ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE is improving. Currently around 4000. RUC had it at about 3000 a few hours ago.

[Aric Dunn]

The surface circ is likely to develop A little farther west of the blob. 1km visible hints at a weak LLC trying to develop about 20n 85W watch for convection to develop in that area later,.

[HouTXmetro]

What did the Euro show?

[tailgater]

GCANE can you tell me and sure others that aren't sure what CAPE is?

[HurricaneBrain]

I put an X to the 12z NHC best track positioning, there's probably a good 20 miles error out of my part too far south, but you can get the idea.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... sxoIC9.jpg

That has the look of a TS! Lol.

[HURAKAN]

GCANE can you tell me and sure others that aren't sure what CAPE is?

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather.

[tailgater]

GCANE can you tell me and sure others that aren't sure what CAPE is?

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather.

Thanks Hurakan, I thought from looking at the chart it had something to do with rising air.

[Rgv20]

0zEuro forecast the 850mb vorticity to be in Brownsville by Friday afternoon but never closes off a low pressure. The 0zEuro and the 6zNam are basically the same in regards to their forecast but the Nam is stronger with 90l.

Sorry I would provide some maps but Im at work

[GCANE]

GCANE can you tell me and sure others that aren't sure what CAPE is?

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather.

Thanks Sandy.

[latitude_20]

[tailgater]

My guess as to where a LLC may be forming. 21.1N 82 6W.

[Stormcenter]

90L looks like it is getting it's act together this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Low level inflow is much better than yesterday on the western side. In my opinion, this definitely should be code orange, and code red isn't the unreasonable given current environmental conditions. The environment is moist, wind shear is dropping, and SSTs are very warm. It seems like 90L is on its way to becoming our next tropical cyclone.

[tolakram]

They switched to high speed scanning some time this morning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

remember you can edit this URL to change location and num frames, etc.

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5

Looks like west cloud movement starting to the left of the blob.

[NDG]

I am starting to see now a SW inflow of low level clouds into the storms, very close to the 12z best of track positioning by the NHC. We could have a weak LLC now developing. Deep convection continues refire. The MLC is still very noticeable south of the Isle of Youth.

[SouthDadeFish]

I am starting to see now a SW inflow of low level clouds into the storms, very close to the 12z best of track positioning by the NHC. We could have a weak LLC now developing. Deep convection continues refire. The MLC is still very noticeable south of the Isle of Youth.

That's what I'm watching as well. Once that inflow switches to a more westerly direction, then we have a LLC. 90L is very close.

[Ivanhater]

Would you look at that....still organizing like some of us suspected yesterday evening.

[KWT]

Much improved since yesterday, convection is stronger though its still a little unstable with no one area being dominant for more than 6hrs which is probably the main reason why any LLC hasn't formed...convection is decent but for the Caribbean its nothing too outlandish.

This is where Dolly pulled it together in 2008...could well be se eing a similar thing trying to happen here.

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane hunters tagged a flight

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 26 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 27/1530Z
D. 22.0N 87.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't want to stir the pot or anything, but what's stopping possible Don from exploding in the Gulf if he develops in the next 24-36 hours? Shear is forecast to be very low, and the waters are crazy warm... What am I missing?