ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#1361 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:27 pm

Sure seems to be small in size. Don't these small storms ramp up very quickly as well as poof fairly quickly also?
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re:

#1362 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:31 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Sure seems to be small in size. Don't these small storms ramp up very quickly as well as poof fairly quickly also?


If conditions are favorable, yes. Smaller systems such as this tend to ramp up very quickly if conditions allow it.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Re:

#1363 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:31 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:I have just found a west wind reading at 25 knots from a ship nearby:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

1011 mb pressure, winds west northwest @ 25 knots...looks believable to me...

Click on ship reports


I found a ship through noaa reporting at 2100hrs GMT 22kts I think it might be different or maybe the same.
http://tropicwatch.info/ship.jpg


Same ship. Report appears bogus. Wind direction 180 deg off.
0 likes   

User avatar
barometerJane61
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun May 30, 2010 8:27 am
Location: Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1364 Postby barometerJane61 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:33 pm




YES please! :cheesy: In Dallas we've had 25 straight days of temps of at least 100 degrees and no measurable rainfall since mid June.A TX?LA border landfall would most likely bring some rain our way
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1365 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:44 pm

The latest analysis of the 12z Forecast Steering charts for 90L suggest a WNW to NW thru at least Thursday morning with a bend to the West to WNW beyond that.

In my opinion from Port La Vaca to NE Mexico need to keep a very close eye on 90L.
Last edited by Rgv20 on Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1366 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:45 pm

Been playing catch up, reading through pages of posts on 90L. Doesn't look like much has changed strength wise since this morning. Organizational wise looks somewhat better. No definite llc yet either but looks to be slowly getting there. Found it funny that our NWS office didnt even mention this in the forecast discussion this morning or afternoon. They usually at least have something to say about the tropics when something is at least in the caribbean. Days ago they talked about 90L before it fell apart when it was nearing the islands, now nothing. Will hold off on making any predictions of where I think it could go and how strong as want to see what it does tonight and how it looks in the morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4227
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1367 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:45 pm

barometerJane61 wrote:



YES please! :cheesy: In Dallas we've had 25 straight days of temps of at least 100 degrees and no measurable rainfall since mid June.A TX?LA border landfall would most likely bring some rain our way


I think a TX landfall would be best for you and all of drought parched TX.
0 likes   

SETXPTNeches
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:10 pm
Location: Port Neches TX

#1368 Postby SETXPTNeches » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:54 pm

All I know is, that everytime the models suggest Corpus Christi, the storm decides otherwise and makes TX/LA border the target....
0 likes   
PN-G Indians #1
Rita & Ike

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

flwxwatcher
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 926
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 3:35 pm
Location: Central Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1369 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:04 pm

ronjon wrote:12z GFS - not surprising the GFDL goes to the same location.

Image


18Z GFS even further East, now into LA.
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re:

#1370 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:06 pm

SETXPTNeches wrote:All I know is, that everytime the models suggest Corpus Christi, the storm decides otherwise and makes TX/LA border the target....



Yep I agree, but this time of year it's possible.
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SETXPTNeches
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:10 pm
Location: Port Neches TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1371 Postby SETXPTNeches » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:06 pm

Lightening popping all around Mid County/Jefferson County TX right now!!!!

Back on topic...waiting for KFDM weather report!

Dang it, just lost my satelite....:)
0 likes   
PN-G Indians #1
Rita & Ike

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

#1372 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:08 pm

^ Crazy storms here in Orange. Just waiting for the NHC to update in this awesome weather. :D
0 likes   

SETXPTNeches
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:10 pm
Location: Port Neches TX

Re: Re:

#1373 Postby SETXPTNeches » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:09 pm

lrak wrote:
SETXPTNeches wrote:All I know is, that everytime the models suggest Corpus Christi, the storm decides otherwise and makes TX/LA border the target....



Yep I agree, but this time of year it's possible.



I know y'all need rain bad....I have friends at the Frio River....I bet you could walk across the river right now and never get wet...praying for some rain for y'all but nothing too serious!!!
0 likes   
PN-G Indians #1
Rita & Ike

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#1374 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:10 pm

Image

Latest closeup visible
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re:

#1375 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:11 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:^ Crazy storms here in Orange. Just waiting for the NHC to update in this awesome weather. :D



Ya'll are killing me! Enough with the bragging :D

Brown grass, slab cracks, NO Mosquitoes :P
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#1376 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:12 pm

Looks like the left side is getting squeezed and flatening
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1377 Postby rockyman » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:12 pm

18z GFS:

Image
0 likes   

stormywaves
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:36 pm
Location: Houston, Texas (Midtown)

Re:

#1378 Postby stormywaves » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:12 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:^ Crazy storms here in Orange. Just waiting for the NHC to update in this awesome weather. :D




Downtown Houston as usual we are getting nothing not a drop! It gets dark and then thats it :(
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#1379 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:14 pm

Well, the SW winds I was hoping to see from buoy 42056 have not happened, on top of the hour now reporting light SSE winds, looking at vis loop there is plenty of N to S moving low clouds to the west of the buoy, and perhaps convergence is happening right on top of the buoy.

Conditions at 42056 as of
(5:50 pm CDT)
2250 GMT on 07/26/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 101 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1380 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:16 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:I trust the Euro the most right now. It has shown the best consistency imo.


Yes it has, GFS and NAM has been hit or miss with 90l
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest