#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 30, 2011 9:08 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
117.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DEVELOPING OVER A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. A 301357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
15-20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK AND 15 KNOT
SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD LLCC WITH 5-10 KNOT
WINDS AT THE CENTER. WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A 301749Z
AMSRE PASS, WHICH ALSO SHOWS DRY COLD AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OVER HAINAN, IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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