#604 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jun 19, 2011 11:09 am
Brownsville morning discussion.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MAJOR MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN ERODE AWAY THE RIDGE
WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS OVERALL WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS THE
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATE IN THE WEEK THE
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING IN A MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS BACK IN PLACE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE TX COASTLINE FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS COMBINATION OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROFFING AND
THE REBOUNDING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL POPS
FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONV DURING MOST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD GIVING DEEP SOUTH TX SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF TO THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE
OVERALL CLD COVER WHICH WILL IN TURN TEND TO LOWER THE OVERALL
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES A LITTLE IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE 500 MB
FIELDS THROUGH DAY 7. HOWEVER BIGGER DISAGREEMENTS SHOWS UP
BETWEEN THE TWO LONG TERM MODELS CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FIELDS. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE MOISTURE POOLED MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS
DIFFERENCE IS RESULTING IN A LITTLE DRIER FORECAST FROM THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BELIEVE THAT
THE DRIER GFS RUN MAY BE AN TEMP OUTLIER AND THAT THE NEXT SEVERAL
RUNS WILL LIKELY SHOW MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. FOR TEMPS THE
GFS MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT AND WILL
STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX MAXES AND MINS.
NWS in Brownsville not ready to jump on the dry scenario for now.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.