ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Continuing to expand deep convection rapidly over the (possible) LLC

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

[HURRICANELONNY]

Come on 90L. You can do it! Texas needs the rain bad.

[ROCK]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

Why? This system is days away from Texas. If it becomes even a Tropical Depression you know the media will saturate coverage with it. But right now, why should they? This is a Invest that may become a Tropical Storm that may become a hurricane that may reach the US mainland. That is hardly something to get worked up over.

I am a big fan of the media limiting its wild speculation on all kinds of issues, but existential threats in particular. If they reported on every Invest the population would be fatigued in weeks and wouldn't respond when a serious threat emerged.

Bro, I got family that lives on the beach (maybe 2 feet above sea level) no sea wall....Dad passed this year so its just my mom. There is all kinds of stuff you have to do and I live about 2 hours away....You werent here for Ike..I was in the water on the west end up to my knees 48hrs before they called for evacs. Sorry if I get a itchy trigger finger every once in a while but living on the coast this crap is real life and death type stuff.

Now pardon me while I go watch some more Nancy Grace coverage of the Casey Anthony case.....

[sallytx]

How likely is the possibility of it moving onshore closer to Houston/Galveston (if it continues to develop)? I like to be prepared ahead of everyone else even if nothing comes of it.

[TexWx]

Tireman/rnmm
I also rode out Alicia in Texas City. (When I was 11).

Creepy indeed.

Wxman, I mean to say that has been "parked," but I didn't know it was supposed to move that soon.

[Ivanhater]

I see a lot of guests lurking today. Take some time to register and start posting, we don't bite

Mod duty done, back to the system

[RL3AO]

How likely is the possibility of it moving onshore closer to Houston/Galveston (if it continues to develop)? I like to be prepared ahead of everyone else even if nothing comes of it.

Its been moving northwest today so its going north of forecast. It wouldn't hurt to be prepared though. If nothing happens, they you have more stuff for August/September when the season really gets going.

[lrak]

Come on 90L. You can do it! Texas needs the rain bad.

and waves....woot.

[hicksta]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

Why? This system is days away from Texas. If it becomes even a Tropical Depression you know the media will saturate coverage with it. But right now, why should they? This is a Invest that may become a Tropical Storm that may become a hurricane that may reach the US mainland. That is hardly something to get worked up over.

I am a big fan of the media limiting its wild speculation on all kinds of issues, but existential threats in particular. If they reported on every Invest the population would be fatigued in weeks and wouldn't respond when a serious threat emerged.

Bro, I got family that lives on the beach (maybe 2 feet above sea level) no sea wall....Dad passed this year so its just my mom. There is all kinds of stuff you have to do and I live about 2 hours away....You werent here for Ike..I was in the water on the west end up to my knees 48hrs before they called for evacs. Sorry if I get a itchy trigger finger every once in a while but living on the coast this crap is real life and death type stuff.

Now pardon me while I go watch some more Nancy Grace coverage of the Casey Anthony case.....

I feel you on that bro.

[Ivanhater]

Talk around the blogs from the pros feel this could be a significant event along the coast....get prepared if you have not already.

[cycloneye]

850 mb vorticity looks stronger.

[hicksta]

Im just concerned with the intensity that this system will have... I fear we all want rain, but to much of a good thing is a bad thing... Especially with the drought we are in, the ground will become saturated very quickly and then flooding will commence and could be devastating.

[nicole]

nOOb here.. ;D Also my FIRST POST!!
Was wondering if there is still any good chance this will take a more northern track towards the TX/LA area. Most of the models seem to all take it across mexico....which would be a HUGE bummer!! We need the rain oh so bad here in east texas!!!

[hurricanedude]

well....Mike(ivanhater) and myself bite...but the rest of the folks dont...so yeah, join and have fun!

[hicksta]

nOOb here.. ;D Also my FIRST POST!!
Was wondering if there is still any good chance this will take a more northern track towards the TX/LA area. Most of the models seem to all take it across mexico....which would be a HUGE bummer!! We need the rain oh so bad here in east texas!!!

Alot of the tropical models have moved farther north.... It is a wait and see game

[RL3AO]

nOOb here.. ;D Also my FIRST POST!!
Was wondering if there is still any good chance this will take a more northern track towards the TX/LA area. Most of the models seem to all take it across mexico....which would be a HUGE bummer!! We need the rain oh so bad here in east texas!!!

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Texas is starting to look more and more likely. TX/LA might be a bit far north. I'm starting to get the feeling that could be something you don't want to make landfall near you.

[KWT]

cycloneye, thats about the strongest I've seen the vort since this system was coming towards the Caribbean.

Any LLC is pretty small since looking at the lower level winds to the west are only showing very weak motion to the south, as you'd expect with a circulation. Still does look like we have some sort of circulation there where people have been pointing out.

[Sanibel]

Radar was deceptive. It is just SW of Juventude. Should shoot the Channel...

[Air Force Met]

I think this ridge is quite comparable to 1980 but I also agree that there are a few weaker areas of the ridge and lately it seems like they've been mainly in the Central Gulf Coast area. Otherwise, this ridge has dominated the Four Corners/Plains/Great Lakes/East Coast ... until the last few days when a back-door cold front has eroded some of the ridge on the eastern end.

I'm gonna chime in here for the first time this season (since there is actually something worth talking about).

The ridge is comparable to 1980…as a whole…but there are differences. In 1980, as Allen was approaching the Texas Coast, the high was anchored over MS/AL and was ridging into OK…then over into NM/AZ…then BACK into FL. The setup with this system, according to the GFS, EURO and UKMET (and even the NAM), is that the upper level ridging will move NEward over the next 2 days so that by 48 hours (Thursday morning) when it is in the central Gulf, the ridge will be located from GA/SC NWwrd to TN to MO). Over the next 24 hours, the ridge will then build westward and in intensity.

In Allen’s case, the ridge did not move much 2 days before landfall…and built westward the week before landfall (probably due to the SIZE of Allen helping build it somewhat). That won’t happen here.

So…there are similarities and some differences. The MAIN difference (besides forecasted location of the ridge) is the size of the system. Allen was HUGE. Therefore…it bumped up against the ridge much sooner than this system will. Allen just moved along the edgeof the ridge once it stopped building westward. This system will have a chance to bump along the weaknesses.

So…IMO…landfall probably north of the Rio Grande…b/w Corpus and Matagorda. But as with anything…a lot depends on when it gets a LLC. Given the warm waters (higher than normal TCHP) unusually close to the coast, pretty moist environment and favorable FORECASTED (note the concern) upper level environment, I see no reason why we shouldn’t see a hurricane IF (BIG OLD IF) it can get going in the first place.

In other words: Once it GETS going…it SHOULD go.

[NDG]

He's blowing up right over our (possible) LLC we found!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... noewAZ.jpg

thats it....and its only going to ramp up even more sitting over 88F water with light shear....

Remember who said first to look SW of the Isle of Youth