Global model runs discussion

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GCANE
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Re: Global Model Runs Thread

#2041 Postby GCANE » Thu May 26, 2011 7:09 am

Mid Carib week of Memorial Day looks interesting.

Water vapor has been building consistently for the last couple weeks in the mid Carib.

Convection has been persistent over northern part of South America which has developed an anti-cyclone.

Shear could be clearing out south of Jamaica in about 144 hrs

GFS and CMC slightly hinting on a LL vorticity.

FIM forecasting good latent heat flux around Monday which could develop and move the anti-cyclone north into the water.

Based on 320K PV forecast and troughs ejecting into the Atlantic from CONUS, there most likely will be a TUTT near 35N 35W.

One is currently positioned at 30N 50W as shown in the UL wind map below.

This could aid in developing a poleward outflow channel.

Just something to keep an eye on.



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Re: Global Model Runs Thread

#2042 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu May 26, 2011 8:55 am

HPC indicates troughing in the Caribbean.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2043 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2011 11:57 am

GFS continues to show a low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean.This is under 200 hours,so let's see if other models show this scenario. Also the EPAC gets busy on this run.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2044 Postby GCANE » Thu May 26, 2011 1:08 pm

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2045 Postby ronjon » Thu May 26, 2011 3:28 pm

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2046 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2011 3:55 pm

At least,more than one model are with the Western Caribbean scenario.ECMWF is also with it.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2047 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 26, 2011 5:39 pm

Yep..No longer long range. Eyes will likely turn toward the Caribbean next week. Props to the GFS if this turns out, other models now starting to see this now

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2048 Postby Comanche » Thu May 26, 2011 11:08 pm

Joe B has mentioned this a week or two ago, if it turns out, MAJOR props to him for seeing the pattern potential before the models.
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#2049 Postby Rgv20 » Thu May 26, 2011 11:50 pm

Nogaps being aggressive with the Caribbean development. The map is the forecast for Tuesday at 7pm.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2050 Postby Migle » Fri May 27, 2011 1:48 am

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Arlene in 2005 form in that exact location right around the very start of the season? Kind of freaky.
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#2051 Postby crownweather » Fri May 27, 2011 3:59 am

Arlene developed on June 8th of 2005 and tracked northward out of the western Caribbean. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2052 Postby ronjon » Fri May 27, 2011 6:38 am

Pretty good model consensus for low pressure forming in the SW caribbean in the next 5-6 days. The Euro, CMC, NOGAPs, GFS, and ECM ensemble models all show development now - so far, not much movement predicted by the models. May be a very broad, sluggish, slow developing system that takes time to organize which I think would be typical for this time of year.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2053 Postby Macrocane » Fri May 27, 2011 7:26 am

:uarrow: Yep, it seems to me that it could be from a monsoonal origin, like Nicole last year though in a much less complex pattern.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2054 Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 27, 2011 7:42 am

Macrocane wrote::uarrow: Yep, it seems to me that it could be from a monsoonal origin, like Nicole last year though in a much less complex pattern.


It does look somewhat similar to a monsoonal trough setup of last year. Will somthing spin up in that region? We will see.
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#2055 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 27, 2011 7:56 am

I suggest this spin out into its own thread since it has model support and is within a week now.
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Re:

#2056 Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 27, 2011 8:05 am

RL3AO wrote:I suggest this spin out into its own thread since it has model support and is within a week now.

Actually we had this very issue last year and Staff has addressed it. Discussions probably should remain here as we are still in the medium range and see no well orginized system via models. :wink:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2057 Postby floridasun78 » Fri May 27, 2011 10:08 am

i look at sat pic of carribbean their not much storms any area carribbean could models been gaving us ghost storms? like we seen done before
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2058 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 27, 2011 10:11 am

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2059 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 27, 2011 11:02 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Macrocane wrote::uarrow: Yep, it seems to me that it could be from a monsoonal origin, like Nicole last year though in a much less complex pattern.


It does look somewhat similar to a monsoonal trough setup of last year. Will somthing spin up in that region? We will see.


I know in more active seasons like 2005 and 2010, there is a monsoonal trough in the Caribbean.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2060 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 27, 2011 11:03 am

Migle wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Arlene in 2005 form in that exact location right around the very start of the season? Kind of freaky.


Yes, in the general location, but formed later on June 8, 2005.
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