD I thought that was a real person HEHE
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5919 Postby txtiff » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:44 pm

iorange55 wrote:
txtiff wrote:Thank you. I thought the temps were going to be above freezing by then???


NWS has a high of 32 for Friday, and it could be a tad cooler than that. Most of the precip will be in the morning around here.


Okay thank you. Kids are still out of school. My husband works for the light company here and has been dealing with the rolling black outs today. Guess the kids will be home the rest of this week with the new snow coming our way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5920 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'm starting to get confused. I think FW is going for snow Monday? Brief cold shot with light snow then using Euro for Weds with the bigger storm. Where is their conservatism?!



Rules are out the window now! It is weird for them to be so forward with everything.
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