Global model runs discussion

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Javlin
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2141 Postby Javlin » Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:52 am

I can always dream there, Mike :D but seriously I see nothing out there now that would seem worthy of that development. The local met even brought this action up on the News last night as we are all hoping for a break in this drought.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2142 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:54 am

Here we go again...12z GFS showing a 1003mb system and very heavy rain spreading along the entire Gulf coast
[img]Image

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[img]Image

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#2143 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:01 pm

We all want some rain but I don't want another Allison.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2144 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:02 pm

:uarrow: Here we go again...12z GFS showing a 1003mb system and very heavy rain spreading along the entire Gulf coast
I sure hope that forecast comes true, we are parched! :grrr:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2145 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:11 pm

Its all well and good at what the gfs is showing. Sure hoping it comes to fruition but not holding my breath, especially after the terrible performance it had last year. These models are about as accurate as my cities 7 day forecast. So hears hoping for some good tropical rains and the models can show it every day as they wish, but wont believe it until I actually see some kind of disturbance in the gulf.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2146 Postby Rainband » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:29 pm

gfs lol
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#2147 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:03 pm

Here we go 12zECMWF showing development in the BOC around Tuesday 06/28 a little later than the GFS.

Image

This map shows a lowering of 500mb heights in the BOC by day 10.

Image
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#2148 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jun 19, 2011 8:15 pm

The GFS just keep the western Gulf percolating clear into July!
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#2149 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:28 am

0zGFS and Nogaps agree on a broad low around the yucatan in the 180hr mark that would put it on Monday 06/27.

0zNogaps
Image

0zGFS
Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2150 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:57 am

This is super long range and we know the drill,but is the first time this season that the long range GFS has a interesting feature in the MDR by July 7. Now,let's see if the model drops it quickly,or it stays with it and later,other models join.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2151 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 27, 2011 11:25 am

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2152 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:13 pm

Image that area north PR grow from this morning
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2153 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:19 pm

:uarrow: That area you see is a interaction between a tropical wave and an upper low,so no chance to develop.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2154 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:59 pm

we may not see A storm untill late july
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#2155 Postby lebron23 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:01 pm

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2156 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:04 pm

floridasun78 wrote:we may not see A storm untill late july


I know you meant late June. :cheesy:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2157 Postby lebron23 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 11:57 pm

GFS has been showing a somewhat consistent storm hitting s/middle texas around 240 hours.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2158 Postby SETXWXLADY » Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:04 am

lebron23 wrote:GFS has been showing a somewhat consistent storm hitting s/middle texas around 240 hours.


ECMWF second night of showing a low. Takes into TX/LA around same time.

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#2159 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 29, 2011 6:36 am

Tropical wave approaching 50W will have to watched, this the tropical wave that both the GFS & ECMWF have been showing development in their past few runs for next week as it gets in the western Caribbean/southern GOM.
GFS ensembles have been wanting to weaken the southern ridge for next week, so any tropical development by then in the western Caribbean will have to be watched.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2160 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 29, 2011 6:53 am

FIM is latching onto a potent wave entering the West GOM around July 7th.


Shows it developing and making a track toward the Houston area.



Image
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