Global model runs discussion

[Javlin]

I can always dream there, Mike but seriously I see nothing out there now that would seem worthy of that development. The local met even brought this action up on the News last night as we are all hoping for a break in this drought.

[Ivanhater]

Here we go again...12z GFS showing a 1003mb system and very heavy rain spreading along the entire Gulf coast
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[BigB0882]

We all want some rain but I don't want another Allison.

[tailgater]

Here we go again...12z GFS showing a 1003mb system and very heavy rain spreading along the entire Gulf coast
I sure hope that forecast comes true, we are parched!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Its all well and good at what the gfs is showing. Sure hoping it comes to fruition but not holding my breath, especially after the terrible performance it had last year. These models are about as accurate as my cities 7 day forecast. So hears hoping for some good tropical rains and the models can show it every day as they wish, but wont believe it until I actually see some kind of disturbance in the gulf.

[Rainband]

gfs lol

[Rgv20]

Here we go 12zECMWF showing development in the BOC around Tuesday 06/28 a little later than the GFS.



This map shows a lowering of 500mb heights in the BOC by day 10.

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS just keep the western Gulf percolating clear into July!

[Rgv20]

0zGFS and Nogaps agree on a broad low around the yucatan in the 180hr mark that would put it on Monday 06/27.

0zNogaps


0zGFS

[cycloneye]

This is super long range and we know the drill,but is the first time this season that the long range GFS has a interesting feature in the MDR by July 7. Now,let's see if the model drops it quickly,or it stays with it and later,other models join.

[GCANE]

00Z CMC was showing a deep warm core spinning up off GA coast and tracking along the Gulf Stream the July 4 weekend.

Now, 12Z GFS has jumped on board.



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F27%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All

[floridasun78]

that area north PR grow from this morning

[cycloneye]

That area you see is a interaction between a tropical wave and an upper low,so no chance to develop.

[floridasun78]

we may not see A storm untill late july

[lebron23]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

[tailgater]

we may not see A storm untill late july

I know you meant late June.

[lebron23]

GFS has been showing a somewhat consistent storm hitting s/middle texas around 240 hours.

[SETXWXLADY]

GFS has been showing a somewhat consistent storm hitting s/middle texas around 240 hours.

ECMWF second night of showing a low. Takes into TX/LA around same time.

[NDG]

Tropical wave approaching 50W will have to watched, this the tropical wave that both the GFS & ECMWF have been showing development in their past few runs for next week as it gets in the western Caribbean/southern GOM.
GFS ensembles have been wanting to weaken the southern ridge for next week, so any tropical development by then in the western Caribbean will have to be watched.

[GCANE]

FIM is latching onto a potent wave entering the West GOM around July 7th.


Shows it developing and making a track toward the Houston area.