Texas Winter 2010-2011

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DentonGal
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7501 Postby DentonGal » Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:30 pm

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:Winter Storm Watch has been posted for much of Oklahoma...this is for the storm Tuesday into Wednesday!!

I'd have more 'warm fuzzies' if it was extended all the way to the Red River.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7502 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:35 pm

DentonGal wrote:I'd have more 'warm fuzzies' if it was extended all the way to the Red River.


My bet is they will at least by tomorrow night. Oklahoma will be effected earlier hence the watches go up first. 36-48 hours lead time is usually when to hoist watches I think.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7503 Postby DentonGal » Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:51 pm

Ntxw wrote:
DentonGal wrote:I'd have more 'warm fuzzies' if it was extended all the way to the Red River.


My bet is they will at least by tomorrow night. Oklahoma will be effected earlier hence the watches go up first. 36-48 hours lead time is usually when to hoist watches I think.

Ahhhh....good info to know! Thanx!
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#7504 Postby Cav0 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:36 pm

Meanwhile, its snowing again in Abilene

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Re:

#7505 Postby DentonGal » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:05 pm

Cav0 wrote:Meanwhile, its snowing again in Abilene

Image

Lucky!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7506 Postby Turtle » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:10 pm

Image
I thought NE TX would have a better chance at snow than North Central TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7507 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:21 pm

Turtle wrote:Image
I thought NE TX would have a better chance at snow than North Central TX.


That's where the best moisture will be.. Snowfall accumulations will all depend on the timing of the cold front
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7508 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:24 pm

Why is it snowing in Abilene while it rains in Vernon and Wichita Falls? Is it some cold patch, caused by the ULL or something? Would it translate east?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7509 Postby iorange55 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:41 pm

NAM is still pounding Northeast Oklahoma. I find it hard to believe we'd be so short of moisture, though. Think it has the wrong idea.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7510 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:47 pm

iorange55 wrote:NAM is still pounding Northeast Oklahoma. I find it hard to believe we'd be so short of moisture, though. Think it has the wrong idea.


Yep, NAM adamant about it being an Oklahoma/Arkansas ordeal. The 1 inch line comes to a halt at the Red River.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7511 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:57 pm

When I look at the most recent WV loop, I'm concerned about the depth of the base of the trough. It doesn't seem far enough south for this to be a huge TX storm. That is, of course, unless the ULL itself pushes the base of the trough further south like our last ULL did, but that was a special, rare breed of ULL.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html
Last edited by downsouthman1 on Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7512 Postby wall_cloud » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:57 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Why is it snowing in Abilene while it rains in Vernon and Wichita Falls? Is it some cold patch, caused by the ULL or something? Would it translate east?


could be a number of things.

1. dyanamic cooling (cold pool aloft) as stronger farther south closer to the path of the h7 low.
2. its 9 degrees cooler at the surface.
3. elevation - not significant difference but Abilene is ~300 ft higher.
4. Wichita Falls could be located in the trowal instead of the cold core...
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7513 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:03 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Why is it snowing in Abilene while it rains in Vernon and Wichita Falls? Is it some cold patch, caused by the ULL or something? Would it translate east?


Elevation... Abilene is about 600ft higher than Wichita Falls and that should be enough to cause rain vs. snow
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#7514 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:09 pm

Abilene was also under very high reflectivity band of precip. Cooling of the column also probably.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7515 Postby funster » Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:22 pm

An area of snow continues south of the rain as the precip moves east. Odd.

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... img=22&c=y
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7516 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:24 pm

Jerry's anti-weather machine worked! Seems the precip died out or made a hole over Arlington lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7517 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Jerry's anti-weather machine worked! Seems the precip died out or made a hole over Arlington lol


Yeah but you know our DFW Ice Hell Week had to have scared the Armani pants off of the NFL executives. Imagine that storm and deep freeze hitting on Sunday morning instead of Tuesday morning. :eek:

So it's not looking too likely that the Abilene snow patch will scoot east to us, is it? We haven't had much precip here yet and I feel like it's still too warm....if we can get heavy reflectivity over us though, we could wake up to another blanket of white.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7518 Postby iorange55 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:05 pm

I like the 0z GFS

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7519 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:06 pm

Mr No says YES! Amg. Good start, hopefully the NAM is on crack and we can trend wetter for Canadian/Euro/UKMET. 12ish hours of snow on the GFS for DFW.
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#7520 Postby Turtle » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:09 pm

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:
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