Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

#41 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:43 am

Moisture building in the SW Caribbean, the NAM and the GFS both show this moving NW into the BOC in the next few days. Then hopefully it will be pulled north as the trough appoaches out of the Plains.

#42 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:26 am

Vortex wrote:Living here in fort lauderdale for 39 years I can't recall a June so dry thus far. It tends to be the rainiest month it's anything but. Something has to give. According to NWSMiami the drought indicator is "exceptional" for the area. I thinks it's safe to say at some point this summer or fall a significant rainfall or 2 is quite likely. Mother nature always balances things out.

looks very dry for at least the next 10 days

#43 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:05 am

The tropical wave that will eventually move into the southern GOM/BOC and that could become our suspect area has exploded with convection in the past few hours, but I think it has to do more with interaction with the upper level trough in the eastern GOM as surface pressures are somewhat high and have not fallen compared to 24hrs ago. Heck its satellite presentation looks better than 92E this morning.

#44 Postby **lrak** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:30 am

I hope this doesn't turn out to be a week long tease.

Nimbus · #45 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:41 am

This area was just north of Panama a few days ago. The only way this will develop in the BOC is if the persistent trough that has been there for over a week lifts out. At the moment the trough over the BOC is in a good position to add some shear lift to the convection.

#46 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 9:07 am

Tropical development looks unlikely due to moderate to strong westerly shear in the central to northern Gulf. As for being a "drought buster", almost certainly not. Maybe enough to water the trees/grass if we're lucky in TX/LA coastal areas.

StarmanHDB · #47 Postby **StarmanHDB** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 9:36 am

wxman57 wrote:Tropical development looks unlikely due to moderate to strong westerly shear in the central to northern Gulf. As for being a "drought buster", almost certainly not. Maybe enough to water the trees/grass if we're lucky in TX/LA coastal areas.

SHEARLY you can't be serious!
:lol:

Frank2 · #48 Postby **Frank2** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:28 am

Looks like this will be mentioned in the next TWO, though as others said with strong shear even warm ocean temps cannot make a system:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Sanibel · #49 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:35 am

Obviously drawing together. We'll see if conditions allow it to hold together.

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:47 am

The Belize radar shows plenty of rain moving into the Yucatan from the east.

#51 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:50 am

On the move

#52 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:51 am

Joe Bastardi

Texas... some rain and cooler weather should get down there next week!!!
western gulf may light up with disturbed weather too.

#53 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:03 am

I don't see upper level conditions that bad developing in the southern GOM/BOC next week as an upper level anticyclone develops over the area as forecasted by models, the only negativity that I see is the tropical wave's trough could get too close to the Mexican coast in GOM and any surface low pressure that wants to get going will have a hard time getting going because of proximity to land.

#54 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:28 am

That area definitely caught my eye this morning.

#55 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:32 am

12z GFS still showing the area of disturbed weather with very heavy rain in the western Gulf....certainly a change in the pattern we have been seeing.

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#56 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:35 am

Down to 1003mb with very low shear

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southerngale · #57 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 1:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:Tropical development looks unlikely due to moderate to strong westerly shear in the central to northern Gulf. As for being a "drought buster", almost certainly not. Maybe enough to water the trees/grass if we're lucky in TX/LA coastal areas.

Dream squasher!

flwxwatcher · #58 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:34 pm

Still not buying the GFS , though I hope I am wrong and it would be nice to see some other model support for the GFS solution. .

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:00 pm

flwxwatcher wrote:Still not buying the GFS , though I hope I am wrong and it would be nice to see some other model support for the GFS solution. .

GFS is not alone anymore as ECMWF has a low in BOC,although the timeframe is later than GFS.

#60 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:08 pm

Look at the nice release of heat represented by the 500mb anomalies going on the BOC.

Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

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