Global model runs discussion

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GCANE
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2221 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 11, 2011 5:52 am

00Z GFS is maintaining the CV wave.

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#2222 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:44 am

i hope we dont have any storm next week i going on vacation to miami beach do any model run show any system for next week?
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#2223 Postby StormTracker » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:22 am

floridasun78 wrote:i hope we dont have any storm next week i going on vacation to miami beach do any model run show any system for next week?

Only the GFS is hinting at something possibly, but look at the bright side, at least you'll be close to home if anything!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2224 Postby flwxwatcher » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:22 am

GCANE wrote:00Z GFS is maintaining the CV wave.



Yes by day 16 it brings a system into the Bahamas but in the shorter term it's also hinting at it seems, at some home brew off the SE Coast this week-end.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2225 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:01 am

Another development worth noting is the empirical MJO wave propagation has made a major shift to suggesting rising air (more tropical thunderstorm chances) for the next several weeks...

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2226 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 11, 2011 12:14 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS is on drugs... :lol: it doesnt know what to develope...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2227 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 11, 2011 12:29 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC not impressed...developes at 144hr in the EPAC....
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2228 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2011 12:34 pm

While NOGAPS and CMC do their weird things, :) GFS continues with another run showing the early parade of strong tropical waves from Africa.

12z GFS animation
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2229 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:22 pm

Apart from the parade of strong waves,GFS also shows a small area just off the SC/NC coast.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2230 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:26 pm

12Z spins it up Thursday developing into a borderline warm core.


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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2231 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Apart from the parade of strong waves,GFS also shows a small area just off the SC/NC coast.

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So does the 12z Euro

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2232 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:09 pm

Taking a look at the 12z Euro...we are starting to see signs of the Gom death ridge getting some weakness in it...interesting

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GFS supports the idea



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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2233 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:10 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Another development worth noting is the empirical MJO wave propagation has made a major shift to suggesting rising air (more tropical thunderstorm chances) for the next several weeks...

Image


Steve,and to reinforce what you posted, the GFS ensembles and UKMET ensembles have the wet phase of MJO hanging around octanges 1-8 to almost the end of this month. All this means that things may pick up soon in the Atlantic basin.

GFS ensembles

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UKMET Ensembles

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#2234 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jul 11, 2011 6:51 pm

Seems that the long range 12zGFS does not have the support of its ensembles members and the European Ensembles with regards to breaking the GOM ridge.

12zGFS by day 10
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12zGFS Ensembles day 10
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And finally the 12zECMWF Ensembles want the ridge to stick around by day 10
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2235 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:03 pm

it will break as we get closer to the end of the month. The odds are against it as it has been hanging on for months now.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2236 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:04 pm

ROCK wrote:it will break as we get closer to the end of the month. The odds are against it as it has been hanging on for months now.



Will that mean rain for all of us?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2237 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:45 pm

Looking at the 0Z gfs, I am feeling ever more confident in 0/0/0 for July.
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#2238 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:38 am

The 0z ECM does try and develop something very close to the coast off Carlolina...a further 50-100 mile eastward shunt and it'd probably develop into a TD/TS as it tries to cut-off from the front...
but doesn't quite make it this run.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2239 Postby plasticup » Tue Jul 12, 2011 7:51 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
ROCK wrote:it will break as we get closer to the end of the month. The odds are against it as it has been hanging on for months now.



Will that mean rain for all of us?

Eventually, if the ridge really does break down. But the longrange models have been showing that for a while, without much success.
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Re:

#2240 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:13 am

KWT wrote:The 0z ECM does try and develop something very close to the coast off Carlolina...a further 50-100 mile eastward shunt and it'd probably develop into a TD/TS as it tries to cut-off from the front...
but doesn't quite make it this run.



It does look pretty good on the EURO and the GFS is doing the same thing in that general area also. Something to watch this week-end .



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... t=Loop+All



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