Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

This wave recently designated pouch PO7L has a big wet field that may reduce the dry conditions in the Atlantic.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html

[SeminoleWind]

i wonder when NHC puts another yellow circle on the board for this?

[cycloneye]

For those members who may be wondering,what the heck is a pouch? Well,here is the explanation by this group of scientists that study all about the tropical waves and the model guidance different scenarios for all the waves.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

[JonathanBelles]

I thought that pouch thing was only a one year program. hmm. One more thing to explain. lol

[cycloneye]

I thought that pouch thing was only a one year program. hmm. One more thing to explain. lol

I thought too that they would not do the research this year as they started around late June. This is their 4th year doing this,and aparently,it looks like they will not stop after 2011.

[stormhunter7]

Although PREDICT is over, pouch-tracking continues. It was started again for this season on 5 July 2011.


(Per Facebook page)

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian is much more aggressive

[Ivanhater]

Well this is interesting...

Ron and I were discussing earlier about the ridge building back in during the long range as this disturbance is approaching the U.S.

The long range Canadian builds the ridge back in and slams it into the SE coast

[Hurricaneman]

I see mostly troughiness on the canadian which means recurve, but I see a Rebuilding ridge after 144 which means a hit on the southeast coast, if the troughiness stays, might be a threat to bermuda, but if the ridge builds quicker, this could pull something similar to an andrew track, but with much less intensity, bears watching

[Brent]

The 0z Euro

[lester]

Just in time for your vacation

[Brent]

Just in time for your vacation

Of course...

[somethingfunny]

If this becomes a major hurricane down the line and a huge news story, a lot of us will want to go back to this thread and read the analysis and speculation from the formative stages of the storm, but a lot of the images posted in this thread are going to disappear within 24 hours and all the educational value will be lost!

Please use http://www.tinypic.com or http://www.imageshack.com or another free image hosting website to save your screencaps of model runs, CIMSS analyses, satellite loops, and all other auto-updating jpg pages.

I know it's late, but thanks in advance y'all.

[GCANE]

Good vorticity at 40W from 850mb to 500mb.

GFS showing it will be in a low shear environment to the islands.


http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011 ... _loop.html

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011 ... _loop.html

[wxman57]

Certainly looks like a development threat to me. Quite a circulation developing now on MIMIC imagery. Could be a southeast U.S. threat late next week. Should be an invest today.

[Vortex]

Nice presentation developing, good environmental conditions. Certainly looks to become a player...

[GCANE]

The strong water vapor north of the convection looks to me like it is protecting the wave from SAL.

[cycloneye]

From Crown Weather services:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

A tropical wave near 40 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic has had some deeper convection develop around it during the overnight hours. This tropical wave definitely needs to be watched very closely as environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development for at least the next several days. The only impediment that I see that may prevent this tropical wave from developing into a tropical cyclone is dry, dusty African air just ahead of it between 45 and 55 West Longitude. Even with that, I think this tropical wave will end up becoming our next named storm, Cindy.

The latest Canadian and European model guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone with the Canadian model forecasting a track into the Carolinas in about 9 to 10 days from now and the European model guidance forecasting a track into the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now. The GFS model continues to forecast no development from this tropical wave and the NOGAPS model waits to develop this system until it is just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday.

Ok, my analysis is that this tropical wave is showing a good amount of rotation and contains quite a bit of moisture around it. I have a strong suspicion that this will develop into a tropical depression and a tropical storm by this weekend into early next week. Looking further out, the overall pattern for next week may feature a fairly strong and stout ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. If this pans out, then this tropical wave may pose a threat to the southeastern US coast or eastern Gulf of Mexico around the middle part of next week. This is just speculation right now and a lot can change with the upper level patterns over the next 7 to 10 days.

I will be monitoring this tropical wave very closely and will definitely keep you all updated on the latest"".

[NDG]

From Crownweather services:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

A tropical wave near 40 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic has had some deeper convection develop around it during the overnight hours. This tropical wave definitely needs to be watched very closely as environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development for at least the next several days. The only impediment that I see that may prevent this tropical wave from developing into a tropical cyclone is dry, dusty African air just ahead of it between 45 and 55 West Longitude. Even with that, I think this tropical wave will end up becoming our next named storm, Cindy.

The latest Canadian and European model guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone with the Canadian model forecasting a track into the Carolinas in about 9 to 10 days from now and the European model guidance forecasting a track into the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now. The GFS model continues to forecast no development from this tropical wave and the NOGAPS model waits to develop this system until it is just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday.

Ok, my analysis is that this tropical wave is showing a good amount of rotation and contains quite a bit of moisture around it. I have a strong suspicion that this will develop into a tropical depression and a tropical storm by this weekend into early next week. Looking further out, the overall pattern for next week may feature a fairly strong and stout ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. If this pans out, then this tropical wave may pose a threat to the southeastern US coast or eastern Gulf of Mexico around the middle part of next week. This is just speculation right now and a lot can change with the upper level patterns over the next 7 to 10 days.

I will be monitoring this tropical wave very closely and will definitely keep you all updated on the latest"".

One thing that Rob leaves out about last night's ECMWF run is that before it forecasts the track of the possible system into the GOM is that it tracks it across southern FL.

[NDG]

The strong water vapor north of the convection looks to me like it is protecting the wave from SAL.

Yeap, good example of a "pouch" this tropical wave is in.