JTWC has peak intensity at 135 kts.
WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.5N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.4N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.0N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 28.4N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 148.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO FORM A 10-NM RAGGED EYE. A MICROWAVE EYE IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON A 131707Z AMSU-B PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE,
COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH 05 DEGREES TO THE
NORTHEAST, ARE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD UP TO TAU 72, AFTERWHICH, THE TRACK BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS AND ADJUSTS EASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, BRINGING THE PEAK INTENSITY UP TO 135 KNOTS
AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON
WITH INTENSITIES AROUND 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHERE UKMET AND GFDN REMAIN ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AS A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. TO
THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE ARE NOGAPS AND GFS, FAVORING A TIGHTER
TURN IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER-RECEEDING STR. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48, ACCOUNTING FOR A MINIMAL
DCI. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
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