Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

#141 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:25 pm

Well this is interesting. 12z Euro Ensembles are leaning strongly toward a system in the BOC

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#142 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:40 pm

And 18z GFS holds serve

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#143 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:48 pm

I am not holding my breath this time to see if the GFS comes true about a possible BOC system, could be just another normal fall of surface pressures like they are right now down there but nothing close to any deep convection like it was adverstising last week.

#144 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:48 pm

So an update for today. We have the GFS, NOGAPS, CANADIAN, and EURO ENSEMBLES on board for development and a favorable MJO at the time models are calling for development. Best shot so far this season imo.

#145 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:50 pm

NDG wrote:I am not holding my breath this time to see if the GFS comes true about a possible BOC system, could be just another normal fall of surface pressures like they are right now down there but nothing close to any deep convection like it was adverstising last week.

This go round the GFS has support from the Canadian, Euro ensembles and favorable MJO. While I would not hold my breath for development, this certainly has more support than anything else so far this season.

#146 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:57 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
NDG wrote:I am not holding my breath this time to see if the GFS comes true about a possible BOC system, could be just another normal fall of surface pressures like they are right now down there but nothing close to any deep convection like it was adverstising last week.

This go round the GFS has support from the Canadian, Euro ensembles and favorable MJO. While I would not hold my breath for development, this certainly has more support than anything else so far this season.

Lets see if model support continues through the next few days, if they do not drop like flies I will start believing in the possibilty of development.

#147 Postby **Rgv20** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:10 pm

Euro ensembles showing some spread in sea level pressure in the western gulf of mexico around next Wednesday.

#148 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:24 pm

18z Nogaps is a tad aggressive with our system :wink:

#149 Postby **BigA** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18z Nogaps is a tad aggressive with our system

Ivanhater, do you have the link for that NOGAPS model? I had a site for it last year, but I can't find it now.

Much thanks.

#150 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:45 pm

BigA wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:18z Nogaps is a tad aggressive with our system

Ivanhater, do you have the link for that NOGAPS model? I had a site for it last year, but I can't find it now.

Much thanks.

No problem. Here you go.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

#151 Postby **MGC** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:48 pm

Seems the NOGAPS and Canada model are almost always too aggressive....but, a weak low along the gulf coast would be welcomed......MGC

Javlin · #152 Postby **Javlin** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:05 pm

Mike that NOGAPS seems to be a coming from a true Carib. system coming through the Yucatan Channel from the SE and not from the BOC hence the reason for a more intense system.I would believe that morso than something from the BOC ATM just have to see if WX57 puts the hex on himself :lol:

Garnet1995 · #153 Postby **Garnet1995** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:25 pm

I am sure it will be something...as I have a trip (first) to Pensacola....I want to see what Florida is all about...

...so sounds about 100 % there will be a system somewhere along I-10 between Houston and Florida...lol

#154 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:29 pm

Garnet1995 wrote:I am sure it will be something...as I have a trip (first) to Pensacola....I want to see what Florida is all about......so sounds about 100 % there will be a system somewhere along I-10 between Houston and Florida...lol

Enjoy the gorgeous beaches while you are here!

#155 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:38 pm

And the 00z GFS has not backed off

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#156 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:13 am

and 00z nogaps

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#157 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:54 am

Continues to raise an eyebrow with each passing day. To say the least it looks as though portions of the gulf coast may very well indeed receive some significant rainfall in due time.

KWT · #158 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:14 am

Models do seem quite keen on this area...

My main feeling though is its going to get shunted into Mexico before it has any real chance of developing.

Nothing too agressive yet on the models, obviously the lesser models jumping on it but can't take that too seriously, GFS does develop what looks like a depression/low end TS and the ECM develops possibliy a TD.

#159 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:35 am

And nothing on the 00Z Canadian or Euro. Looks bogus to me. Just like last weeks predictions from the same models of a storm today.

ronjon · #160 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:59 am

06Z GFS further north and more agressive.

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