Texas Winter 2010-2011

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txagwxman
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#8641 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:34 pm

Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

:double:
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Re:

#8642 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:38 pm

txagwxman wrote:Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

:double:


No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!
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Re: Re:

#8643 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:40 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
txagwxman wrote:Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

:double:


No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!


That's a Pro Met. Show some respect! :)
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Re:

#8644 Postby BlueNorther » Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:54 pm

txagwxman wrote:Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

:double:

A number of ensemble members are hinting at a return to a cold pattern the last week of Feb and the first week of March; at least it looks that way to me. :froze:
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Re: Re:

#8645 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:01 pm

BigB0882 wrote:No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!


It's really hard to give details this far out, and the Op's are up and down with it, but the overall hints have been a resurgence of some winter. Whether this remains mostly in the northern tier or breaks loose and takes no prisoners is yet to be seen. Just know that with the kind of winter we are having, you shouldn't expect anything less than surprises :wink:. These warmers temps should be giving way some at the end of the month.
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Re: Re:

#8646 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!


It's really hard to give details this far out, and the Op's are up and down with it, but the overall hints have been a resurgence of some winter. Whether this remains mostly in the northern tier or breaks loose and takes no prisoners is yet to be seen. Just know that with the kind of winter we are having, you shouldn't expect anything less than surprises :wink:.


Agreed. Not to mention the fact that Winter has rarely been over on Feb 15th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8647 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:09 pm

Here is a comparison of what the 500mb anomalies are now from the 12z GFS and what they could become later in the month.

Currently-ish
Image

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240-ish
Image

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Euro 12z Ensembles
Image

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What is shown by the ensembles is that the SE ridge gives way to the plunging south of colder air into the North American continent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8648 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:Here is a comparison of what the 500mb anomalies are now from the 12z GFS and what they could become later in the month.

Currently-ish
[url=http://img23.imageshack.us/i/12zgfsensembles500mbhei.gif/[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

240-ish
[url=http://img517.imageshack.us/i/12zgfsensembles500mbhei.gif/[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Euro 12z Ensembles
[url=http://img34.imageshack.us/i/12zecmwfens500mbheighta.gif/[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

What is shown by the ensembles is that the SE ridge gives way to the plunging south of colder air into the North American continent.


Though it's impossible to accurately say at this point, it is quite plausible that it will get cold again this winter. That is based on the fact that we normally have our last really cold spell sometime in February or March.

And those models certainly add weight to the lure.
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#8649 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:52 am

This is really unscientific, but keep an eye on the trees. I'm worried a lot of them will start budding now with the higher sun angle and warm temperatures, only to open themselves up to damage from another hard freeze.

Trees are smart critters though, two years ago in early-mid March I noticed budding and flowering in Garland while the trees in Denison only 60 miles north where I lived at the time were completely barren still. I commented at the time that the trees seemed to know something up along the Red River. Sure enough, the last week of March brought a major snowstorm to the I-40 corridor and about an inch for Grayson County, while DFW just saw rain. The DFW trees knew winter was over, but the Texoma trees knew one last threat was coming.

Then again, none of my trees here in Garland saw the 6" dump coming on Spring Equinox 2010. All of our trees ended up with half-deformed leaves this summer because of it. I hope that doesn't happen again this year. (The early budding that is)

Maybe it's because they're city trees. :roll:

They're starting to show little brown nubs, but no green yet. We'll see in a few weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8650 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:56 am

Portastorm wrote:I don't believe you can separate certain teleconnections and say some played a role and some didn't. They all had their roles to play, some bigger than others. I think the AO/NAO played a huge role along with the others. If the NAO wasn't negative, we would have had a persistent Southeast ridge much of the winter which would have precluded a southern storm track. And that retrograding negative NAO trough combined with a deeply negative AO helped plunge a lot of cold air due south into the central and southern Plains.

The PNA also played a big role with its positive phase and sharp West Coast ridging, helping to bring that polar air south.

Seem a lot of references also to minimal solar activity which may have played a role.

Methinks there's going to be a lot of learning going on with meteorologists after this season and it is clear that one cannot just take a Nina or Nino and broadbrush a seasonal forecast.


The sun is quiet no more. Aurora Watch issued as Sun Spot 1158 spit out a impressive series of coronal mass ejections expected to impact Earth in the next 24-48 hours. Perhaps another SSW event is in the offing aided by this eruption... :wink:

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http://spaceweather.com/
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8651 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:53 am

Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8652 Postby txagwxman » Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.

I have no clue...sometimes it takes several weeks for the stratospheric warming to propagate down and effect the AO...sometimes less.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8653 Postby jerryh421 » Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:14 pm

txagwxman wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.

I have no clue...sometimes it takes several weeks for the stratospheric warming to propagate down and effect the AO...sometimes less.


This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8654 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:51 pm

jerryh421 wrote:This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?


Jerry ... not a dumb question at all. Stratospheric warming events tend to add to the potential for cold air outbreaks in the lower 48. But my knowledge of this stuff is very rough and I'm sure others here know more.

Wikipedia has some info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8655 Postby jerryh421 » Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:05 pm

Portastorm wrote:
jerryh421 wrote:This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?


Jerry ... not a dumb question at all. Stratospheric warming events tend to add to the potential for cold air outbreaks in the lower 48. But my knowledge of this stuff is very rough and I'm sure others here know more.

Wikipedia has some info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming


Okay thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8656 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:13 pm

And right on cue the 12z Euro brings down a healthy cold front around Feb. 26.

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#8657 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:20 pm

Ahhhh yes, a healthy cold front. And not two weeks out either. I know 10 days is not close either, but it's a start for one more round before winter ends. Let the model watching begin! A late surprise is not out of the question for Texas. Has happened many times.
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#8658 Postby txagwxman » Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:20 pm

Yep...probably get some freezing drizzle Abilene.

But the GFS ensembles say it won't last at all.

ECMWF shows no stratospheric warming ( I looked at the 50 mb anomaly plots).
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8659 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:14 pm

12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8660 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...


Amarillo Wxman! A week ago they were way colder than you below 0 and now they are warmer!!! Funny how weather works :lol:

Current Amarillo weather: Fair and Breezy 80 °F(27 °C)
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